Liechtenstein VS Portugal

Liechtenstein welcome Portugal for this UEFA EURO Qualification Group J round 9 battle at Rheinpark Stadion in Vaduz early Friday morning Beijing time. A total of 10 rounds will be played. Football enthusiasts and us serious football bettors – with a long-term profit in mind – can expect a rather one-sided match here. Indeed, Portugal are, of course, big favourites here. Liechtenstein cannot match Portugal in any area of the game – not even close. Portugal will most probably control the events at the stadium for most of the 90 minutes. Liechtenstein are expected to mainly rely on fast counter attacks, corner kicks, free kicks – or a possible penalty kick to score here. Their chance of scoring a goal is only 37%. However, my fans and I, of course, do not need for the hosts to score here to win with the recommended +4.5 goals handicap bet. The chance of winning is 58%. Odds of around 2.00 are widely available at the time of writing this preview early Wednesday morning Beijing time. However, do expect the odds on Liechtenstein to drop before the kick off as smart money is expected to pile up on the hosts. Some squad rotation by Portugal's coach would not be a surprise at all. They have many talented young players in the squad. These guys are surely eager to prove their skills. No, there are no bad or even mediocre players in the Portuguese squad but the level still drops as a result of (possible) rotation! Yes, Portugal could score 10 goals here if they were to fire on all cylinders. However, they are unlikely to do that. Getting a better score difference in the group does not help them in any way, They will surely want to win though! The new seeding format for the finals incentivises teams to continue to take their remaining qualifiers seriously, as the pots will be decided based on how many points are grabbed in qualifying. Portugal will be targeting a spot in pot one and can confirm that by taking all three points here. I would not be at all surprised to see the visitors scoring two or three goals and then aiming at lowering the tempo in order to save energy and avoid injuries. Portugal have taken the maximum number of points (24) in this group and have a strong goal difference of 32:2. Liechtenstein are in 6th place(last) and have failed to take any points. They have scored just one goal and have allowed 25 goals. However, they could have scored a few more goals. More importantly, their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is lower – 21.22 to be precise. Portugal have a whopping 93.50 % chance of winning here.

Let's not forget that the worst national teams in Europe, for example Liechtenstein, Andorra and San Marino, have raised their level in recent years! For example, San Marino levelled the game against Denmark in the second half in a qualification match. The Danes took a narrow 2-1 away win – priced around 1.01 to win on the betting market. They did not generate even 2.00 in expected goals.. Liechtenstein are a much better team than San Marino. Portugal, however, or a stronger team than Denmark though. At home the big teams usually want to entertain their fans by scoring as many goals as possible but away from home the situation is often different. There is in the long-term suggesting that betting on a heavy favourite with a -1.5 goals handicap – not to mention a bigger one handicap – is – in the long run - a terrible idea! The two teams last locked horns at Estádio José Alvalade in Lisbon in March. Portugal were, of course, dominant in this match but won "only" 4-0.. They generated 3.67 in xG – Liechtenstein managed 0.06. The visitors recorded two goal attempts – the hosts' number was 35. I want to highlight that Liechtenstein have not lost any of their last six games by a margin of more than four goals! Moreover, they have lost just once in their most recent 16 games by a margin of more than four goals. Portugal have won many matches in a row and have been better than I would have expected in this qualification. They were, after all, a light disappointment in the World Cup in Qatar last year. Indeed, they lost to Morocco as big favourites in the quarter-finals. They have scored more goals in terms of the number xG – and have conceded less goals than they should have in terms of (xGA). It is important to realize this when analysing this game. The xG and xGA numbers are probably the main reason why the odds on the +4.5 goals handicap on the hosts are so good.. In their last game they lost in Iceland, of course as gigantic underdogs, 0-4 but did not play poorly at all – by their standards, I mean. They managed four goal attempts, two shots on goal 54 attacks and dangerous attacks. Moreover, they generated 1.02 in xG. Iceland definitely deserved to win but generated only 2.02 in xG. Before this they fought well and lost "only" 0-2 at home to Bosnia&Herzegovina, a pretty dangerous team - priced around 20.00-24.00 to win on the betting market.

列支敦士登VS葡萄牙

北京时间周五凌晨，列支敦士登在瓦杜兹的莱茵公园体育场欢迎葡萄牙队参加欧洲杯预选赛J组第9轮比赛。比赛共进行10轮。足球爱好者和我们这些认真的足球投注者——考虑到长期利润——可以期待一场相当一边倒的比赛。事实上，葡萄牙当然是这里的大热门。列支敦士登在比赛的任何领域都无法与葡萄牙匹敌——甚至差得远。葡萄牙很可能在90分钟的大部分时间里控制着体育场的局势。预计列支敦士登将主要依靠快速反击、角球、任意球——或者可能的点球来得分。他们进球的几率只有37%。然而，我的球迷和我，当然，不需要东道主在这里得分来赢得推荐的+4.5个进球的赔率赌注。获胜的几率为58%。在北京时间周三凌晨撰写这篇预告时，2.00左右的赔率普遍存在。然而，列支敦士登的赔率在开球前会有所下降，因为预计聪明的钱会堆积在东道主身上。葡萄牙教练的一些阵容轮换并不会让人感到意外。他们队中有许多有天赋的年轻球员。这些家伙肯定渴望证明他们的技能。不，葡萄牙队中没有糟糕甚至平庸的球员，但由于轮换，水平仍然下降!是的，如果葡萄牙火力全开，他们可以在这里进10个球。然而，他们不太可能这么做。在小组中取得更大的分差对他们没有任何帮助，但他们肯定想赢!决赛的新种子赛制激励球队继续认真对待他们剩下的预选赛，因为分组将根据在预选赛中获得的积分来决定。葡萄牙的目标是进入第一名，他们可以在这里拿到全部三分。如果看到客队进了两到三个球，然后为了节省能量和避免受伤而降低节奏，我一点也不会感到惊讶。葡萄牙队在小组中获得最多积分(24分)，净胜球为32:2。列支敦士登排名第六(最后)，一分未得。他们只进了一个球，丢了25个球。然而，他们本可以多进几个球。更重要的是，他们的预期进球数(xGA)更低，准确地说是21.22。葡萄牙队在这里获胜的几率高达93.50%。

别忘了，那些欧洲最差的国家队，比如列支敦士登、安道尔和圣马力诺，近年来都提高了自己的水平!例如，在一场资格赛中，圣马力诺在下半场扳平了与丹麦的比赛。丹麦人在客场以2比1险胜，在博彩市场上的胜率约为1.01。他们连2个预期进球都没进。列支敦士登比圣马力诺强多了。不过，葡萄牙比丹麦更强。在主场，豪门球队通常希望通过尽可能多的进球来取悦球迷，但在客场，情况往往不同。从长远来看，押注一个胜率为-1.5个进球的热门球队——更不用说胜率更高的胜率了——从长远来看是一个糟糕的主意!这两支球队上一次在里斯本的Estádio jossore Alvalade交锋是在3月份。当然，葡萄牙在这场比赛中占据统治地位，但“只”以4比0获胜。他们在2009年获得了3.67分，列支敦士登获得了0.06分。客队有2次射门，而主队的数字是35次。我想强调的是，列支敦士登在过去的六场比赛中没有输过超过四球的比赛!此外，在最近的16场比赛中，他们只输了一场，落后4球以上。葡萄牙连续赢了很多场比赛，在这次预选赛中表现得比我预期的要好。毕竟，他们在去年的卡塔尔世界杯上有点令人失望。事实上，他们在四分之一决赛中输给了摩洛哥。他们进了更多的球，丢了更少的球。在分析这款游戏时，意识到这一点非常重要。xG和xGA的数据可能是东道主进球+4.5的赔率如此之高的主要原因。在上一场比赛中，他们输给了冰岛，当然，作为一个巨大的失败者，0-4，但我的意思是，以他们的标准来看，他们踢得一点也不差。他们有4次进球尝试，2次射门，54次进攻和危险的进攻。此外，他们在xG中产生了1.02。冰岛绝对应该赢，但是