SAUDI ARABIA - MEXICO

Pick based on the poor Mexican performances.

Saudi Arabia made good performances in this World Cup, showing that they have a great coach, a solid block and are well prepared for this tournament. We must remember that they have had longer to prepare than most teams.

In the first game they deservedly beat Argentina playing with great tactics, while in the second one they managed to outplay Poland and were very close to achieve a positive result (missed a penalty from 1:0 down), but weren’t able to do it although made the double of shots and 64% possession. Lewandowski was the MVP but personally I think that Polish goalkeeper Szczesny deserved it, as made great saves.

But Mexico is the main reason for this pick. They have been the most disappointing team in the tournament (maybe along with Uruguay) for me. It’s true that they aren’t a top team (in the qualifiers ended below Canada and weren’t able to beat them, with a draw and defeat) but I expected more from them.

They have shown very poor tactics, no capacity to change the match or react, and no B plan. They were totally outplayed by Argentina and Poland, just were lucky with the goalless draw against Poland as Memo Ochoa stopped a penalty, avoiding a fair defeat.

I’m especially focused on their attack, they showed zero danger and zero ability to create danger or score goals. And this weakness against a solid side like Saudi Arabia, very strong defensively, don't know who they are going to score 2 goals to lose our bet.

I’m expecting a very tight match, where Saudi Arabia will have more alternatives and better tactics to equalize the higher quality on the Mexican side (which isn’t huge either) whose performances so far have been disappointing, in opposition to Saudi Arabia.

POLAND - ARGENTINA

Argentina should win here to qualify as first.

Poland’s performances have been so poor. Their first game against Mexico was terrible, while the second one wasn’t much better but they were a bit more lucky, stopping a penalty and with Saudi Arabia missing some chances.

Apart from Lewandowski, they have a weak team. Always feels like there is an over-reliance on Barcelona's striker to deliver the goods, so if Argentina’s defenders manage to stop them, half part of the job should be done. The plan of the team remains the same - give it to Lewandowski and hope.

They qualified pretty lucky, ending just two points above Albania in the qualifiers and three above Hungary. In the playoffs game against Sweden (2:0) they were lucky and outplayed, with an undeserved victory.

But Argentina is the opposite. Although they were beaten by Saudi Arabia in the first game, they managed to show in the second one against Mexico their real level. In this game we saw for the first time in this tournament the level that Argentina has: a very solid team, strong in the midfield and with many alternatives upfront.

Several players are coming from the bench and giving a lot of solutions to possible problems in the field: Mac Allister, Enzo Fernandez, Julian Alvarez… While with Messi on the pitch they will always have the chance to score a goal from nowhere.

Must remember that Argentina was one of the most in-form teams coming to this tournament (35 games unbeaten), and as I saw in the game against Mexico, the performance against Saudi Arabia was just an accident (maybe due to over confidence).

It’s a team with a lot of alternatives and systems, and should be able to beat this weak Polish team just stopping Lewandowski. Argentina has very experienced and good central backs (Lisandro - Otamendi) who surely knows how to deal with the striker.

According to what I saw from both teams before the World Cup (qualifiers + other tournaments such as Nations League/Copa America), in the two rounds played so far, and the quality on both sides, Argentina is clearly the favorite here.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

沙特阿拉伯-墨西哥

根据墨西哥人糟糕的表现来挑选。

沙特阿拉伯在本届世界杯上的出色表现，表明他们有一个伟大的教练，一个坚实的球队，为本届世界杯做好了充分的准备。我们必须记住，他们的准备时间比大多数球队都要长。

在第一场比赛中，他们凭借出色的战术击败了阿根廷，而在第二场比赛中，他们成功地击败了波兰，并非常接近取得积极的结果(在1:0落后时罚丢点球)，但没有做到，尽管有两次射门和64%的控球率。莱万多夫斯基是最有价值球员，但我个人认为波兰门将什切斯尼当之无愧，他做出了伟大的扑救。

但墨西哥是这个选择的主要原因。对我来说，他们是本届杯赛中最令人失望的球队(也许还有乌拉圭)。的确，他们不是一支顶级球队(在预选赛中，他们落后于加拿大，并未能击败他们，一平一负)，但我对他们的期望更高。

他们表现出非常糟糕的战术，没有能力改变比赛或做出反应，也没有B计划。他们完全被阿根廷和波兰打败了，只是幸运地与波兰0 - 0战平，奥乔亚扑出了点球，避免了一场公平的失败。

我特别关注他们的进攻，他们表现出零危险和零制造危险或进球的能力。在面对沙特这样防守非常强大的球队时，我们的弱点就在于，不知道他们会进两球，输掉我们的赌注。

我预计这将是一场势均力敌的比赛，沙特阿拉伯将有更多的选择和更好的战术来扳平墨西哥方面的高水平(墨西哥也不强大)，墨西哥方面迄今为止的表现令人失望，与沙特相反。

波兰-阿根廷

阿根廷队应该在这里取胜，以第一名出线。

波兰的表现实在太差了。他们与墨西哥的第一场比赛很糟糕，第二场也好不到哪里去，但他们稍微幸运一些，阻止了一个点球，而沙特错失了一些机会。

除了莱万多夫斯基，他们的队伍很弱。总觉得人们过于依赖巴萨的前锋来完成任务，所以如果阿根廷的后卫成功地阻止了他们，那就完成了一半的工作。球队的计划仍然是一样的——把它交给莱万多夫斯基和希望。

他们出线相当幸运，在预选赛中仅比阿尔巴尼亚高出2分，比匈牙利高出3分。在季后赛对阵瑞典队(2:0)的比赛中，他们很幸运，打得比他们好，获得了一场不应得的胜利。

但阿根廷恰恰相反。虽然他们在第一场比赛中被沙特阿拉伯击败，但在第二场对阵墨西哥的比赛中，他们成功地展示了他们真正的水平。在这场比赛中，我们在本届杯赛中第一次看到了阿根廷队的实力:一支非常稳固的球队，中场强大，前场有很多选择。

有几名球员从替补席上出现，为场上可能出现的问题提供了很多解决方案:麦克·阿利斯特、恩佐·费尔南德斯、朱利安·阿尔瓦雷斯……而梅西在球场上，他们总是有机会从任何地方打进一球。

必须记住，阿根廷是本届比赛中状态最好的球队之一(35场不败)，正如我在对阵墨西哥的比赛中看到的，对阵沙特阿拉伯的表现只是一个意外(可能是由于过度自信)。

这是一支有很多选择和体系的球队，只要阻止莱万多夫斯基，他们就应该能够击败这支虚弱的波兰队。阿根廷拥有非常有经验和优秀的中卫(利桑德罗-奥塔门迪)，他们当然知道如何对付前锋。

根据我在世界杯前对两支球队的观察(预选赛+其他赛事，如国家联赛/美洲杯)，在迄今为止的两轮比赛中，以及双方的实力，阿根廷队显然是最有希望的。