Toulouse VS Benfica

Toulouse host Benfica for this UEFA Europa League Playoffs 1/16-finals second leg battle at Stadium Municipal very early Friday morning Beijing time. Football enthusiasts and us serious, profit-hungry football bettors can expect a match of better than average level by this league's standards here! Most importantly we have yet another very interesting game to bet on here! My fans and I have won a whopping 10 picks in a row betting on this league! There is, of course, no doubt at all about the fact that Benfica are the better team here, in terms of players' individual skill and experience on big international games in particular. They also have a much better coach. According to a German website Transfermarkt.com the Toulouse squad is valued at about 115 million euros.. This is a little too high. Benfica, the best of the four big teams in Portugal, are the much bigger team here with an estimated squad value of some 270 million! This is, in my expert opinion, still slightly low. I would say that around 290 would be a fair number. Benfica were the massively better team in the first leg last week in France. They would have deserved to win by a margin of at least two goals but the final score was 2-1! Indeed, they recorded many more goal attempts (28-6), shots on goal, shots off target, corner kicks, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. Moreover, they generated an impressive 3.67 in expected goals (xG). Poor Toulouse managed only 0.33!

Benfica are playing a very strong season in the Liga Portugal. Indeed, they currently top the standings with 55 points. Their score difference is very good – 52:15. They have lost just one game in this league all season! They have won five of their last six games - netted the ball a total of 19 times in these games. Indeed, they have numerous very talented offensive players and  awesome firepower - and a well-structured offense! Their defence has no obvious weaknesses and the defenders rarely make silly mistakes. In their last game they crushed Vizela 6-1 at home! It was a great performance as a whole. Benfica had 64% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts, shots on goal, shots off target, corner kicks, total passes, completed passes and dangerous attacks. Moreover, they generated an impressive 4.01 in xG. Toulouse, on the other hand, are playing a somewhat disappointing season in the French Ligue 1. They are in 13th place in this league with a total of 18 clubs. With a poor 23 points they are only one point away from the relegation zone! Their number of expected points (xPTS) is marginally higher though.. They have netted the ball only 22 times. The hosts' offense lack individual skill, creativity and passing accuracy at critical moments. Their defence is much worse than the number of goals conceded would suggest. Indeed, their number of expected goals -30- allowed (xGA) is 37.54. 

Toulouse will have to take risks in the second half - unless they manage to take a lead  -  here as they need to win and I do not believe this will end well for them.. Benfica are very dangerous on counter attacks! Toulouse are not used to playing active football against a team of Benfica's caliber and have not achieved good results at this level in the past.. However, it is very possible that Benfica will try to control the events on the pitch - killing the tempo of the game – consequently allowing Toulouse very few good scoring chances! In their last game they beat Monaco away from home but did not deserve the three points! Indeed, Monaco had 65% recorded more goal attempts (22-14), shots off target, total passes, completed passes, attacks )153-76) and dangerous attacks. Moreover, they generated more in expected goals (xG). Before losing to Benfica they lost to Nantes at home as solid favourites – priced around 2.10 to win by the bookies. Yes, they had 74% ball possession but recorded only one more goal attempt than Nantes – 3-2. I was not impressed with their performance. Based on my sophisticated, strongly data-based analysis Benfica have a 59% chance of winning. Odds of around 1.90 are available at the time of posting!

图卢兹VS本菲卡

北京时间周五凌晨，图卢兹主场迎战本菲卡，进行欧联杯附加赛1/16决赛次回合比赛。足球爱好者和我们这些认真的、追求利润的足球投注者可以期待一场高于联赛平均水平的比赛!最重要的是，我们还有一个非常有趣的游戏可以下注!我和我的球迷在这个联赛中连续赢得了10个选秀权!当然，毫无疑问，本菲卡在这里是一支更好的球队，尤其是从球员的个人技术和在大型国际比赛中的经验来看。他们也有一个更好的教练。根据德国网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，图卢兹队的价值约为1.15亿欧元。这有点太高了。本菲卡是葡萄牙四大豪门中实力最强的一支球队，在这里的规模要大得多，估计球队价值约为2.7亿欧元!以我的专业观点来看，这个数字仍然略低。我认为290个左右是一个合理的数字。本菲卡在上周与法国的首回合比赛中表现出色得多。他们本应该以至少两球的优势取胜，但最终比分是2-1!事实上，他们的进球次数(28胜6负)、射正、射偏、角球、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数都要多得多。此外，他们的预期进球(xG)达到了令人印象深刻的3.67。可怜的图卢兹只做到了0.33!

本菲卡本赛季在葡萄牙联赛中表现非常出色。事实上，他们目前以55分排名第一。他们的比分相差很大，52:15。他们整个赛季只输过一场比赛!他们在最近的六场比赛中赢了五场，在这些比赛中总共有19次进球。的确，他们有许多非常有天赋的进攻球员和令人敬畏的火力——以及一个结构良好的进攻!他们的防守没有明显的弱点，后卫很少犯愚蠢的错误。在上一场比赛中，他们在主场6-1击败了维拉!总的来说，这是一场伟大的表演。本菲卡有64%的控球率，并且记录了更多的进球尝试、射正、射偏、角球、总传球、完成传球和危险进攻。此外，它们在xG中生成了令人印象深刻的4.01。另一方面，图卢兹在法甲联赛中打出了一个令人失望的赛季。他们在这个联赛中排名第13位，共有18家俱乐部。他们只得了可怜的23分，离降级区只有1分之遥!他们的期望值(xPTS)略高一些。他们只进了22次球。主队的进攻缺乏个人技术、创造力和关键时刻的传球准确性。他们的防守比丢球数所显示的要糟糕得多。事实上，他们的预期失球数(xGA)是37.54。

图卢兹将不得不在下半场冒险——除非他们设法取得领先——因为他们需要赢球，我不相信他们会有好结果。本菲卡的反击非常危险!图卢兹不习惯在面对本菲卡这样的球队时踢得很积极，而且过去在这个级别的比赛中也没有取得好成绩。然而，本菲卡很有可能会试图控制球场上的事态——扼杀比赛的节奏——从而让图卢兹很少有好的进球机会!在上一场比赛中，他们在客场击败了摩纳哥，但他们配不上三分!事实上，摩纳哥的进球次数(22-14次)、射偏、总传球次数、完成传球次数、攻击次数(153-76次)和危险攻击次数比摩纳哥多65%。此外，他们产生了更多的预期目标(xG)。在输给本菲卡之前，他们在主场输给了南特队，他们是最受欢迎的球队——博彩公司开出的胜率在2.10左右。是的，他们有74%的控球率，但只比南特多了一个进球——3-2。他们的表现没有给我留下深刻印象。根据我的数据分析，本菲卡队有59%的获胜机会。大约1.90的赔率在发布的时候是可用的!