RB Leipzig and Real Madrid lock horns in this UEFA Champions League Playoffs first leg clash at Parken Stadium early Wednesday morning Beijing time. This is the best of UEFA's club competitions. I do expect this match to be of pretty high standards by thuis league's standards. There is, of course, no doubt about the fact that Real Madrid are the better team in terms of pure class here. However, they are missing their most important player, Jude Bellingham here. That is a massive loss for them and hurts their offense more than the bookies probably realize. Jude has been phenomenal this season and is a top-5 player in the world. They are also missing Alaba, Courtois - one of the best goalkeepers in the world – Militao and Rudiger. Real currently top the LaLiga standings with a fine 61 points to their account. However, we must not forget that they have taken many more points than they would have deserved in terms of expected points (PTS). In their last game they crushed Girona at home 4-0 and played well but Girona were simply bad in this game.

The home advantage is very big in international club games usually and this is the case here as well. Even so, with the expected lineups the current odds of around 2.25 offered by the bookies on Real to win are too low. They are, based on my expert analysis, only narrow favourites here. We will take the Leipzig +0.5 goals handicap option here. They are in 5th place in the Bundesliga but are, in reality, the 3rd best team in this league by pure class. They have taken 37 points but their number of xPTS is over 40. In their last game they played a 2-2 draw away from home against Augsburg but were the better team on the pitch. Their player Openda even missed a penalty. They generated much more in xG than the hosts – 1.98-0.77 to be precise. Before this they easily beat union Berlin 2-0 at home. They have performed well in the Champions League Playoffs at home in the past - even forcing Manchester City, the best team in the world, to a draw.

北京时间周三凌晨，莱比锡和皇马将在帕肯球场展开欧冠联赛季后赛首回合的较量。这是欧足联最好的俱乐部比赛。我确实希望这场比赛能达到联赛的高标准。当然，毫无疑问，皇马是一支实力更强的球队。然而，他们缺少了他们最重要的球员，裘德·贝灵汉。这对他们来说是一个巨大的损失，对他们进攻的伤害比博彩公司可能意识到的要大。裘德本赛季表现非凡，是世界排名前五的球员之一。他们也失去了阿拉巴、库尔图瓦——世界上最好的门将之一——米里托和吕迪格。皇马目前以61分的积分排名西甲第一。然而，我们不能忘记，他们已经取得了比他们应得的分数(分数)更多的分数。在上一场比赛中，他们在主场4-0击败了赫罗纳，踢得很好，但赫罗纳在这场比赛中表现糟糕。

主场优势通常在国际俱乐部比赛中是非常大的，在这里也是如此。即便如此，根据预期的阵容，目前博彩公司为皇马提供的2.25左右的胜率还是太低了。根据我的专家分析，他们在这方面的胜算不大。我们将在这里选择莱比锡+0.5个进球障碍选项。他们在德甲联赛中排名第五，但实际上，从纯粹的水平来看，他们是联赛中排名第三的球队。他们拿到了37分，但是他们的得分超过了40分。在上一场比赛中，他们在客场2-2战平奥格斯堡，但他们在球场上表现得更好。他们的球员奥彭达甚至罚丢了一个点球。它们在xG中产生的能量比宿主多得多——准确地说是1.98-0.77。在此之前，他们在主场2-0轻松击败柏林联盟。在过去的欧冠季后赛中，他们在主场表现出色，甚至逼平了世界上最好的球队曼城。