In my opinion Finland have really good chances to make 3 points front of home crowd today.

First match between both teams in this group finished with Finland 1:0 win on away and that was fully deserved result as they had more shots, higher ball possession and bigger expected goals scored number.

Finland at one stage of current campaign looked great as they had 4 wins in 5 matches ( 2:0 win at home against Slovenia – leader of the table). Unfortunately, Finland lost last 3 matches in a row. For sure that was very disappointing and for sure they wants to bounce back on good track front of home crowd, in last home game in this competition. Despite 3 losses in a row (against 3 the strongest teams in this group), Finland played better than results suggests for us. They lost 0:1 at home against Denmark, but Denmark had 0.56 expected goals scored. They lost 0:3 on the road against Slovenia, but match was much closer: expected goals scored for Slovenia 1.63, for Finland 0.84 (Finland had higher ball possession). In last round they lost at home against Kazakhstan, but they had higher ball possession, 7 shots more and bigger expected goals scored number. No problems with squad, we should see very strong line up on home side.

On the other hand Northern Ireland have enormous problems with squad today. Coach O’Neill cancelled training at Monday as he don’t have enough players to train in full mode. Today Northern Ireland is without 13 (!!!) players (including team captain, first goalkeeper or top player) – many of them played in first squad in first game against Finland. It’s huge blow and should have very bad impact on guests performance today. Anyway, they are looking horrible in current campaign (6 losses in 8 matches), two wins against super poor San Marino. For me is very hard to imagine big improvement from Northern Ireland today.

On those circumstances I see excellent value on home side.

在我看来，芬兰队今天有很好的机会在主场拿下3分。

两支球队在小组赛的第一场比赛中，芬兰队在客场1:0获胜，这是他们应得的结果，因为他们有更多的射门，更高的控球率和更高的预期进球数。

芬兰队在最近5场比赛中取得了4场胜利(主场2:0战胜了积分榜第一的斯洛文尼亚)。不幸的是，芬兰队最近3场比赛都输了。当然，这是非常令人失望的，当然，他们希望在主场观众面前恢复到良好的状态，这是本赛事的最后一场主场比赛。尽管连输3场(对手是小组中最强的3支球队)，芬兰队的表现比我们想象的要好。他们在主场0:1输给了丹麦，但丹麦的预期进球数为0.56。他们在客场0:3输给了斯洛文尼亚，但两场比赛的比分要接近得多:斯洛文尼亚的预期进球数为1.63，芬兰为0.84(芬兰的控球率更高)。上一轮他们主场输给了哈萨克斯坦，但他们控球率更高，射门次数多了7次，预期进球数也更大了。阵容没有问题，我们将在主场看到非常强大的阵容。

另一方面，北爱尔兰今天在阵容上有很大的问题。主教练奥尼尔取消了周一的训练，因为他没有足够的球员进行全员训练。今天北爱尔兰缺少13名(!!)球员(包括队长、主力门将或顶级球员)——他们中的许多人在对阵芬兰的第一场比赛中都参加了一线队。这是一个巨大的打击，应该会对客人今天的表现产生非常糟糕的影响。不管怎么说，他们在目前的比赛中看起来很糟糕(8场比赛输了6场)，对超级贫穷的圣马力诺赢了两场。对我来说，很难想象北爱尔兰今天会有什么大的改善。

在这种情况下，我认为主队很有价值。