It's late call from me, but odds on United raised too high and now I see excellent value on home side.

United at Old Trafford even in current poor season is not walking bye. 5 wins in 9 home league matches is not horrible result.

United have superb record at home against Aston Villa. 10 wins in last 13 matches against them front of home crowd and only one loss in the process.

United scored only 18 goals in current season, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score 27.4. Guests in-form central defender Torres is on the bench, that should help.

Obviously, Aston Villa plays excellent season, but they are still not top class team on the road - failed to win in 5 of 9 away league matches and conceded 16 goals in the process.

Guests overachieving in attack. 38 goals scored, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score 31.8.

Despite league table, I don't see guests so low here.

这是我很晚才打的电话，但曼联的赔率太高了，现在我看到了主队的巨大价值。

曼联在老特拉福德，即使是在这个糟糕的赛季，也不会就此告别。9场主场5胜并不可怕。

曼联在主场对阵阿斯顿维拉的比赛中有着出色的战绩，在过去的13场比赛中，他们在主场赢了10场，只输了一场。

曼联本赛季只进了18球，但根据预期进球模型，他们应该进27.4球。客人状态良好的中后卫托雷斯坐在替补席上，这应该会有所帮助。

显然，阿斯顿维拉本赛季表现出色，但他们在客场仍然不是顶级球队——联赛9场客场比赛中有5场未能获胜，并在此过程中丢了16球。

客人在进攻中表现得过于出色。38个进球，但根据预期进球模型，他们应该得分31.8。

尽管排名很靠前，但我没看到这里的客人排名这么低。