In my opinion Osasuna have really good chances to make at least one point in today’s match up.

After 13 rounds Osasuna is on 13th position, 2 places above Villarreal with two points more on their account.

Osasuna coming for this game with best possible line up, they don’t have any serious absences and this is very positive information, no doubt about that. Their form is very up and down. 4 losses in last 8 matches, but they kept clean sheet 3 times during that run, they also lost against top quality opponents like Real Madrid, Atletico, Girona or Betis – no shame at all, still their form looks much more convincing in comparison to Villarreal.

Hosts of today’s match up failed to win in 7 of last 8 matches in La Liga and for me is very hard to trust for them today. For sure they coming for this game with confidence on very low level.

Villarreal looks a bit better than Osasuna in attack. In current season they scored 3 goals more (according to the expected goals scored model they should score 2.3 goals more), but I don’t see advantage for them today because their second-best scorer Sorloth (6 goals) is unavailable today, same as important winger Pino. It’s huge blow.

On the other hand Osasuna is much more solid at the back. Guests conceded 21 goals, but according to the expected goals conceded model they should concede 18.5. According to the same model, Villarreal should concede 5 goals more (23.5) and they conceded 24.. In addition to that, today their central defenders Gabbia & Mandi are very doubtful for this game.

On those circumstances I see good opportunity for Osasuna to avoid loss.

在我看来奥萨苏纳有很好的机会在今天的比赛中至少得一分。

13轮过后，奥萨苏纳排在第13位，比比利亚雷亚尔高出2个名次，还多得2分。

奥萨苏纳带着最好的阵容来参加这场比赛，他们没有严重的缺阵，这是非常积极的消息，毫无疑问。它们的形状起伏不定。在过去的8场比赛中，他们输了4场，但在这段时间里他们有3次不失球，他们也输给了像皇家马德里、马竞、赫罗纳和贝蒂斯这样的顶级对手——一点也不羞耻，但他们的状态看起来比比利亚雷亚尔更有说服力。

今天的东道主在西甲最近的8场比赛中有7场没有获胜，对我来说，今天很难相信他们。可以肯定的是，他们是带着非常低的自信来参加这场比赛的。

比利亚雷亚尔在进攻端看起来比奥萨苏纳要好一些。本赛季他们多进了3个球(根据预期进球模型，他们应该多进2.3个球)，但我没有看到他们今天的优势，因为他们的第二好射手索洛斯(6个进球)今天不能上场，重要的边锋皮诺也是如此。这是一个巨大的打击。

另一方面，奥萨苏纳在后防线上更加稳固。客人丢了21球，但根据预期丢球模型，他们应该丢18.5球。按照同样的模型，比利亚雷亚尔应该多丢5个球(23.5个)，但他们丢了24个。除此之外，今天他们的中卫加比亚和曼迪对这场比赛的表现也很怀疑。

在这种情况下，我认为奥萨苏纳有机会避免损失。