Paris Saint Germain (PSG) VS Real Sociedad

PSG and Real Sociedad lock horns in this UEFA Champions League Playoffs first leg clash at Parc des Princes early Thursday morning Beijing time. This is the best of UEFA's club competitions. I do expect this match to be of relatively high standards by thiis league's standards despite the fact that none of the teams are among the hottest favourites to lift the trophy in June. There is, of course, no doubt about the fact that PSG are the better team in terms of pure class here. On paper they look even quite a lot better than the visitors. However, they have been underperforming in important Champions League games for many, despite making the final in 2020 where they lost to Bayern Munich. Even with Messi and Neymar who are now gone they could not play well enough when the stakes were the biggest. Their football is simply not balanced enough despite having a lot of talent and skill in the squad. They were, in fact, not far from failing to make it to the Playoffs as they secured their place in the last round of group stage. They took only eight points – the same number as Milan who finished in third place. They do top the Ligue 1 standings with 50 points to their account but have not been dominant by any means. Indeed, their number of expected points (xPTS) is only 41.97. A few more than Lille's (currently in 5th place in the standings) number of xPTS. They do however, have much more firepower than the visitors and deserve to be the favourites here with a 50% chance of winning. The bookies offer them odds of only around 1.70 to win, so we will take Real Sociedad +0.5 goals handicap here. 

In their last game the hosts beat Lille 3-1 at home and deserved to win but the expected goals (xG) number were more close than the final score reflects – 2.44-1.66. Before this they defeated Brest 3-1, also at home, xG numbers were 1.02-0.79.Real Sociedad are playing a pretty good season in the Spanish LaLiga which is significantly better in terms of quality than the Ligue 1. They are in 7th place with 37 points in their pocket. They have not been either lucky or unlucky in terms of xPTS. Their offense has a good structure but lacks individual skill to compete for a top-3 place in LaLiga. Their defence on the other hand is very solid and silly individual mistakes are few. They will surely defend in an organized way here and would probably be happy with a draw. They have allowed only 22 goals – this the third-lowest number in the second-best league in the world! Barcelona have allowed 33 goals and A. Madrid 26. The visitors have lost only two of their last 20 games and have an excellent coach and team spirit. They won Group D with 12 points. Inter – last season's finalists, Benfica and Salzburg were the other three teams. It is true that they have not been quite at their best recently but can improve offensively. They played three 0-0 draws in their last four games! In their last match they lost to Osasuna 0-1 but recorded more goal attempts (21-9), shots on goal, shots off goal (8-0) attacks as well as dangerous attacks! They also generated much more in xG – 1.66-0.45

巴黎圣日耳曼VS皇家社会

北京时间周四凌晨，巴黎圣日耳曼和皇家社会将在王子公园球场进行欧冠季后赛首回合的交锋。这是欧足联最好的俱乐部比赛。我确实希望这场比赛能以联赛的标准来衡量，尽管事实上没有一支球队是六月份夺冠的热门球队。当然，毫无疑问，巴黎圣日耳曼是一支实力更强的球队。从纸面上看，他们甚至比来访者好看得多。然而，他们在许多重要的欧冠比赛中表现不佳，尽管他们在2020年进入决赛，输给了拜仁慕尼黑。即使梅西和内马尔现在已经离开，当赌注最大的时候，他们也不能踢得足够好。他们的足球就是不够平衡，尽管球队中有很多天赋和技术。事实上，他们离进入季后赛不远了，因为他们在最后一轮小组赛中保住了席位。他们只拿到了8分，和排名第三的米兰一样。他们在法甲积分榜上以50分排名第一，但无论如何都没有占据统治地位。事实上，他们的期望值(xPTS)只有41.97。比里尔(目前排名第五)的xPTS数量多一些。然而，他们确实比客队火力更强，应该以50%的获胜机会成为最受欢迎的球队。博彩公司给他们的赔率只有1.70左右，所以我们在这里用皇家社会+0.5个进球障碍。

在上一场比赛中，东道主在主场3-1击败里尔，理应获胜，但预期进球数(xG)比最终比分(2.44-1.66)更接近。在此之前，他们也在主场3-1击败了布雷斯特，比分是1.02-0.79。皇家社会在西甲踢了一个相当不错的赛季，在质量上比法甲要好得多。他们以37分排在第7位。在xPTS方面，他们既不幸运也不不幸。他们的进攻结构很好，但缺乏个人技术来竞争西甲前三的位置。另一方面，他们的防守非常稳固，愚蠢的个人失误很少。他们肯定会以一种有组织的方式进行防守，并且很可能会对平局感到高兴。他们只丢了22个球——这是世界第二好的联赛中第三低的数字!巴萨失33球，马德里失26球。客队在最近的20场比赛中只输了两场，他们拥有优秀的教练和团队精神。他们以12分赢得D组冠军。国米——上赛季的决赛选手，本菲卡和萨尔茨堡是另外三支球队。的确，他们最近并没有达到最佳状态，但他们可以在进攻端取得进步。他们在过去的四场比赛中打了三场0-0的平局!在上一场比赛中，他们0比1输给了奥萨苏纳，但他们的进球次数(21比9)、射正、射偏(8比0)以及危险进攻都更多!它们在xG - 1.66-0.45版本中生成的数据也更多