Almeria asian handicap -0.75 or straight win are my bets here.

Almeria was one of the main title contenders. They have been the whole season in the top positions, playing great football and with nice results. But lately they are on a bad run, with only 1 victory in the last 5 games and 3rd position (winning today will be 2nd as they are just 2 points below Valladolid).

The truth is that their last defeats or draws were very unlucky: against Huesca (1:1) they had to play the whole second half with 10 players due to red card; against Girona (lost 0:1) they missed two penalties; against Zaragoza (lost 2:0) missed another penalty + had goal disallowed by VAR with 0:0…

Next weekend they will play vs Valladolid, so the victory here is mandatory if they want to reach the top 2 positions (direct promotion) with only 8 games more remaining to play. They have had problems in defense in the last few months due to several injuries, but today coach Rubi has back three important players from suspension: Ramazani, Sousa and Puigmal.

On the other hand, Ponferradina is in a bad run too. For the first time in the whole season, they are out of the playoff zone. But it wasn’t a real target for them, they have been overperforming a lot this season. They are winless in the last 6 games, with 2 defeats in a row so the confidence is low.

It’s a very solid and difficult team to beat and today coach has problems with some players: two of the three defenders who have been starters the whole season are out (Pascanu, Copete) due to injury and suspension, while striker Sergi Enrich is out too.

This is an important match for both teams but I see Almeria in better form, playing at home and with a much better squad to achieve the victory.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

阿尔梅里亚是主要的冠军争夺者之一。他们整个赛季都在榜首，踢得很棒，取得了不错的成绩。但最近他们的表现很糟糕，在过去的5场比赛中只有1场胜利，排名第三(今天的胜利将排在第二，因为他们只比瓦利亚多利德差2分)。

事实是，他们最近的失败或平局是非常不幸的:在对阵韦斯卡(1:1)时，他们不得不在下半场用10名球员打红牌;对阵赫罗纳(0:1失利)，他们错失了两个点球;对阵萨拉戈萨(2:0输)又一次错失点球+ 0:0时被VAR取消进球…

下周末他们将对阵瓦拉多利德，所以如果他们想进入前两名(直接晋级)，在只剩下8场比赛的情况下，在这里的胜利是必胜的。在过去的几个月里，由于伤病，他们的防守出现了问题，但是今天，鲁比从禁赛中找回了三名重要的球员:拉马扎尼，苏萨和普伊格尔。

另一方面，庞费拉迪娜也陷入了困境。在整个赛季中，他们第一次被排除在季后赛之外。但这并不是他们真正的目标，他们本赛季已经表现得很好了。他们在过去的6场比赛中都没有赢，连输2场，所以信心很低。

这是一支非常坚固和难以击败的球队，今天教练遇到了一些球员的问题:三名后卫中的两名是整个赛季的首发球员，由于受伤和禁赛而缺席(帕斯卡努，Copete)，而前锋塞尔吉·里奇也缺席了。

这对两支球队来说都是一场重要的比赛，但我认为阿尔梅里亚的状态会更好，在主场比赛，用更好的阵容取得胜利。