PAOK Saloniki VS Panaitolikos Agrinio

PAOK welcome Panetolikos for this Greek Super League round 11 battle at Toumba Stadium in Thessaloniki late Sunday evening Beijing time. This league is pretty good by European standards. Football fans and us serious bettors – with a long-term profit in mind – can expect a match of somewhat average level by this league standards here.The hosts will most probably control the events on the pitch for the most of the 90 minutes. Panetolikos, on the other hand, are expected to be very defensive and would probably be happy with a point. They will probably mainly rely on fast counter attacks. Corner kicks, free kicks – or possible penalty kick to score here. I see this match as more low-scoring than the bookies do. Indeed, the probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 48%. We do not even need the visitors to score here as we will take them with the +2.5 goals handicap. Their defence has, in fact, been rather solid this season – at least better than the bookies expected. They have conceded 18 goals but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is "only" 15.23. PAOK's defense is of course much better but they can be vulnerable in fast counter attacks. They have conceded nine goals and their xGA is 10.95. Their offense, on the other hand, has not been on fire this season – they have netted the ball 19 times in this league. Panathinaikos, the current leaders, have scored 31 goals! Panetolikos's offense is lame but still better than the number of goals scored – six – would suggest. PAOK are, of course, big favourites here but the current odds of around 1.20 are still too low. I see them having a 74% chance of taking all three points.

PAOK faced Aberdeen in their last game and it was a disappointing draw as massive favourites – priced around 1.30 to win by the bookies.Yes, they were the better team but did not meet the expectations. This game was played on Thursday so they have had just two full days to recover and prepare. This is far from ideal in professional football! Before this they upset Olympiacos away from home but the final score flatters PAOK. The hosts had more shots on goal as well as goal attempts. The visitors have won and lost twice in their last four games. In their last game they lost to Asteras as slim underdogs at home. However, they recorded many more goal attempts (15-4) as well as attacks and dangerous attacks. Moreover, they generated 1.45 in xG – the visitors managed only 0.39. Panetolikos should have won the game.

萨洛尼卡VS阿格里尼奥

北京时间周日晚，PAOK在塞萨洛尼基的通巴球场迎来了希腊超级联赛第11轮的帕内托利科斯。按照欧洲的标准，这个联赛是相当不错的。足球迷和我们这些认真的投注者——考虑到长期利润——可以期待一场以联赛标准衡量的中等水平的比赛。东道主很可能在90分钟的大部分时间里控制着球场上的局势。另一方面，帕内托利科斯被认为是非常防守的，可能会很高兴得到一分。他们可能主要依靠快速反击。角球，任意球，或者可能的点球来得分。我认为这场比赛比博彩公司认为的更低。事实上，总进球数少于2.5个的概率是48%。我们甚至不需要客队在这里进球，因为我们将以+2.5的进球障碍击败他们。事实上，他们本赛季的防守相当稳固——至少比博彩公司预期的要好。他们丢了18个球，但他们的预期失球数(xGA)“只有”15.23个。巴控军的防守当然要好得多，但他们在快速反击中可能很脆弱。他们丢了9个球，xGA是10.95。另一方面，他们的进攻本赛季并没有火起来——他们在联赛中只有19次进球。目前的领头羊帕纳辛纳科斯已经进了31个球!帕内托利科斯的进攻是蹩脚的，但仍然比进球数(6球)所暗示的要好。当然，PAOK是这里的大热门，但目前1.20左右的赔率仍然太低。我认为他们有74%的机会拿到全部三分。

PAOK在他们的上一场比赛中面对阿伯丁，这是一个令人失望的平局，作为一个大热门，博彩公司的价格在1.30左右。是的，他们是一支更好的球队，但没有达到人们的期望。这场比赛是在周四进行的，所以他们只有整整两天的时间来恢复和准备。这在职业足球中远非理想!在此之前，他们在客场击败了奥林匹亚科斯，但最后的比分对PAOK有利。东道主的射门次数和尝试次数都更多。客队在最近四场比赛中两胜两负。在上一场比赛中，他们在主场以微弱劣势输给了阿斯特拉斯。然而，他们的进球次数更多(15-4)，进攻和危险进攻也更多。此外，他们在xG中产生了1.45，而访客只产生了0.39。Panetolikos本应该赢得这场比赛。