Derry City VS Shamrock Rovers

Derry City and Shamrock Rovers lock horns in this Premier Division round11 battle at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium early Saturday morning Beijing time. This is the first tier of Irish football. However, the level of this league is very low by European standards.. Even for example the Finnish Veikkausliiga is of better quality. However, here we can expect a match of clearly better than average quality by this league's standards, I mean. The bookmakers make a lot of mistakes with their odds in this league – they put much more resources in the big leagues, like the English Premier League. Derry City currently occupy the 2nd place in the standings with a fine 16 points to their account. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) is "only" 12.76. They have netted the ball a strong 16 times but their number of expected goals (xG) is lower – 13.04 to be precise. They have been more creative offensively than I would have expected before the season started but I want to highlight that many of their offensive players have performed above their normal level so far. Their defence has not really convinced me – they have allowed 10 goals and their defensive structure has not been too impressive. Shamrock, on the other hand, are the reigning champions of Ireland and are also the bigger club here in terms of players' estimated total market value. They took the championship by a margin of seven points – before Derry City – last season. Not that much has really changed after last season in terms of both teams' pure class. I would also like to mention that Derry have not been able to defeat Shamrock in the last four games between the two teams. The teams last locked horns in round 4 and it was a 2-2 draw. Shamrock had a 63% ball possession and were the better team on the pitch as a whole.

Shamrock currently occupy the 4th place in the standings with 15 points in their pocket. However, their number of xPTS is 17.77. They have the potential to improve in all areas of the game. Their score difference is good - 14:9. Their number of xG is 16.44 and number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 8.65. They have been in fine form recently, winning four of their last five matches. The bookies, however, see the hosts as favourites here – offering them odds of around 2.40 to send the visitors home empty-handed. This is, based on my sophisticated analysis, incorrect. The home advantage here is not substantial and with the expected lineups the visitors have an edge over Derry in all areas of the game. The professional bettor's choice is Shamrock +0.5 goals handicap here. I want to highlight that the visitors have lost only two of their last 23 matches! In their last game they crushed Sligo Rovers 3-0 at home - recording a whopping 19 goal attempts. Before this they were very unlucky to lose to St. Patricks 1-2 on the road. Indeed, they had 70% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (20-9), shots on goal, shots off goal, corner kicks, attacks and dangerous attacks. They also generated much more in xG. The hosts , on the other hand, have won only one of their last five games. In their last game they played a disappointing 2-2 draw on the road against Drogheda. Derry were priced around 1.65 to win by the bookies but the hosts even recorded more attacks - Derry had 62% ball possession though. Both teams had three shots on target.

德里城VS三叶草流浪者

北京时间周六凌晨，德里城和三叶草流浪者将在布莱恩·麦克布莱德·布兰迪维尔球场进行英超第11轮的比赛。这是爱尔兰足球的第一梯队。然而，按照欧洲的标准，这个联赛的水平很低。即使是芬兰的Veikkausliiga，质量也更好。然而，我的意思是，按照这个联盟的标准，我们可以期待一场明显高于平均水平的比赛。博彩公司在这个联赛的赔率上犯了很多错误——他们把更多的资源放在了像英超这样的大联赛上。德里城目前以16分的积分排在积分榜的第二位。然而，它们的期望点数(xPTS)“只有”12.76。他们有16次强有力的进球，但是他们的预期进球数(xG)更低，准确地说是13.04个。他们的进攻比我在赛季开始前预期的更有创造力，但我想强调的是，到目前为止，他们的许多进攻球员的表现都超出了正常水平。他们的防守并没有让我信服——他们丢了10个球，他们的防守结构也不是很好。另一方面，三叶草是爱尔兰的卫冕冠军，就球员的估计总市场价值而言，它也是这里更大的俱乐部。上赛季他们在德里城之前以7分的优势夺得冠军。从两支球队的实力来看，和上赛季相比并没有太大的变化。我还想提一下，德里在两队之间的最后四场比赛中都没能击败三叶草。两队上一次交锋是在第4轮，双方以2比2战平。三叶草有63%的控球率，整体上是球场上更好的球队。

三叶草目前在积分榜上以15分排名第四。但是，他们的xPTS数量为17.77。他们在比赛的各个方面都有提高的潜力。他们的比分相差很大——14:9。他们的xG数为16.44，期望进球数(xGA)为8.65。他们最近状态很好，最近五场比赛赢了四场。然而，博彩公司认为东道主在这里是最受欢迎的——他们开出了2.40的赔率，让客队空手而归。根据我复杂的分析，这是不正确的。主场优势并不明显，在预期的阵容下，客队在比赛的各个方面都比德里有优势。职业投注者的选择是三叶草+0.5目标障碍在这里。我想强调的是客队在过去的23场比赛中只输了两场!在上一场比赛中，他们在主场以3比0大胜斯莱戈流浪者队，并打出了惊人的19次进球记录。在此之前，他们非常不幸地在客场1-2输给了圣帕特里克队。事实上，他们有70%的控球率，并且记录了更多的射门次数(20-9次)、射正、射离、角球、进攻和危险进攻。他们在xG中也产生了更多。另一方面，东道主在最近五场比赛中只赢了一场。在上一场比赛中，他们在客场2比2战平德罗海达，令人失望。博彩公司对德里的胜率估计在1.65左右，但东道主的进攻次数甚至更多——尽管德里的控球率为62%。两队都有三次射正。