A take on my profile team 欧洲杯乌克兰VS奥地利
2021-06-21

Pavel

盈利高手

欧预赛

06/22 00:00

已完赛

解读理由:

Another fixture, where my beloved “end of season” approach is applicable.

Long before the Monday game between Ukraine and Austria, odds for a draw collapsed from standard 3.20 to 2.45 and then to current 2.05.

The premise in this tie is obvious and simple - two opposing teams are in the same boat and draw result takes them to play-offs stage unless some magical results do not occur in remaining 2 matchdays.Ukraine would then finish 2nd in group E and Austria would finish as one of the 4 best 3rd teams. To be on the safe side of things, Austria would need to secure a high scoring 2:2 draw - that way they’d be ahead of other contenders for the highest number of scored goals (one of the tie-breakers on level points).

Taking into account the history of similar games being played at big forums as the World Cup or EURO, usually both sides happily accept the outcome and settle for the mutually beneficial draw. One would argue regarding the odds for draw at 2.05 being short of any value, however, there is another side to the medal - imagine the unique level of importance and the risk of losing everything all due to being “fair” and “good sports”. I doubt many Austrians or Ukrainians will accuse their teams of unsportsmanlike conduct if they progress to the round of 16 at the end of the day.

You could consider some interesting side bets on special markets, like the total number of yellow cards in this game being under 3.5 or 4 - whatever the line is. As there is not intent to win and both settle for a draw, naturally cards should be at an absolute minimum.

The other special market to look at is the total number of corner kicks - traditionally games like these have very few earned corner kicks, simply due to lack of attacks and shots.

It is your call after all, but I personally can’t resist the temptation of taking the obvious outcome of this fixture.


另一场小组赛对决。

早在周一乌克兰和奥地利之间的比赛之前,平局的指数就从标准的 3.20 降至 2.45,然后再降至目前的 2.05。

这场平局的前提是明显而简单的——两支对垒球队在同一条船上,抽签结果将他们带入附加赛阶段,除非在剩余的 2 场比赛中没有出现一些神奇的结果。然后乌克兰将在 E 组和奥地利中获得第二名将作为 4 支最好的第 3 支球队之一结束。为了安全起见,奥地利需要确保以 2:2 的高分战平——这样他们才能领先于其他竞争者的进球数最多(平局上的决胜局之一) . 考虑到世界杯或欧洲杯等大型论坛上有过类似比赛的历史,通常双方都乐于接受结果并接受互惠互利的平局。有人会争辩说 2.05 平局的赔率没有任何价值,然而,奖牌还有另一面——想象一下独特的重要性水平以及由于“公平”和“良好的运动”而失去一切的风险。我怀疑如果他们在一天结束时进入 16 轮,许多奥地利人或乌克兰人会指责他们的球队有违反体育道德的行为。

由于没有赢的意图并且双方都接受平局,因此牌的数量绝对很少。

另一个需要关注的角球总数——传统上,此类比赛很少能赢得角球,仅仅是因为缺乏进攻和射门。

我个人非常倾向于平局。

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