In my opinion Sporting have bigger chances to avoid loss in this game than bookies wants to suggest for us in their odds.

First match between both teams in this group finished with Atalanta 2:1 win on away, but that wasn't fully deserved as both teams finished with exactly same number of expected goals scored: 2.13.

Since that game Atalanta played 8 games in all competitions and failed to win 5 times (they won against Sturm Graz and two teams from bottom 6 in Serie A). Atalanta results in Serie A looks better than really should. They scored 21 goals in 14 matches, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score 15.9. In addition to that in key matches they have problems with stability at the back, Atalanta already conceded too many silly goals. We saw it against Napoli at the weekend (1:2 loss at home). Coach Di Marzio said: “Unfortunately, some incidents prevent us from raising the bar. The game was on our side and yet we emerged empty-handed due to an error, something that is happening too often lately.“

Sporting have big advantage in fitness department because at the weekend they had a game cup and key players not played 90 minutes there. For sure freshness is on guests side. In addition to that Sporting is in better form than Atlanta since first game between both teams. 7 wins in that period, only one loss - in big derby game against Benfica after very late goal conceded. Sporting offensive formation is very hard to stop - they scored at least one goal in all 18 matches in all competitions in current season. They have all required tools to score something against Atalanta unstable defensive formation.

Both teams fighting for first position in this group (group winner have free pass in 1/16). For sure motivation is good. Atalanta have 3 points more than Sporting so for them even draw is good.

On those circumstances double chance on Sporting looks like excellent option to play.

在我看来，在这场比赛中，体育有更大的机会避免失败，而不是博彩公司给我们的赔率。

这两支球队的第一场比赛以亚特兰大2:1的胜利结束，但这并不完全值得，因为两支球队的预期进球数完全相同:2.13。

从那场比赛开始，亚特兰大在各项赛事中打了8场比赛，5次没有赢球(他们赢了格拉茨和两支意甲垫底的球队)。亚特兰大在意甲的成绩看起来比应该的要好。他们在14场比赛中进了21球，但根据预期进球模型，他们应该进15.9球。除此之外，在关键的比赛中，他们后防线的稳定性也存在问题，亚特兰大已经丢了太多愚蠢的球。我们在周末主场1:2输给那不勒斯的比赛中就看到了这一点。主教练迪马齐奥说:“不幸的是，一些事件阻碍了我们提高标准。比赛本来是在我们这边的，但我们却因为一个错误而空手而归，这种事情最近经常发生。”

竞技在体能方面有很大的优势，因为周末他们有一个足总杯，关键球员没有打满90分钟。当然，新鲜感是客人的。除此之外，自从两队的第一场比赛以来，竞技的状态就比亚特兰大好。在这段时间里取得了7场胜利，只有一场失利——在德比大战中对阵本菲卡的比赛中，在最后时刻丢了球。竞技的进攻阵型很难被阻挡——他们在本赛季各项赛事的全部18场比赛中至少进了一个球。他们都需要一些工具来对付亚特兰大不稳定的防守阵型。

两队均为小组第一而战(小组冠军可在1/16获得免费通行证)。当然，动机是好的。亚特兰大比竞技多3分，所以对他们来说，即使平局也很好。

在这种情况下，对竞技的双倍机会看起来是一个很好的选择。