In my opinion Macedonia have bigger chances to avoid big loss than bookies wants to suggest for us in their lines. +2.5 AH on away side looks like great option to play.

For sure Macedonia have big mental advantage and coming for this game without any fear. They played 3 matches against Italy and 3 times avoided loss. Macedonia knocked out Italy from World Cup 2022 play offs. First match between both teams in this group finished with draw 1:1 in Skopje. That was first match for Luciano Spaletti on the Italian bench.

Since then Italy won 2:1 at home against Ukraine, won 4:0 at home against Malta and in last round they lost 1:3 on the road against England. For sure confidence is not on the highest possible level. I’m not really convinced by Italian firepower. Despite big 4:0 win at home against Malta, they not looked superb in attack even against such poor opposition. Italy in that game had only 1.13 expected goals scored. Today we will see 3 offensive players: Berardi (5 matches in Serie A without goal), Scammaca (looked poor in last two matches, low ratings) and Chiesa (6 matches in a row in Serie A without goal or assist). Those players are not in top form and hard to expect from them high quality performance today. North Macedonian goalkeeper is not easy nut to crack. Dimitrevski (Rayo Vallecano) two weeks ago played great against Real Madrid in La Liga, he kept clean sheet.

Macedonia have some dangerous players in attack like Elmas, Bardhi or Trajkovski. In last away match they failed to score against Ukraine, but they had 1.20 expected goals scored. Italy is not rock solid at the back – they kept clean sheet only two times in last 10 matches (twice against poor Malta).

For Italy this is ‘must win’ game if they wants to play in Euro 2024. The most important thing is to make 3 points, big scoreline is not the highest priority. On those circumstances this line is simply too high. I still expect Italy win, but with one (maybe two) goals margin.

在我看来，马其顿有更大的机会避免大的损失比博彩公司希望我们在他们的线。客场+2.5 AH看起来是个不错的选择。

毫无疑问，马其顿有很大的心理优势，他们会毫无畏惧地参加这场比赛。他们与意大利进行了3场比赛，3次避免失利。马其顿在2022年世界杯附加赛中淘汰了意大利。该组两队的第一场比赛在斯科普里以1:1战平。这是斯帕莱蒂在意大利板凳席上的第一场比赛。

此后，意大利主场2:1战胜乌克兰，主场4:0战胜马耳他，上一轮客场1:3负于英格兰。当然，信心并没有达到可能的最高水平。我不太相信意大利的火力。尽管在主场4:0大胜马耳他，但即使面对如此糟糕的对手，他们的进攻看起来也不是很出色。意大利在那场比赛中只有1.13个预期进球。今天我们将看到3名进攻球员:贝拉尔迪(5场意甲没有进球)，斯卡马卡(最近两场比赛看起来很糟糕，收视率很低)和基耶萨(连续6场意甲没有进球和助攻)。这些球员的状态不是最好的，很难期待他们今天有高质量的表现。北马其顿的守门员可不是个好对付的家伙。迪米特列夫斯基(巴列卡诺)两周前在西甲对阵皇马的比赛中表现出色，他没有失球。

马其顿在进攻端有一些危险的球员，比如埃尔马斯、巴尔迪和特拉伊科夫斯基。在上一场客场对阵乌克兰的比赛中，他们没有进球，但他们有1.20个预期进球。意大利的后防线并非坚如磐石，他们在过去的10场比赛中只有2场没有失球(两次对阵可怜的马耳他)。

对于意大利来说，如果他们想参加2024年欧洲杯，这是一场“必须赢”的比赛。最重要的是拿3分，大比分不是最优先考虑的。在这种情况下，这条线实在太高了。我仍然希望意大利能赢，但是会有一个(也许两个)球的优势。