Cagliari VS Lazio

Cagliari welcome Lazio for this Italian Serie A round 24 battle at Unipol Domus early Sunday morning Beijing time. This is the fourth-best league on the planet. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry football bettors can expect a match of mediocre level by this league's standards here! Most importantly we have yet another very promising game to bet on here. My fans and I have won 7/8 last picks betting on Serie A! There is, of course, no doubt about the fact that Lazio are the better team here. The key question is how much stronger are they with the expected lineups.. Lazio are having a rather disappointing season so far. Indeed, last season they finished in 2nd place but were very lucky in terms of expected points (xPTS). They have 34 points to their account at the moment and occupy the 9th place in this league with a total of 20 clubs. Their number of xPTS is 31.45. Their offense is not much better than Cagliari's. Indeed, the visitors have netted the ball 25 times but their number of expected goals is higher though. They lack individual skill, speed and creativity to seriously challenge for the top-3 places. Cagliari have scored 21 goals but their number of xG is 27.35. In terms of defensive quality Lazio definitely have an edge over Cagliari. Indeed, despite not having any really big names in the defence silly individual mistakes are few and the structure is pretty good. Their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 26.01. Cagliari have allowed 42 goals and their defenders make too many stupid mistakes as well as give too risky passes near their own goal.. However, they can improve on this area of the game as the season progresses.. Their number of xGA is much lower than the actual number of 42. 

Cagliari are only in the 18th place with 18 points but this is misleading. Indeed, their number of xPTS is 25.89. The bookies offer Lazio odds of only about 2.20 to win here but this is too low! Taking the home advantage into account they are, based on my strongly data-based expert analysis, only marginal favourites. We will side with Cagliari here and place a bet on the +0.5 goals handicap option. Neither team have won any of their last three games. Lazio also has a big UEFA Champions League game coming up on Wednesday local time against Bayern Munich so some squad rotation is possible here. In their last game Lazio were weak and lost to Atalanta 1-3 away from home. They recorded only one shot on goal – the hosts had five. Moreover, Atalanta generated 2.67 in xG – Lazio's number was 0.89. Before this they played an uneventful 0-0 draw at home against Napoli – generating only 0.44 in xG. On the 19th of January Inter crushed Lazio 3-0 at a neutral location - KSU Stadium in a super Cup game. Lazio failed to record any shots on goal – Inter had seven. The xG numbers were 3.23-0.23. Cagliari were crushed by Roma in their last game (4-0) but the final score is still misleading. Cagliari had 12 goal attempts.. Roma were heavy favourites in this game. Before this Cagliari lost to Torino at home but recorded more goal attempts, shots on target as well as generated more in xG.

卡利亚里VS拉齐奥

北京时间周日凌晨，卡利亚里欢迎拉齐奥参加意甲联赛第24轮在尤尼波尔多莫斯的比赛。这是世界上第四好的联盟。足球迷和我们这些认真的、渴望利润的足球投注者可以期待一场以联赛标准衡量的平庸水平的比赛!最重要的是，我们还有另一场很有希望的比赛可以押注。我和我的球迷在最近的意甲比赛中赢了7/8 !毫无疑问，拉齐奥在这里是一支更好的球队。关键的问题是他们在预期的阵容下有多强。到目前为止，拉齐奥正经历着一个令人失望的赛季。事实上，上个赛季他们排在第二名，但在预期积分(xPTS)方面非常幸运。目前他们有34分，在联赛中排名第9，总共有20家俱乐部。他们的xPTS数量是31.45。他们的进攻并不比卡利亚里强多少。事实上，客队打进了25球，但他们的预期进球数更高。他们缺乏个人技术、速度和创造力，无法挑战前三名。卡利亚里进了21个球，但是他们的进球数是27.35个。就防守质量而言，拉齐奥绝对比卡利亚里有优势。的确，尽管后防线上没有什么大牌，但愚蠢的个人失误很少，结构也很好。他们的预期进球(xGA)是26.01个。卡利亚里丢了42个球，他们的后卫犯了太多愚蠢的错误，而且在自己的球门附近传球太危险了。然而，随着赛季的进行，他们可以在这方面有所提高。他们的xGA数远低于实际的42。

卡利亚里仅以18分排在第18位，但这是误导。实际上，他们的xpt数量是25.89。博彩公司给拉齐奥的赔率只有2.20，但这太低了!根据我以数据为基础的专家分析，考虑到主场优势，他们只是边缘热门。我们将站在卡利亚里这边，在+0.5个进球的障碍选项上下注。这两支球队最近三场比赛都没有赢过一场。拉齐奥在当地时间周三还有一场重要的欧冠比赛，对手是拜仁慕尼黑，所以这里可能会有一些阵容轮换。在上一场比赛中，拉齐奥很弱，客场1-3不敌亚特兰大。他们只有一次射门，而主队有五次射门。此外，亚特兰大在xG的进球是2.67，而拉齐奥是0.89。在此之前，他们在主场0-0战平那不勒斯，全场仅产生0.44个进球。在1月19日的超级杯比赛中，国米在中立地点KSU体育场以3-0击败拉齐奥。拉齐奥没有任何射门，国米有7次射门。xG值为3.23 ~ 0.23。卡利亚里在上一场比赛中被罗马击败(4-0)，但最终比分仍然具有误导性。卡利亚里有12次射门。罗马队在这场比赛中是大热门。在此之前，卡利亚里在主场输给了都灵，但他的进球次数和射门次数都有所增加。