Let's go for even more PROFIT with a lucrative "double" - 2 picks.

PICK 1

Bayer Leverkusen VS RB Leipzig

Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig lock horns in this German Bundesliga round 1 clash at BayArena late Saturday evening Beijing time. This is the third-best league in the world after the English Premier League and the Spanish LaLiga. We can expect a match of very high level here between these good teams! Last season Leipzig finished in 3rd place with a fine 66 points in their pocket. They will play in the UEFA Champions League this season and must be very confident and eager to start the season! Champions League games will surely affect their game in the autumn but not yet! Leipzig winning the championship would, of course, be a pretty big surprise but they have the players to fight and push the other top teams hard and should finish in the top-3. In terms of expected points (xPTS) they would have deserved more last season - 70.12 to be precise. This is, quite interestingly, less than two points less than Bayern Munich's number of xPTS..  Bayern – once again, lifted the trophy last season. Leipzig netted the ball 64 times in the Bundesliga and there is no denying that in this area of the game they were much worse than Dortmund, who finished in 2nd place and Bayern. Dortmund scored 83 goals and the champions netted the ball a whopping 92 times. However, Leipzig's number of expected goals (xG) was not bad -  70.03. We can expect Leipzig to improve in this area of the game under their good coach Marco Rose. Their defense, on the other hand, was excellent. It had a great structure and silly individual mistakes were few. The midfielders actively participate in defending – similarly to other top teams in the best leagues. They allowed just 41 goals, less than Dortmund, last season. In fact, their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) – 35.34 - was even smaller than that of Bayern's! They were on fire at the end of last season winning a stunning seven games in a row!

Leipzig did suffer two defeats in friendlies in July but also took three fine wins in friendly games earlier this month. They have now played five games without losing. Moreover, they shocked the football world by beating Bayern Munich 3-0 at Allianz Arena in the German Super Cup final! What a great performance and a massive boost to Leipzig's team spirit! Bayern had 65% ball possession but recorded just three more goal attempts than Leipzig – 13-10. Both teams had five shots on goal and Leipzig generated more in xG – 2.12-1.26! No, it was not the most important game of the season but it still seems that the bookies do not give this fine performance enough emphasis.. Indeed, the bookies see Leverkusen as favorites here – offering them odds of around 2.45 to take all three points. I strongly disagree and see Leipzig as favorites – not very clear of course though. We will go with the Leipzig +0.5 goals handicap option to win – once again! Leipzig have an edge over the hosts in all areas of the game here. In terms of defensive quality the difference is bigger than offensively. Bayern Leverkusen, on the other hand, had a disappointing last season. They finished in 6th place and did not qualify for the Play Offs in the Champions League despite playing in a pretty easy group.. In fact, they won just one of the six games in Group B. They then played in the UEFA Europa League but failed to really succeed - Jose Mourinho's Roma beat them 1-0 on aggregate. Leverkusen started last season extremely badly and were at the bottom half of the league table for quite a long time before improving. At the very end of last season they were back to poor form and failed to win any of their latest seven games!

In the final round of the Bundesliga 2022-2023 season Bochum, who finished in 14th place, crushed Leverkusen 3-0! This summer Leverkusen took two wins and lost twice in four friendly games. Even a small team, Paderborn, beat them 2-1.. In their most recent game they beat Teutonia Ottensen away from home 8-0 in a DFB Pokal game. I need to highlight that the opponent are a very small team and Leverkusen were priced around 1.02-1.04 to win during the 90 minutes of play. I do not give this match too much emphasis ahead of this game against a very strong opponent. Leverlusen took just 50 points last season and could easily have dropped to 8th place! Wolfsburg finished in this place with 49 points. However, their number of xPTS was 51.24. Yes, they can improve but there are not many really big arrivals for this season.. Right winger Moussa Diaby left Leverkusen for Aston Villa for over 50 million euros. This hurts Leverkusen a lot! Leipzig, on the other hand, have lost three big players Nkunku, Gvardiol and Szoboszlai but earned a lot of money selling them! The betting market seems to overreact to these players leaving the club.. However, they have many very interesting new players as well – Xavi Simmons, Lois Openda and Castello Lukeba to name a few! I expect a lot from these guys but it seems that the bookies underestimate them!

PICK 2:

Frosinone VS Napoli

Frosinone welcome Napoli at Stadio Benito Stirpe for this Italian Serie A opening round clash early Sunday morning Beijing time. This is the fourth-best league on the planet but we will most probably not witness a particularly entertaining game here.. The difference in pure class between the two teams is simply gigantic! The hosts cannot match Napoli in any area of the game – not even close! Even the odds of around 1.40 offered on Napoli to win on the betting market are too high! The fans wanting to go for bigger odds Napoli -1.5 goals handicap is a good option as well. Odds of around 2.05-2.10 are widely available and the chance of winning is 57%.  I want to highlight that Frosinone are a very small team by Serie A standards. They were promoted to this level from the Serie B for this season. They won this league by a clear margin but the level is massively lower than that of the Serie A! Frosione took 80 points and had a score difference of 63.26. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) was just 74.12. They lack quality for the Serie A level especially in the offense. Their defense is not expected to be able to resist the pressure from the likes of Lobotka, Zielinski; Politano, Osimhen and Kvaratskhelia. 

Napoli have lost just one key player, South Korean centre-back Kim Min-Jae. The team from southern Italy dominated the Serie A for the whole season and took a stunning 90 points. Lazio, 2nd place, grabbed 74 points! Napoli netted the ball 77 points and allowed just 27 goals in the Serie A – both were the lowest number in this league. Yes, their number of expected points was smaller but they were still clearly the best team in the Serie A. Frosinone do have the ”newly promoted team's boost” - usually at its strongest in the first home games and I have taken it into account, of course! This phenomenon/factor is well-known by all professional bettors. Lastly I want to mention that according to a well-respected Geran website, Transfermarkt.com, the Napoli squad is valued at close to a whopping 600 million euros! As for the hosts, the total estimated market value is only about 26 million - an extremely low number in the Serie A! In the Champions League Napoli lost to AC Milan in the Playoffs despite being the better and more active team on the pitch as a whole - generating more in xG. However, Milan defended well and also had some luck on their side.. Napoli also had some injury problems at the worst possible moment. This season Napoli will probably do well in this competition but for now they can focus purely on the Serie A and start it by beating Frosione! Napoli have not lost any of their latest eight games and have suffered just one defeat in their most recent 17 games. What a great record!

让我们用一个有利可图的“双”- 2个选择来获得更多的利润。

选择1

勒沃库森VS莱比锡

北京时间周六晚，勒沃库森和莱比锡将在拜仁球馆进行德甲第一轮的交锋。这是世界上第三好的联赛，仅次于英超和西甲。我们可以期待这两支强队之间的高水平比赛!上个赛季，莱比锡以66分的积分排名第三。他们本赛季将参加欧洲冠军联赛，他们一定非常自信，渴望新赛季的开始!欧冠比赛肯定会影响他们在秋季的比赛，但现在还不是时候!莱比锡赢得冠军，当然，是一个相当大的惊喜，但他们有球员战斗和推动其他顶级球队努力，应该在前三名结束。从期望积分(xPTS)的角度来看，他们理应得到更多——准确地说是70.12。很有趣的是，这比拜仁慕尼黑的得分少了不到2分。拜仁——再一次举起了上赛季的奖杯。莱比锡在德甲联赛中有64次进球，不可否认的是，在这方面他们比排名第二的多特蒙德和拜仁差得多。多特蒙德进了83球，冠军球队有92次进球。然而，莱比锡的预期进球数(xG)并不差，为70.03。我们可以期待莱比锡在他们优秀的教练马可·罗斯的带领下在这方面有所提高。另一方面，他们的防守非常出色。它有一个伟大的结构和愚蠢的个人错误很少。中场球员积极参与防守——与其他顶级联赛的顶级球队类似。上赛季他们只丢了41个球，比多特蒙德还少。事实上，他们的预期失球数(xGA)为35.34，甚至比拜仁还要少!他们在上赛季结束时火力全开，取得了惊人的七连胜!

莱比锡在7月份的友谊赛中遭遇了两场失利，但在本月早些时候的友谊赛中也取得了三场胜利。他们已经打了五场比赛没有输球。此外，他们在德国超级杯决赛中在安联球场以3-0击败拜仁慕尼黑，震惊了足球界!多么伟大的表现，极大地鼓舞了莱比锡的团队精神!拜仁的控球率为65%，但进球次数仅比莱比锡多3次(13胜10负)。两支球队都有5次射门，莱比锡队在xG - 2.12-1.26的比赛中创造了更多的射门机会!不，这不是本赛季最重要的一场比赛，但博彩公司似乎仍然没有给予这场出色的表现足够的重视。事实上，博彩公司认为勒沃库森在这里是最受欢迎的——他们提供了2.45左右的赔率来获得全部三分。我强烈反对，认为莱比锡是最受欢迎的球队——当然不是很清楚。我们将选择莱比锡+0.5个进球障碍来赢得比赛——再一次!莱比锡在比赛的各个方面都比东道主有优势。在防守质量方面的差异大于进攻质量。另一方面，拜仁勒沃库森上赛季的表现令人失望。他们以第6名结束了比赛，尽管在一个相当轻松的小组，但他们没有资格参加欧冠附加赛。事实上，他们在b组的六场比赛中只赢了一场，随后他们参加了欧联杯，但没有取得真正的成功——穆里尼奥的罗马以总比分1-0击败了他们。勒沃库森上个赛季的开局非常糟糕，在很长一段时间里都处于积分榜的后半部分。上赛季末，他们又回到了糟糕的状态，最近7场比赛一场都没赢!

在德甲2022-2023赛季的最后一轮比赛中，排名第14位的波鸿以3-0击败勒沃库森!今年夏天，勒沃库森在四场友谊赛中取得了两胜两负。即使是一支小球队，帕德伯恩，也以2比1击败了他们。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在客场8-0击败了条顿尼亚·奥滕森。我需要强调的是，对手是一支非常小的球队，勒沃库森在90分钟的比赛中获胜的价格在1.02-1.04左右。在面对一个非常强大的对手之前，我不会给这场比赛太多的强调。勒沃卢森上赛季只拿了50分，很可能跌到第8位!沃尔夫斯堡以49分排名第一。然而，他们的xPTS数为51.24。是的，他们可以提高，但是这个赛季没有很多真正的大牌球员。右边锋迪亚比以超过5000万欧元的价格离开勒沃库森加盟阿斯顿维拉。这对勒沃库森伤害很大!另一方面，莱比锡失去了三名重要球员恩昆库、格瓦迪奥尔和绍

选择2:

弗罗西诺内VS那不勒斯

北京时间周日凌晨，弗罗西诺内将在贝尼托斯特普球场迎接那不勒斯的到来。这是世界上第四好的联赛，但我们很可能不会在这里看到一场特别有趣的比赛。两支球队在纯粹的等级上的差异简直是巨大的!东道主在比赛的任何方面都无法与那不勒斯匹敌——甚至差得远!在博彩市场上，那不勒斯获胜的赔率约为1.40，这也太高了!球迷们想要更大的赔率，那不勒斯-1.5个进球障碍也是一个不错的选择。赔率在2.05-2.10之间，获胜几率为57%。我想强调的是，按照意甲的标准，弗罗西诺内是一支非常小的球队。他们本赛季是从乙级联赛升到这个级别的。他们以明显优势赢得了这个联赛，但水平比意甲低得多!弗罗西奥内得到80分，成绩差63.26分。但是，他们的期望值(xPTS)只有74.12。他们缺乏意甲水平的实力，尤其是在进攻端。他们的防守预计无法抵挡来自洛博特卡、齐林斯基等人的压力;波利塔诺，奥西姆恩和克瓦拉茨基利亚。

那不勒斯只失去了一名关键球员，韩国中卫金敏宰。这支来自意大利南部的球队统治了整个赛季的意甲联赛，并取得了惊人的90分。拉齐奥，第二名，拿到74分!那不勒斯在意甲联赛中得到77分，只丢了27个球，这两个数字都是联赛中最低的。是的，他们的预期积分要少一些，但他们显然仍然是意甲最好的球队。弗罗西诺内确实有“新进球队的动力”——通常在第一场主场比赛中是最强的，当然我也考虑到了这一点!这种现象/因素是所有职业投注者所熟知的。最后我想说的是，根据著名的德国网站Transfermarkt.com，那不勒斯队的价值接近6亿欧元!至于东道主，总市值估计只有2600万，这在意甲是极低的数字!在欧冠联赛中，那不勒斯在季后赛中输给了AC米兰，尽管他们在球场上表现得更好、更活跃——在xG上创造了更多的机会。然而，米兰防守很好，他们这边也有一些运气。那不勒斯在最糟糕的时刻也有一些伤病问题。本赛季那不勒斯可能会在这项赛事中表现出色，但现在他们可以完全专注于意甲，并以击败弗罗西奥内为开始!那不勒斯在最近的8场比赛中没有输过一场，在最近的17场比赛中只输了一场。多么伟大的记录啊!