Sweden VS Estonia

Sweden welcome Estonia for this UEFA EURO Qualification round 10 (officially) clash at Friends Arena in Solna very early Monday morning Beijing time. However, in reality both teams have played seven games. This is the last round of play. Football fans and us serious football bettors – with a long-term profit in mind can expect a match of slightly below average level by international standards. Even so, we have yet another lucrative betting opportunity here to increase the hot streak of 12/13 last won - at the time of posting this analysis. Austria top the group with 19 points and they – or Belgium, currently in 2nd place with 17 points will win the group. The top-2 countries qualify for the EURO 2024 played in Germany next summer. Sweden have only seven points to their account and have, obviously, lost their chances for qualification. Nearly all football teams on the planet want to entertain their fans - especially in the last home game of the season/tournament/qualification campaign!  If the visitors has nothing to play for really, the home win  - often by a  clear margin - is often a lucrative betting option! Football fans have witnessed several good examples of this this week.. On Thursday Luxembourg, the underdogs according to, were very motivated - as they had a slim chance of qualifying - and crushed past Bosnia & Herzegovina 4-1 at home. They didn't quit fighting even after hearing that their chances had vanished during the match.. Also on Thursday Slovakia dominated Iceland on the pitch, winning 4-2 at home. They did not settle for a narrow win - or a draw - and kept pushing! On Friday Finland, my home country, defeated Northern Ireland, a team who are only a little worse by pure class, 4-0 in Helsinki in front of almost 30 000 fans in cold conditions. The players said after the game that they wanted to keep fighting and scoring for the fans! Finland, like Sweden here, did not even have anything to play for in this game and the odds on them to win were around 2.20 by the start of the game. Finland had lost the last three games and were very annoyed by this – wanting to prove they can play at a good level! This is the case for Sweden here! Their qualification has been a big disappointment but their number of expected points (xPTS) is still 10.12. They have qualified for several European championships - as well as World Cups in the last couple of decades and Sweden has a pretty strong football culture.. The capacity of this stadium is 50 000 and a good number of fans are expected to show up in support of their national team. 

Yes, Sweden were very disappointing in their last game – losing to Azerbaijan as big favourites – priced around 1.45 to win by the bookies. Even so, they had 59% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (19-8), shots on goal, shots off goal, corner kicks, attacks and dangerous attacks than the hosts. They also generated 1.94 in expected goals (xG) – Azerbaijan managed only 0.87. However, I will not react to this match and result too heavily. The bookies, on the other hand, seem to have reacted rather strongly. Sweden received a lot of criticism in the football media – especially in Sweden – and their goalkeepers said that the players should be ashamed of themselves! All this may have an effect on the odds but I see this embarrassment as extra motivation for the players. The odds on Sweden to win by a margin of at least two goals are too high! The chance of my fans and me winning with the -1.5 goals handicap is  73.50%. This could easily be a very clear win for Sweden – depending on the possible rotation from both teams' managers and Estonia's level of motivation. They are a very limited team and have taken just one point in this qualification! Their score difference is abysmal – 2:20 to be precise! Their defence is poorly organized and silly individual mistakes are common. Their offensive players lack basically everything to score at this level! In their last game they lost to Austria 0-2 at home. The visitors were far from their best level and had already secured a top-2 place but Estonia still did not have much of a chance and failed to record any shots on goal! Estonia and Sweden last locked horns in Tallinn in September and Sweden crushed the hosts completely – generating over 4.00 in expected goals! They also recorded 10 shots on goal. Estonia were, once again, very lame offensively and failed to shoot on target even once! Estonia are in 118th place in the FIFA ranking – Sweden occupy the 23rd place. This reflects the difference in class between the teams well!

瑞典VS爱沙尼亚

北京时间周一凌晨，瑞典队将在索尔纳的朋友体育馆迎来欧洲杯预选赛第十轮对阵爱沙尼亚的比赛。然而，实际上两支球队都打了7场比赛。这是最后一轮比赛了。足球迷和我们认真的足球投注者-考虑到长期利润-可以期待一场比赛略低于国际标准的平均水平。即便如此，我们还有另一个有利可图的投注机会，可以增加去年12/13的连胜纪录——在发表这篇分析的时候。奥地利以19分排名小组第一，他们或目前以17分排名第二的比利时将赢得小组冠军。获得2024年欧洲杯参赛资格的前两名国家将于明年夏天在德国举行。瑞典队目前只剩下7分，显然已经失去了出线的机会。这个星球上几乎所有的足球队都想娱乐他们的球迷——尤其是在赛季/锦标赛/资格赛的最后一场主场比赛!如果客队真的没有什么可玩的，主场的胜利——通常是明显的优势——往往是一个有利可图的赌博选择!足球迷们本周目睹了几个这样的好例子。在周四的比赛中，被认为处于劣势的卢森堡队表现得非常积极，因为他们出线的机会很小，他们在主场4-1击败了波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那。即使在比赛中听说他们的机会已经消失，他们也没有停止战斗。同样是在周四，斯洛伐克在主场以4比2战胜了冰岛。他们没有满足于一场险胜或平局，而是继续推进!周五，我的祖国芬兰在赫尔辛基寒冷的天气里，在近3万名球迷面前，以4比0击败了纯粹水平差一点的北爱尔兰。球员们赛后说，他们想继续战斗，为球迷得分!芬兰队和瑞典队一样，在这场比赛中甚至没有什么可踢的，比赛开始时，他们获胜的赔率约为2.20。芬兰队输掉了最近三场比赛，他们对此非常恼火——想要证明他们可以踢出好的水平!这就是瑞典的情况!他们的出线非常令人失望，但他们的期望积分(xPTS)仍然是10.12。在过去的几十年里，他们有资格参加几届欧洲锦标赛和世界杯，瑞典有很强的足球文化。这个体育场能容纳5万人，预计会有很多球迷到场支持他们的国家队。

是的，瑞典在上一场比赛中表现非常令人失望——输给了大热门阿塞拜疆——博彩公司的胜率约为1.45。即便如此，他们有59%的控球率，并且比东道主有更多的射门次数(19胜8负)、射正、射偏、角球、进攻和危险进攻。他们还创造了1.94个预期进球(xG)，阿塞拜疆只创造了0.87个。然而，我不会对这场比赛和结果做出太大的反应。另一方面，博彩公司的反应似乎相当强烈。瑞典在足球媒体上受到了很多批评，尤其是在瑞典，他们的守门员说球员应该为自己感到羞耻!所有这些都可能会影响到赔率，但我认为这种尴尬对球员来说是额外的动力。瑞典队以至少两球的优势获胜的几率太高了!我和我的球迷在胜率为-1.5的情况下获胜的几率是73.50%。这对瑞典来说可能是一场非常明显的胜利——这取决于两队主教练的轮换和爱沙尼亚的积极性。他们是一支非常有限的球队，在这次资格赛中只拿了一分!他们的比分差太大了——准确地说是2:20 !他们的防守组织得很差，愚蠢的个人失误很常见。他们的进攻球员基本上缺乏在这个水平上得分的一切!在上一场比赛中，他们在主场0比2输给了奥地利。客队远没有达到最佳状态，他们已经锁定了前2名的位置，但爱沙尼亚仍然没有多少机会，没有任何射门!爱沙尼亚和瑞典上一次在塔林交手是在9月，瑞典彻底击败了东道主——预期进球数超过4.00个!他们还记录了10次射门。爱沙尼亚的进攻又一次很差劲，一次射门都射不中!在国际足联排名中，爱沙尼亚排在第118位，瑞典排在第23位。这很好地反映了两支球队的阶级差异!