Real Madrid have had a strange season. They do not show up at all in the matches against these smaller teams, but then when needed they have put up superb performances in the Classico, in the derby, and in the Champion’s league when it mattered.

No one denies their class, or Zidane, or their attitude.. or does someone?

Several of the losses so far can be directly linked to Sergio Ramos injury as for a gigantic team Real Madrid are surprisingly Ramosdependant, but he has been back now which shows in the results and in the performances.

Real last 7 games with xG.

In the latest matches another familiar names have stepped up in class. Toni Kroos, Luka Modric and Casemiro have been almost faultless in the midfield. Tonight Casemiro is out, he will be replaced by Valverde who is back from injury. The other absentees or doubts would not make the starting lineup apart from Hazard, but as he is always out his impact is minimal.

Real will control the ball and the game, Bilbao will try to keep the clean sheet as possible as they have very little to offer in the attack especially in their away games. They are one of the worst away teams also this season, they have 5 points from their 7 away games, and if we look at the opponents in those games the stats look even more worrying! The win has come in the early season vs Eibar who were at the time very much out of form. In addition to that derby then they have travelled to Granada, Alaves, Valladolid, Osasuna, Getafe and Valencia.. with 2 points to show! Not the most frightening list of clubs is it?

Real are more tired physically, but winning all those important matches pretty much helps to fight the fatigue. Now as the CL group phase is over they can concentrate in La Liga, and I am not expecting any rotation here, perhaps next weekend when Diaz, Ödegaard and Hazard are more likely to feature.

Bilbao were the better team v Valencia, but yet they conceded worth of over 2 xG there which would be badly punished in Madrid. In the attack they looked better than they are, as Valencia gave the ball away constantly, but the fact remains that their attackers like Villalibre or Williams are far from top class.

Bilbao last 7 games and xG, but it has to be noted that they are totally different animal at home and away

I am expecting a 3-0 or so here, but for the record only a straight home win this time.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

皇家马德里度过了一个奇怪的赛季。他们在对阵这些小球队的比赛中根本没有表现出来，但是当需要的时候，他们在联赛、德比和冠军联赛中都有出色的表现。

没有人会否认他们的级别、齐达内或者他们的态度。还是人吗?

到目前为止的几场失利都与塞尔吉奥·拉莫斯的伤病直接相关，对于一支庞大的球队来说，皇马对拉莫斯的依赖令人惊讶，但他现在已经回来了，这从结果和表现上就可以看出来。

皇马最后7场比赛的预期进球数如图一所示。

托尼·克劳斯、卢卡·莫德里奇和卡塞米罗在中场几乎完美无缺。今晚卡塞米罗缺席了比赛，他的位置将由从伤病中恢复的巴尔韦德代替。哈扎德不会进入首发阵容，但由于他总是缺阵，他的影响很小。

皇马将控制球权和比赛，毕尔巴鄂将尽可能保持不失球，因为他们在进攻中几乎没有机会，尤其是在客场比赛中。他们也是本赛季最差的客场球队之一，他们在7场客场比赛中得了5分，如果我们看看那些比赛中的对手，数据看起来更令人担忧!这场胜利是在赛季初对阵艾巴尔时取得的，当时艾巴尔状态不佳。除了那场德比，他们还去了格拉纳达、阿拉维斯、瓦拉多利德、奥萨苏纳、赫塔菲和瓦伦西亚。

皇马在身体上更加疲惫，但是赢得所有这些重要的比赛有助于对抗疲劳。现在冠军杯小组赛阶段已经结束，他们可以集中精力在西甲了，我不期望在这里有任何轮换，也许下周末迪亚兹，奥德加德和哈扎德更有可能出场。

毕尔巴鄂在对阵瓦伦西亚的比赛中表现较好，但他们在那里丢了两倍的预期进球数，这将在马德里受到严重的惩罚。在进攻中，他们看起来比实际情况要好，因为瓦伦西亚经常把球丢给对手，但事实是，他们的攻击手像比利亚布雷和威廉姆斯离顶级水平还很远。

毕尔巴鄂过去7场比赛的预期进球数如图2所示，但必须指出的是，他们在主场和客场是完全不同的动物

预测比分3:0。