Bologna VS Lecce

Bologna host Lecce for this Italian Serie A round 24 battle at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara late Sunday evening Beijing time. This is the 4th-best league in the world. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry football bettors can expect a match of somewhat average level by this league's standards here. Most importantly we have yet another very good match to bet on here! It is very clear that the hosts are the much better team here. They have an edge over Lecce in all areas of the game. They have beaten Lecce in four of the last five games between the two teams. Last season Bologna finished in 9th place with 54 points to their account and have improved further this season. Indeed, they currently occupy the 7th place in the standings with a fine 36 points in their pocket. They have not been either lucky or unlucky in terms of expected points (xPTS). They are, slightly surprisingly, in a fierce fight for a top-6 position and even 4th place – and a ticket to the UEFA Champions League next season – is not completely out of their reach. They have a good coach – both in terms of tactical skills and leadership abilities. Lecce, a pretty small team for this level in terms of financial resources are in 13th place and have taken 24 points. However, their number of xPTS is only 18.23. They started the season well but started to decline pretty fast.

The home advantage here is substantial despite the fact that the Bologna fans are not the loudest in the Serie A. They have won eight of the 11 home games in this league this season. Lecce, on the other hand, have not won any of their away games! They are often way too passive on the road which usually results in too much pressure on their shaky defence. They have allowed 33 but their number of expected goals allowed is much higher! Indeed, their defensive structure is poor and silly individual mistakes are common. Their offense is not totally useless - 24 goals scored – but Bologna have netted the ball 29 times and have much more individual skill and creativity in the offense. Bologna have not been at their best lately, there is no denying this. However, they have also had some poor luck in some games recently. For example in round 20 they lost to Cagriari away from home 1-2 but had 61% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (11-4), shots on goal, shots off goal, corner kicks, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. They also generated more in expected goals (xG). In their last game they beat Sassuolo 4-2 at home after 71% ball possession and generating more than the visitors in xG. This was surely a big boost to their confidence. Lecce have lost 5/7 their last matches but did beat Fiorentina 3-2 in their last game. It was a good performance but Fiorentina played much below their normal level. I will not overreact to this result/performance. Way from home they have lost four games in a row after lame performances. Moreover, they have not won any of their last 12 games on the road! The odds of around 1.70 are available and this is too high! Based on my expert analysis they have a 64% chance of winning!

GOOD LUCK!

博洛尼亚VS莱切

北京时间周日晚，博洛尼亚主场迎战莱切，将在达拉雷纳托球场进行意甲第24轮比赛。这是世界上第四好的联赛。足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的足球投注者可以期待一场以联赛标准衡量的中等水平的比赛。最重要的是，我们又有一场精彩的比赛可以押注!很明显，东道主在这里的表现要好得多。他们在比赛的各个方面都比莱切有优势。在两队最近的五场比赛中，他们四次击败莱切。上赛季博洛尼亚以54分排名第9，本赛季他们的成绩有了进一步的提高。事实上，他们目前以36分的积分排在积分榜第7位。就期望积分(xPTS)而言，他们既不幸运也不不幸。有点令人惊讶的是，他们正在激烈地争夺前6名的位置，甚至第四名——以及下赛季欧洲冠军联赛的入场券——也不是完全遥不可及。他们有一个很好的教练——无论是战术技巧还是领导能力。莱切，一个相当小的团队在这个级别的财政资源方面，在第13位，已经得到24分。但是，他们的xPTS数量只有18.23个。他们本赛季开局不错，但很快就开始下滑。

尽管博洛尼亚的球迷并不是意甲球迷中声音最大的，但他们在本赛季联赛的11场主场比赛中赢了8场，主场优势还是很大的。另一方面，莱切还没有赢过一场客场比赛!他们在客场常常过于被动，这通常会给他们脆弱的防守带来太多压力。他们丢了33个球，但他们的预期失球数要高得多!事实上，他们的防守结构很差，个人愚蠢的错误很常见。博洛尼亚的进攻也不是一无是处，他们打进了24个球，但是博洛尼亚有29次进球，他们在进攻中有更多的个人技术和创造力。博洛尼亚最近并没有处于最佳状态，这是不可否认的。然而，他们在最近的一些比赛中运气也不太好。例如，在第20轮比赛中，他们在客场1比2输给了卡格里亚里，但他们有61%的控球率，并且记录了更多的进球次数(11比4)、射正、射偏、角球、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数。他们也产生了更多的预期目标(xG)。在上一场比赛中，他们在主场以71%的控球率4-2击败萨索洛，并且在上一场比赛中创造了比客队更多的进球。这无疑极大地增强了他们的信心。莱切在上一场比赛中输掉了5/7，但在上一场比赛中以3-2击败了佛罗伦萨。这是一场不错的比赛，但是佛罗伦萨的表现远远低于他们的正常水平。我不会对这个结果/表现反应过度。在客场，他们在糟糕的表现下连输四场。此外，他们在过去的12场客场比赛中没有赢过一场!大约1.70的赔率是可用的，这太高了!根据我的专家分析，他们有64%的机会获胜!

好运！