A GREAT match to bet on! ¥¥¥ 欧预赛 荷兰VS爱尔兰
2023-11-18

Tapio

外籍分析师

欧预赛

11/19 03:45

已完赛

荷兰
1:0
爱尔兰
解读理由:

Netherlands VS Ireland


Netherlands host Ireland for this UEFA EURO Qualification round 9 (officially) battle at Johan Cruijff Arena in Amsterdam early Sunday morning Beijing time. However, in reality the hosts have played six games and Ireland seven matches so far. A total of eight rounds will be played in this group – in some groups 10 rounds will be played. Football fans and us serious football bettors – with a long-term profit in mind can expect a match of slightly better than average level by international standards. We have yet another lucrative betting opportunity here to increase the hot streak. The situation for the hosts is straightforward here. With a win they will secure a top-2 position. The top-2 countries qualify for the EURO 2024 played in Germany next summer .If points are tied at the end of the competition, head-to-head matches will be the tie-breaker. France have already won the group - after taking maximum points. Netherlands have 12 points to their account but have beaten Greece twice already. The Greeks, too, have grabbed 12 points but have just one more game left and would need help from Ireland and or Gibraltar to qualify. This scenario is extremely unlikely.. I believe that the Dutch are very determined to get the job done here! Anything can happen in a football match – like we saw last month when San Marino pushed Denmark hard – even levelling to score in the second half! Denmark did win 2-1 though. Gibraltar are a more dangerous – or should we say " less terrible" team than San Marino. Indeed, I do not see the Dutch willing to leave any possibility for a major catastrophe in Gibraltar in Tuesday's final round. I expect the hosts to push hard right from the kick off – putting big pressure on the Irish defence. Ireland have allowed only nine goals but their defence is, in reality, weaker than the current number of goals conceded would reflect. Indeed, their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 13.11. Ireland have been a disappointment in this qualification. They have been able to beat only Gibraltar – and have lost the rest of the games. In their last game they defeated Gibraltar 4-0 but I do not give this match a lot of emphasis. They, of course, deserved the three points. However, the final score flatters them. Before this they were disappointing at home losing to Greece 0-2 as favourites – priced around 2.40 to win by the bookies. Greece have been in decline for about 10 years now so this home defeat reflects how lame Ireland have been.. They do not have much to play for here.. Even if they did, the Dutch would still be big favourites as the difference in pure class between the teams is substantial! The hosts have the biggest edge over Ireland in terms of individual skill – especially offensively. Ireland do have a decent structure in their game but most of their players are too slow and their first touch after receiving a pass is very often too bad for them to be able to challenge top-teams like the Netherlands!

Games where the home team are highly motivated – and the visitors are not – at least 100% -  often offer lucrative betting opportunities especially in handicap betting! In these kinds of games the margin of win is often bigger than in matches where both sides have a lot of stake – and the goal difference may turn out to be of importance in the future. Almost every football team in the world want to entertain their fans - especially in the last home game of the season/campaign! We have witnessed a few examples of this in the past couple of days. On Thursday Luxembourg, the underdogs on the betting market, were very motivated and swept past Bosnia & Herzegovina 4-1 at home. Also on Thursday Slovakia dominated Iceland, winning 4-2 at home. Yesterday Finland, my home country, defeated Northern Ireland, a team who are only marginally worse by pure class, 4-0 in Helsinki in front of some 30 000 fans in freezing conditions. The players said after the game that they wanted to keep scoring for the fans! Finland did not even have anything to play for in this game and the odds on them to win were around 2.20 at the time of kick off. The Dutch people are true football enthusiasts and will not allow the hosts to play lazy football here.. We will take the Netherlands -1.5 goals handicap option here with a 64% chance of winning. Odds of around 1.75 are widely available at the time of posting this preview. I would not, however, be at all surprised if the final score were 3-0 or even 4-0.. For the fans wanting to go for bigger odds - odds of around 3.00 are available on the -2.5 goals handicap – the probability of winning this riskier bet is 39.50%.

The Netherlands were excellent in their last game in Greece despite winning only 1-0. Their player Weghorst could afford to miss a penalty in the 28th minute. The visitors had 58% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts, shots on goal (6-2), corner kicks, total passes, completed assists and attacks. Moreover they generated 2.21 in xG – Greece managed only 0.31! Before this France were too strong for the Dutch to deal with at this same stadium and escaped with a 2-1 win. France, however, generated only marginally more in xG – 0.76-0.72 to be precise. It was a decent performance from the hosts as underdogs on the betting market. In September Ireland played a better game than usual at home but the Dutch still took a 2-1 win. Before this Netherlands swept past Greece winning 3-0. The Greeks generated only 0.14 in xG and managed just one shot on goal. Netherlands possible starting lineup: Verbruggen; De Vrij, Van Dijk, Blind, Dumfries, Reijnders, Wieffer, Hartman; Simons, Weghorst, Gakpo. Look at the quality the Dutch have in the team despite some injuries, for example Manchester City's Nathan Ake. Ireland possible starting lineup: Kelleher, Doherty, Duffy, Scales, Manning; Knight, Cullen, Molumby; Sykes, Ferguson, Johnston. This lineup is nothing to get too excited about.. I also want to mention that Ireland are in the 57th place in the FIFA ranking – the hosts occupy the 7th place. Let's not forget that they pushed Argentina, the reigning world champions, all the way to penalties in the quarter-finals in the World Cup in Qatar last year..



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荷兰VS爱尔兰


北京时间周日凌晨,荷兰将在阿姆斯特丹约翰克鲁伊夫体育馆迎战爱尔兰,进行欧洲杯预选赛第9轮(官方)对战。然而,到目前为止,东道主已经打了6场比赛,爱尔兰打了7场比赛。本组共进行8轮比赛,有的组进行10轮比赛。足球迷和我们认真的足球投注者-考虑到长期利润,可以期待一场比赛略高于国际标准的平均水平。我们还有另一个赚钱的机会来增加连胜纪录。东道主的处境很简单。如果赢了,他们将稳居前二的位置。排名前两名的国家将有资格参加明年夏天在德国举行的2024年欧洲杯。如果比赛结束时积分持平,那么将进行一对一的决胜局。法国队在拿到了最高分之后,已经赢得了小组第一。荷兰队目前积12分,但已经两次击败希腊。希腊人也拿到了12分,但只剩下最后一场比赛,他们需要爱尔兰和直布罗陀的帮助才能出线。这种情况极不可能发生。我相信荷兰人非常有决心在这里完成这项工作!足球比赛中任何事情都有可能发生——就像我们上个月看到的那样,圣马力诺把丹麦逼得很紧——甚至在下半场扳平比分!丹麦2:1获胜。直布罗陀是一支比圣马力诺更危险——或者我们应该说“不那么可怕”的球队。的确,我不认为荷兰人愿意在星期二的最后一轮比赛中给直布罗陀留下任何发生重大灾难的可能性。我希望东道主从开球开始就向右大力推进,给爱尔兰的防线施加巨大压力。爱尔兰只丢了9个球,但实际上,他们的防守比目前的失球数所反映的要弱。实际上,他们的预期进球数(xGA)是13.11。爱尔兰在本届预选赛中表现令人失望。他们只击败了直布罗陀,并且输掉了剩下的比赛。在上一场比赛中,他们4-0击败了直布罗陀,但我不太重视这场比赛。当然,这三分是他们应得的。然而,最终的比分让他们感到高兴。在此之前,他们在主场0-2负于希腊的比赛中表现令人失望——博彩公司开出的赔率在2.40左右。希腊已经衰落了大约10年了,所以这次主场失利反映了爱尔兰有多差劲。他们在这里没什么可玩的。即使他们这样做了,荷兰队仍然是最大的热门,因为两队之间的纯粹等级差异是巨大的!东道主在个人技术方面比爱尔兰有最大的优势,尤其是在进攻方面。爱尔兰在比赛中确实有一个不错的结构,但他们的大多数球员都太慢了,他们在接到传球后的第一次触球往往太糟糕了,无法挑战像荷兰这样的顶级球队!

主队积极性很高的比赛——而客队积极性不高——至少是100%——通常会提供有利可图的投注机会,尤其是在残障投注中!在这种类型的比赛中,获胜的幅度通常比双方都有很多利害关系的比赛更大——而且净胜球的差距在未来可能会变得很重要。世界上几乎每支足球队都想让他们的球迷开心,尤其是在赛季/赛季的最后一场主场比赛!在过去几天里,我们目睹了一些这样的例子。周四,在博彩市场上处于下风的卢森堡队在主场以4-1大胜波黑。同样在周四,斯洛伐克主场4-2战胜冰岛。昨天,我的祖国芬兰在赫尔辛基,在寒冷的天气里,当着3万名球迷的面,以4比0击败了北爱尔兰,这支球队在纯粹的水平上只差一点点。球员们赛后说,他们想继续为球迷得分!芬兰队在这场比赛中甚至没有什么可踢的,开球时他们获胜的赔率约为2.20。荷兰人是真正的足球爱好者,不会允许东道主在这里踢懒球。我们将荷兰队的胜率定为-1.5,胜率为64%。在发布这个预览时,1.75左右的赔率是广泛可用的。然而,如果最终比分是3-0甚至4-0,我一点也不会感到惊讶。对于那些想要获得更大赔率的球迷来说——在-2.5个进球的不利条件下,赔率约为3.00——赢得这个高风险赌注的概率为39.50%。

荷兰队在上一场与希腊的比赛中表现出色,尽管他们只以1-0取胜。他们的球员

韦格霍斯特在第28分钟错失了一个点球。客队的控球率为58%,进球次数、射正次数(6-2)、角球次数、总传球次数、完成助攻次数和进攻次数都更多。此外,他们在上届世界杯上只取得了2.21个进球,而希腊只取得了0.31个!在此之前,法国队在同样的球场对荷兰队来说太强大了,他们以2-1获胜。然而,法国在2009年的产出仅略高——准确地说是0.76-0.72。东道主在博彩市场上处于劣势,但表现不错。9月,爱尔兰在主场踢得比平时好,但荷兰还是以2-1取胜。在此之前,荷兰队以3比0横扫希腊。希腊队的射门得分仅为0.14,射正1次。荷兰可能的首发阵容:维尔布鲁根;De Vrij, Van Dijk, Blind, Dumfries, Reijnders, Wieffer, Hartman;Simons, Weghorst, Gakpo。看看荷兰队的实力吧,尽管有一些伤病,比如曼城的内森·阿克。爱尔兰可能的首发阵容:凯莱赫、多尔蒂、达菲、斯凯尔斯、曼宁;奈特、卡伦、莫伦比;赛克斯,弗格森,约翰斯顿。这个阵容没什么好激动的。我还想提一下,爱尔兰在国际足联的排名是第57位,东道主排在第7位。别忘了,在去年的卡塔尔世界杯1 / 4决赛中,他们把卫冕冠军阿根廷队一路逼到点球大战。

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