Latvia VS Croatia

Latvia welcome Croatia for this UEFA EURO Qualification Group D round 9 (officially) battle at Skonto stadions in Riga. However, in reality both Latvia have played seven games so far. Croatia, on the other hand, have played six games. A total of eight rounds will be played. Football enthusiasts and us serious football bettors – with a long-term profit in mind can expect a match of somewhat average level by international standards here. Most importantly, we have a very lucrative betting opportunity to increase the hot streak of 12/13 last picks won! I have posted one pick for Saturday and will be posting more picks soon! The three other teams in this group are Turkey, who have already qualified for the EURO 2024 played in Germany next summer, Wales and Armenia. The Croats have grabbed 10 points, Latvia have three points in their pocket. The top-2 teams qualify for EURO 2024. Wales have 10 points to their account. Armenia have taken seven points. If points are tied at the end of the competition, head-to-head matches will be the tie-breaker. Taking a look at the previous results in this group we can see that goal difference will not be of significance for Croatia and we have to realize this when betting on this game. Three countries are in a fierce fight for the 2nd place. Croatia, who finished in 3rd place in the World Cup last year, are the strongest of these three teams – no one probably disagrees on this. Even so, they have been a disappointment in this qualification. Their key player, perhaps the best player in the history of Croatian football, is clearly past his prime. He has not played that much for Real Madrid this season. Of course, he is still a good player with an amazing skill to pass the ball. Croatia are, of course, a significantly better team than Latvia. Theit have a substantial edge in all areas of the game. Even so, the odds on the visitors are way too low in both 1x2 betting and especially in handicap betting – at least at the time of writing this analysis late Friday evening Beijing time.. Indeed, the biggest bookies who accept the biggest bets from customers, offer Croatia odds of around 1.11-1.13. This is definitely too low. Based on my strongly data-based expert analysis they have a 79.50% chance of winning. The Latvians love their national team and I am positive Latvia will fight hard here – even if they end up trailing by a margin of two – or even three goals. This is Latvia's last home game in this qualification and surely they will want to give something back to their fans. Let's remember that Croatia have scored only 10 goals in this qualification so far. Away from home they have netted the ball only four times. Indeed, the +2.5 goals handicap on Latvia is a very lucrative bet here. Odds of around 1.70 are widely available at the time of posting this analysis. The chance of winning – once again – is 65%.Latvia have not lost any of their last 19 games at home or at a neutral location by a margin of more than two goals. I expect Latvia to defend in a structured way here - perhaps at times with all 11 men. They will probably strongly depend on quick counter attacks, corner kicks, free kicks – or a penalty kick to score here. Indeed, taking this - and Croatia's surprisingly lame offense – into account I see this math as more low-scoring than the bookies do. The probability of under 2.5 total goals is 48%.

In their last game Latvia lost 0-4 in Turkey as gigantic underdogs – priced around 20.00 to win on the betting market. Turkey definitely deserved the three points but the final score is still very misleading. Indeed, Latvia recorded a decent nine goal attempts – Turkey had 19 though. The hosts generated "only" 1.76 in expected goals (xG) – Latvia managed 0.95. Before this Latvia beat Armenia 2-0 at home as big underdogs according to the bookies – priced around 4.00 to win. Latvia's M. Oss was sent off after the second yellow card in the 52nd minute when the score was still 1-0. Especially after this they were excellent and D. Balodis scored 2-0 in the 68th minute. The visitors had 60% ball possession and recorded more goal attempts. However, Latvia recorded several more shots on target – 6-2! They also generated much more in expected goals (xG) 1.87-1.17 to be precise. Croatia, on the other hand, have lost two of their last games – scoring only one goal in these two games. In their last game they lost in Wales 1-2 in Wales as clear favourites on the betting market. Indeed, Wales were priced around 4.50 to win on the betting market. It was a massive win for them and surely a hit to Croatia's confidence – as well as chances of qualifying.. Croatia, as expected, had a high ball possession percentage - 66%. Wales, however, recorded more goal attempts and shots off goals (5-3). Croatia generated only marginally more in xG – 1.11-1.02 to be precise. Before this Croatia lost to Turkey 0-1 at home. They had 60% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (17-13), total passes, completed passes, attacks (148-88) and especially dangerous attacks – 73-36. There is, however, no denying the fact that Croatia were far from their normal level. They were priced around 1.60 by the bookies to win this game. Yes, they can improve but the bookies seem to give this factor too much emphasis! I need to mention that there is in the long-term suggesting that betting on a heavy favourite with a -1.5 goals handicap – not to mention a bigger one handicap – is – in the long run – a horrible idea! A good thing for my fans to remember when betting – with caution of course - on football in the future..  I would not be at all surprised to see the visitors scoring one or two goals and then aiming at lowering the tempo of the game - in order to save energy and avoid injuries. They are good at keeping the ball and Latvia are not a team that usually presses the opponent hard.. Latvia of course are a pretty limited team offensively too.. Luckily we do not need them to score  to win the bet here.. I need to mention that Croatia have a huge game coming up on Tuesday against Armenia..

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

拉脱维亚VS克罗地亚

拉脱维亚欢迎克罗地亚参加欧洲杯预选赛D组第9轮比赛，比赛将在里加的Skonto球场举行。然而，事实上，拉脱维亚到目前为止已经踢了7场比赛。另一方面，克罗地亚已经打了6场比赛。比赛共进行8轮。足球爱好者和我们认真的足球投注者-考虑到长期利润，可以期待一场以国际标准衡量的平均水平的比赛。最重要的是，我们有一个非常有利可图的投注机会，以增加12/13最后一次抽奖的连胜纪录!我已经发布了一个周六的选秀，很快会发布更多的选秀!同组的另外三支球队分别是土耳其、威尔士和亚美尼亚。土耳其已经获得了明年夏天在德国举行的2024年欧洲杯的参赛资格。克罗地亚拿到了10分，拉脱维亚拿到了3分。前两名的球队有资格参加2024年欧洲杯。威尔士队有10分。亚美尼亚已经得到7分。如果在比赛结束时得分相等，则进行肉搏赛。看看这个小组之前的结果，我们可以看到净胜球对克罗地亚来说并不重要，我们必须意识到这一点。三个国家正在为第二名展开激烈的竞争。克罗地亚去年在世界杯上获得第三名，是这三支球队中最强的——没有人会不同意这一点。即便如此，他们在这次资格赛中还是令人失望。他们的关键球员，也许是克罗地亚足球史上最好的球员，显然已经过了巅峰时期。本赛季他并没有为皇马踢那么多比赛。当然，他仍然是一名出色的球员，拥有惊人的传球技术。当然，克罗地亚是一支比拉脱维亚强得多的球队。他们在比赛的各个方面都有很大的优势。即便如此，客队的赔率还是太低了，尤其是在1x2投注中，尤其是在障碍投注中——至少在北京时间周五晚上写这篇分析的时候是这样的。事实上，那些接受客户最大赌注的最大博彩公司给克罗地亚开出的赔率约为1.11-1.13。这肯定太低了。根据我以数据为基础的专家分析，他们有79.50%的获胜机会。拉脱维亚人热爱他们的国家队，我相信拉脱维亚会在这里努力拼搏——即使他们最终落后2球，甚至3球。这是拉脱维亚在本届预选赛的最后一场主场比赛，他们肯定想给球迷一些回报。让我们记住克罗地亚目前在预选赛中只进了10个球。在客场，他们只进过四次球。事实上，在拉脱维亚的比赛中，+2.5个进球是一个非常有利可图的赌注。在发布这篇分析的时候，赔率在1.70左右是很普遍的。再一次，获胜的几率是65%。拉脱维亚在过去的19场比赛中，无论是在主场还是在中立场地，都没有输过2球以上的比赛。我希望拉脱维亚能在这里有组织地防守——也许有时是全部11人防守。他们可能会强烈依赖快速反击、角球、任意球或点球来得分。事实上，考虑到这一点——以及克罗地亚令人惊讶的蹩脚进攻——我认为这个数字比博彩公司的预测更低。总进球数少于2.5个的概率是48%。

在上一场比赛中，拉脱维亚在土耳其以0比4输掉了比赛，在博彩市场上，他们的胜率约为20英镑。土耳其绝对配得上三分，但最后的比分仍然很容易误导人。事实上，拉脱维亚有9次进球，而土耳其有19次。东道主的预期进球数“仅”为1.76，拉脱维亚的预期进球数为0.95。在此之前，拉脱维亚在主场以2比0击败亚美尼亚，根据博彩公司的说法，他们是大输家，胜率约为4.00。拉脱维亚的奥斯在第52分钟吃到第二张黄牌后被罚下，当时比分还是1-0。特别是在这之后，他们表现得非常出色，巴洛迪斯在第68分钟打进了2-0的进球。客队有60%的控球率，进球次数也更多。然而，拉脱维亚又射正了几次——6比2!他们也产生了更多的预期目标(xG) 1.87-1.17准确地说。另一方面，克罗地亚在最近的两场比赛中输了两场，他们在这两场比赛中只进了一个球。在上一场比赛中，他们以1比2输给了威尔士，在博彩市场上他们显然是夺冠热门。事实上，威尔士队在博彩市场上的胜率约为4.5英镑。这对他们来说是一场巨大的胜利，当然也打击了克罗地亚的信心——以及出线的机会。克罗地亚和预期的一样，拥有很高的控球率——66%。然而，威尔士的进球次数更多

(5比3)。准确地说，克罗地亚在1.11-1.02赛季的进球数只多了一点点。在此之前，克罗地亚在主场0-1输给了土耳其。他们有60%的控球率，进球次数(17-13次)、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数(148-88次)以及特别危险的进攻次数(73-36次)都要多得多。然而，不可否认的事实是，克罗地亚队远没有达到他们的正常水平。赌马人给他们的赌价是1.6美元左右。是的，他们可以提高，但博彩公司似乎把这个因素太强调了!我需要提到的是，从长远来看，有一种建议认为，在一个胜率为-1.5球的热门球队上下注——更不用说胜率更大的胜率了——从长远来看是一个可怕的主意!对我的球迷来说，这是一件好事，当他们在未来赌足球时，当然要小心。如果看到客队打进一两个球，然后为了节省精力和避免受伤而降低比赛的节奏，我一点也不会感到惊讶。他们很擅长控球，拉脱维亚不是一支经常给对手施加压力的球队。当然，拉脱维亚在进攻端也相当有限。幸运的是，我们不需要他们进球就能赢得比赛。我需要提一下，克罗地亚周二将对阵亚美尼亚。