In my perspective, Benfica should be able to win this match.

The first encounter between the two teams ended with a 2:1 home victory for Benfica. They should win even with a larger difference: Benfica's expected goals scored was 3.40, Toulouse's was 0.51.

Benfica is clearly a better team than Toulouse, and this should be visible on the pitch today.

In this game, I don't believe home field advantage is significant. Toulouse appears to be struggling in front of their home crowd this season in Ligue 1. They won only one of their ten home league matches (!!!). On the other side, Benfica appears to be quite strong on the road. In the Portuguese league, they won 8 of 11 road matches.

I believe Benfica has all of the necessary weapons to score more than one goal in today's game, which should be sufficient to win the game.

I don't trust Toulouse's defensive formation. Restes, their 18-year-old primary goalie, clearly has talent, but he is not yet up to this level. He only maintained four clean sheets in 22 league games. Currently, Toulouse's defense lacks consistency and stability. Toulouse has conceded more than one goal in five of its previous six matches in all competitions. Toulouse conceded one goal against Monaco during that period, but Monaco had 1.67 expected goals scored and were missing their top scorer (Ben Yedder) and top attacking midfielder (Golovin).

Benfica's weaponry is massive. 52 goals scored in 22 league games (!!!). It's not a coincidence. The expected goals scored model predicts a score of 50.9. Benfica has played 13 matches in all competitions since the middle of December, with 12 of them scoring more than once. With guys like Silva and Di Maria, they should be able to accomplish it again today.

在我看来，本菲卡应该能够赢得这场比赛。

两队的首次交锋以本菲卡2:1的主场胜利告终。即使差距更大，他们也应该获胜:本菲卡的预期进球数是3.40，图卢兹是0.51。

本菲卡显然是一支比图卢兹更好的球队，这在今天的球场上应该是显而易见的。

在这场比赛中，我不认为主场优势有多大。图卢兹在本赛季的法甲联赛中似乎在他们的主场观众面前挣扎。他们在10场主场联赛中只赢了1场。另一方面，本菲卡在客场表现得相当强劲。在葡萄牙联赛中，他们赢得了11场客场比赛中的8场。

我相信本菲卡拥有所有必要的武器，在今天的比赛中打进不止一个球，这应该足以赢得比赛。

我不相信图卢兹的防守阵型。雷斯特斯，他们18岁的主要门将，显然有天赋，但他还没有达到这个水平。他在22场联赛中只保持了4场不失球。目前，图卢兹的防守缺乏一致性和稳定性。图卢兹在过去的六场比赛中有五场失球超过一球。图卢兹在与摩纳哥的比赛中只丢了一个球，但摩纳哥的预期进球数为1.67，而且他们的最佳射手(本·耶德)和最佳攻击型中场(戈洛文)都没有上场。

本菲卡的武器是强大的。22场联赛打进52球(!!)这不是巧合。预期进球得分模型预测得分为50.9。自12月中旬以来，本菲卡已经在各项赛事中踢了13场比赛，其中12场进球不止一次。有像席尔瓦和迪玛利亚这样的球员，他们今天应该能够再次完成它。