Qarabag VS Sporting Braga

Qarabag and Braga lock horns in this UEFA Europa League Playoffs 1/16-finals second leg battle at Tofiq Bahramov Stadium in Baku very early Friday morning Beijing time. This is not their actual home stadium. This lovers the home advantage slightly. Football enthusiasts and us serious, profit-hungry football bettors can expect a match of rather mediocre level by this league's standards here! Most importantly we have yet another very lucrative match to bet on here! My fans and I have won an amazing10 picks in a row betting on this league! There is, of course, no doubt about the fact that Btaga are the better team here, in terms of players' individual skill in particular. They also have a much better coach and I see them as a better, more mature team tactically. I watched Qarabag live at Bolt Arena last summer when they faced the team from my home city, HJK Helsinki. I have followed Qarabag very closely ever since and have detected that they are very often overvalued by the bookmakers. In the second leg HJK took the lead and were in control before HJK's defender took a silly red card. In the first leg in Azerbaijan Qarabag beat HJK 2-1 but looked vulnerable at times and did not really impress me.. HJK are a much better team than HJK in terms of players' estimated total value. According to a German website Transfermarkt.com the HJK squad is valued at about six million euros.. Braga, one of the four big teams in Portugal, are the much bigger team here with an estimated squad value of some 115 million! This is, in my expert opinion, still clearly low. I would say that around 145 would be a fair number. The Qarabag players are valued at approximately 15 million. This is a very low level by the Europa League (Playoffs) standards. This is undoubtedly too low though – at least three players are undervalued. In my expert opinion around 21-22 million would be a more realistic number. Even so, the difference between them and Braga is massive!

Braga were the better team in the first leg last week. I will not let the surprising and extremely misleading final score – 2-4 – to fool me! However, I do realize that Braga were disappointing and Qarabag surprisingly strong. One of the key things in professional football betting is not to react too heavily to one or two games.. We must keep in mind that Braga played clearly below their normal level – with Qarabag it was the opposite! The bookies have reacted way too strongly to the first leg result! Indeed, odds of around 2.40 on Braga to win are widely available. With the expected lineups I see them having a 47% chance to win. In the first leg Braga had 53% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (16-11), shots on goal, shots off target, corner kicks (7-2), total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. They also generated more in expected goals. Qarabag, of course, will qualify even if they were to lose by a margin of one goal. This definitely increases Braga's chances of winning - and decreases the probability of a draw. I expect them to be defensive - even passive here - unless Braga score two quick goals. If the score is level Braga will have to be extremely aggressive but I believe they have a good chance of handling the situation.. Qarabag are, after all, not a particularly dangerous team on counter attacks. If Braga were to lead by a margin of one goal late into the second half even the goalkeeper might move close to the hosts' goal in a corner – or free kick situation.. This is very risky but we have to accept it and the generous odds are worth a try!

Braga currently occupy the 4th place in Liga Portugal, just five points behind Porto – a team that lock horns with Arsenal in the Champions League Playoffs at the time of posting this in-depth preview! Braga have 43 points to their account in Liga Portugal - a league that is massively better than the Azerbaijani Premier League! Qarabag top the standings with 51 points but their number of expected points (xPTS) is "only" 46.77. Before beating Braga they were disappointing against Sabah Baku (7th place) at home as big favourites in the betting market. It was a 3-3 draw in the end Qarabag looked rather disorganized in defence – once again. Braga easily beat SC Farense in their last game. They dominated the game despite winning only 2-1. Braga recorded massively more goal attempts, shots on goal, corner kicks, attacks and dangerous attacks. Moreover, they generated 3.43 in xG – Farense managed only 0.42! This win was surely a big boost to their confidence!

卡拉巴格VS布拉加竞技

北京时间周五凌晨，卡拉巴格和布拉加在巴库的托菲克巴拉莫夫体育场展开了欧联杯季后赛1/16决赛次回合的激战。这不是他们真正的主场。这使主场优势略为减弱。足球爱好者和我们这些认真的、追求利润的足球投注者可以期待一场以这个联赛的标准来看相当平庸的比赛!最重要的是，我们又有一场非常有利可图的比赛可以下注了!我和我的球迷在这个联赛中连续赢得了10个选秀权!当然，就球员的个人技术而言，毫无疑问，Btaga在这里是一支更好的球队。他们也有一个更好的教练，我认为他们是一支战术上更好、更成熟的球队。去年夏天，我在博尔特竞技场观看了卡拉巴队对阵我家乡赫尔辛基HJK队的现场直播。从那以后，我一直密切关注卡拉巴，并发现他们经常被博彩公司高估。在第二回合的比赛中，在jk的后卫领到一张愚蠢的红牌之前，hkk取得了领先并控制了比赛。在与阿塞拜疆的首回合比赛中，卡拉巴格2-1击败了jk，但有时看起来很脆弱，并没有给我留下深刻的印象。就球员的估计总价值而言，HJK比HJK强得多。据德国网站Transfermarkt.com报道，这支球队的身价约为600万欧元。葡萄牙四大豪门之一的布拉加在这里的规模要大得多，估计球队价值约为1.15亿欧元!以我的专家观点来看，这仍然很低。我想说，大约145个是一个合理的数字。卡拉巴格球员的身价约为1500万美元。以欧联杯(季后赛)的标准来看，这是一个非常低的水平。不过，这个数字无疑太低了——至少有三名球员的估值被低估了。在我的专家看来，2100万到2200万左右是一个更现实的数字。即便如此，他们和布拉加之间的差距还是很大的!

布拉加在上周的首回合比赛中表现更好。我不会让那令人惊讶又极具误导性的最终比分——2-4——来愚弄我!然而，我确实意识到布拉加的表现令人失望，而卡拉巴格出人意料地强大。职业足球投注的关键之一是不要对一两场比赛反应过于强烈。我们必须记住，布拉加的表现明显低于他们的正常水平，而卡拉巴格的表现恰恰相反!博彩公司对第一回合的结果反应太激烈了!事实上，布拉加获胜的赔率约为2.40。根据预期的阵容，我认为他们有47%的机会获胜。在首回合比赛中，布拉加拥有53%的控球率，并且记录了更多的进球次数(16-11次)、射正、射偏、角球(7-2次)、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数。他们也产生了更多的预期目标。当然，即使卡拉巴以一球之差输掉比赛，他们也将出线。这无疑增加了布拉加获胜的机会，并降低了平局的可能性。我希望他们是防守的，甚至是被动的，除非布拉加快速进了两个球。如果比分持平，布拉加将会非常有侵略性，但我相信他们有很好的机会处理这种情况。毕竟，卡拉巴格在反击方面并不是一支特别危险的球队。如果布拉加在下半场后半段领先一球，即使守门员也可能在角球或任意球的情况下靠近主队的球门。这是非常冒险的，但我们必须接受它，而且几率很大，值得一试!

布拉加目前在葡萄牙联赛中排名第四，仅落后波尔图5分——在发布这篇深度预览时，波尔图正在欧冠季后赛中与阿森纳交手!布拉加在葡萄牙联赛中有43分，这是一个比阿塞拜疆超级联赛好得多的联赛!卡拉巴格队以51分排名第一，但他们的预期积分(xPTS)“只有”46.77分。在击败布拉加之前，他们在主场对阵巴库沙巴(第七名)的比赛中表现令人失望。比赛最后以3比3战平，卡拉巴格的防守看起来相当混乱——再一次。布拉加在上一场比赛中轻松击败了法国。尽管他们只赢了2-1，但他们控制了比赛。布拉加的进球次数、射门次数、角球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数都要多得多。此外，他们在xG中生成了3.43个，而法语只生成了0.42个!这场胜利无疑极大地增强了他们的信心!