In my opinion Freiburg have all the required tools to avoid loss in today's match.

Freiburg have big mental advantage before this game as they didn't lost against Werder in last 5 consecutive matches and won last three in a row against them.

Freiburg is better team at both ends of the pitch and that should be visible today on the pitch. They are on 7th position in league table and this is not coincidence. They are on 7th position according to the expected goals scored model and on 6th according to the expected goals conceded model. Werder Bremen is bottom half of the table in both departments.

Freiburg in first two matches of 2024 made 4 points, but should even more. They recorded draw 0:0 at home against Union, but they should win: expected goals scored for Freiburg 1.79, for Union 0.46. Freiburg is very solid team, they went unbeaten in 8 of last 10 matches in all competitions.

Werder also made 4 points in first two matches of 2024, but they had a lot of luck. They recorded draw 1:1 against Bochum by very late goal and somehow won on the road against Bayern (expected goals scored for Werder 0.43, for Bayern 1.93). Werder is very inconsistent team, only 2 wins in last 10 matches in all competitions.

在我看来，弗赖堡拥有避免在今天的比赛中失利的所有必要手段。

弗赖堡在这场比赛前有很大的心理优势，因为他们在过去的5场比赛中没有输给云达，并且在最近的3场比赛中取得了胜利。

弗莱堡在攻防两端都是一支更好的球队，这在今天的比赛中应该是显而易见的。他们在联赛中排名第七，这不是巧合。根据预期进球模型，他们排名第七，根据预期失球模型，他们排名第六。云达不莱梅在这两个方面都排名垫底。

弗赖堡在2024年的前两场比赛中得到了4分，但应该更多。他们在主场0比0战平了联盟，但他们应该会赢:弗赖堡的预期进球数为1.79，联盟为0.46。弗赖堡是一支非常稳固的球队，他们在最近10场比赛中8场不败。

云达在2024年的前两场比赛中也拿到了4分，但他们运气很好。他们以1:1战平波鸿，并在客场战胜拜仁(云达预期进球数0.43，拜仁预期进球数1.93)。云达是一支非常不稳定的球队，最近10场比赛只赢了2场。