Chile VS Paraguay

Chile host Paraguay for this South America World Championship Qualification round 5 battle at Estadio Monumental David Arellano in Santiago de Chile early Friday morning Beijing time. Football lovers and us serious bettors – with a long-term profit in mind can expect a match of rather mediocre level by international standards here. However, we have yet another promising betting opportunity here. A total of 10 countries play in this qualification group. The top-6 countries will qualify for the World Cup 2024 directly – the country that finished in 7th place will still have a chance to qualify - by beating a team from another continent in the Promotion Final. Neither team qualified for the last World Cup in Qatar last year. Only four countries from South America qualified directly for Qatar. However, Chile were much better. However, I see Chile were much better than Paraguay in this qualification. Indeed, they finished in 7th place place with 19 points to their account. Their number of expected points (xPTS) was 22.02. They scored 19 goals and allowed 26 goals. Paraguay took only 16 points and their score difference was 12:26!I see Chile having a pretty good chance of qualifying this time! The visitors making it to the next World Cup would not be a shock but still a surprise. I have Paraguay in 8th place in my power rating in this group. This rating reflects the teams' pure class with the best possible starting eleven. The hosts have a clear edge over Paraguay especially in terms of offensive quality. Indeed, the visitors have scored only one goal in four games! Chile have scored three goals. Their defence has not fully impressed me though but they can improve significantly in this area of the game! Paraguay have conceded only one goal but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is clearly bigger. Chile, on the other hand, have been unlucky in terms of xGA.

The home advantage here is substantial – even bigger than in international games on average. Paraguay have lost five away games in a row. Moreover, they lost four of these five matches without scoring a goal. They are often too passive/defensive on the road – which usually leads to too much pressure on their defence – especially in the second half when fatigue becomes an issue. Chile, on the other hand, have been strong in front of their loyal and loud fans recently. Indeed, they have won four of their last five games at home! In their last game Chile were disappointing – no denying this. Venezuela recorded many more shots on goal – 6-1 in this game. Moreover, they generated 2.34 in expected goals (xG). Chile managed only 0.36! However, Venezuela played a stronger game than usual – Chile were far from their best. Yes, the hosts deserved to win but the match was much more balanced than the final score suggests. Chile had more shots on goal, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. They also had 54% ball possession. Both teams recorded 12 goal attempts. Venezuela defended extremely well in this game and Chile's offense lacked speed, creativity and passing accuracy at critical moments. I will not react to this result too heavily. The bookies, on the other hand, seem to be giving this match too much emphasis. Indeed, odds on Chile to send the visitors home empty-handed are around 1.88-1.93 on the betting market - at the time of writing this analysis Wednesday evening Beijing time at least. Based on my sophisticated expert analysis Chile have a 59% chance of winning! A great bet for us to try to increase the hot streak!

Before the defeat in Venezuela Chile easily beat Peru at home. They had 60% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (11-4), shots on goal (5-0), shots off target, total passes, completed passes and attacks (127-91). They also generated much more in expected goals (xG) than Peru 1.54-0.15 to be precise. Before this they played well despite not beating Colombia at home as pretty clear underdogs according to the bookies. They recorded many more goal attempts, shots on goal, corner kicks, total passes, completed passes and attacks. Paraguay beat a lowly team, Paraguay, at home in their last game. The 1-0 was a deserved one as Paraguay generated 1.03 in xG - the visitors managed only 0.16. Paraguay were priced around 1.30-1.35 to win and I would say that the performance was okay – but not great. Before this they had no real chance to take points in Argentina despite losing only 0-1. The hosts could easily have scored 2-3 goals. Paraguay generated only 0.08 in xG and recorded just one shot on goal and had only 11 dangerous attacks. This is a very small number in international football! In round 2 they performed at a decent level on the pitch but lost 0-1 in Venezuela. The teams last locked horns in March and Chile won 3-2 after an entertaining game. Chile also won both games between the two countries in 2021 – 1-0 in Paraguay and 2-0 at home. It is important to know that the visitors are unable to call on key player - winger Miguel Almiron - who recently picked up an injury. He is a very skilled guy and plays for Newcastle United in the English Premier League, the best league in the world! Newcastle even play in the UEFA Champions League this season. Missing Almiron hurts Paraguay's chances significantly here and I am not sure if the bookies fully realise this.. Lastly I want to mention that Chile are in the 37th place in the FIFA Ranking which is more or less correct in my expert opinion. The visitors occupy the 53rd place which is too high! 59-61st would be a more realistic place.

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智利VS巴拉圭

北京时间周五凌晨，在智利圣地亚哥纪念大卫阿雷利亚诺体育场，智利主场迎战巴拉圭，进行南美世界杯预选赛第5轮比赛。足球爱好者和我们这些着眼长远利益的严肃的投注者可以期待一场以国际标准来看相当平庸的比赛。然而，我们还有另一个很有希望的赌博机会。本届资格赛共有10个国家参赛。排名前六的国家将在晋级决赛中击败来自另一个大洲的球队，直接获得2024年世界杯的参赛资格——排名第七的国家仍有机会获得参赛资格。这两支球队都没有资格参加去年在卡塔尔举行的世界杯。只有4个南美国家直接获得了卡塔尔的参赛资格。然而，智利的表现要好得多。然而，我认为智利在这次资格赛中比巴拉圭要好得多。事实上，他们以19分排名第七。他们的期望点数(xPTS)为22.02。他们进了19球，丢了26球。巴拉圭只拿了16分，他们的分差是12:26!我认为智利这次出线的机会很大!客队进入下一届世界杯并不令人震惊，但仍然是一个惊喜。我有巴拉圭在第8位在我的权力评级在这个组。这个排名反映了球队的纯粹等级，有最好的首发11人。东道主对巴拉圭有明显的优势，特别是在进攻质量方面。事实上，客队在四场比赛中只进了一个球!智利队进了三个球。他们的防守并没有给我留下深刻的印象，但是他们在这方面有很大的进步!巴拉圭只丢了一个球，但他们的预期失球数(xGA)显然更大。另一方面，智利在xGA方面运气不佳。

这里的主场优势是巨大的，甚至比国际比赛的平均优势还要大。巴拉圭已经连续输掉了5场客场比赛。此外，他们在这五场比赛中输了四场，一球未进。他们在客场常常过于被动或防守，这通常会给他们的防守带来太大的压力，尤其是在下半场，当疲劳成为一个问题时。另一方面，智利队最近在他们忠诚而响亮的球迷面前表现得很强势。事实上，他们最近5场比赛在主场赢了4场!在上一场比赛中，智利队的表现令人失望——这是不可否认的。委内瑞拉在这场比赛中以6比1的比分射门次数更多。此外，他们还产生了2.34个预期目标(xG)。智利只拿到0.36分!然而，委内瑞拉踢得比平时更强——智利远没有达到最佳状态。是的，东道主应该获胜，但比赛比最终比分显示的要平衡得多。智利队的射门次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数都更多。他们还有54%的控球率。两队都有12次射门。委内瑞拉在这场比赛中的防守非常出色，而智利队的进攻在关键时刻缺乏速度、创造力和传球准确性。我不会对这个结果有太大的反应。另一方面，博彩公司似乎对这场比赛过于重视了。事实上，至少在北京时间周三晚上写这篇分析时，博彩市场上智利让客队空手而归的赔率约为1.88:1.93。根据我老练的专家分析，智利有59%的获胜机会!一个伟大的赌注，我们试图增加连胜!

在输给委内瑞拉之前，智利在主场轻松击败了秘鲁。他们有60%的控球率，并且有更多的射门次数(11-4)、射正(5-0)、射偏、总传球次数、完成传球次数和进攻次数(127-91)。他们的预期目标(xG)也比秘鲁的1.54-0.15要高得多。在此之前，他们打得很好，尽管没有在主场击败哥伦比亚队，根据博彩公司的说法，他们显然处于劣势。他们记录了更多的射门次数、射门次数、角球次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数和进攻次数。巴拉圭队在上一场比赛中主场击败了实力不强的巴拉圭队。1-0的比分是应得的，巴拉圭在世界杯上创造了1.03个进球，而客队只创造了0.16个进球。巴拉圭的胜率在1.30-1.35左右，我想说他们的表现还可以，但不是很好。在此之前，他们没有真正的机会在阿根廷取得积分，尽管他们只输了0-1。东道主本可以轻松地进2-3个球。巴拉圭的总得分仅为0.08，射门1次，危险进攻11次。这在国际足坛是一个非常小的数字!在第二轮比赛中，他们在球场上表现得不错，但却以0比1输给了委内瑞拉

。两队上一次交锋是在3月份，智利在一场有趣的比赛后以3比2获胜。智利也在2021年赢得了两国之间的两场比赛——1-0巴拉圭和2-0主场。重要的是要知道客队的关键球员——边锋米格尔·阿尔米隆——最近刚刚受伤。他是一个非常有技术的球员，在世界上最好的联赛——英超联赛中为纽卡斯尔联队效力!纽卡斯尔本赛季甚至还参加了欧洲冠军联赛。阿尔米隆的缺席严重影响了巴拉圭在这里的机会，我不确定博彩公司是否完全意识到这一点。最后我想提一下，智利在国际足联排名中排名第37位，这在我的专业意见中或多或少是正确的。游客排在第53位，太高了!59-61号是比较现实的地方。