Young Boys VS Manchester City

Young Boys welcome Manchester City for this UEFA Champions League Group G round 3 battle at Stadion Wankdorf early Thursday morning Beijing time. A total of six rounds will be played. The stakes are high as all teams still have a genuine chance of making it to the top-2 - consequently qualifying for the Playoffs. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors cannot expect a particularly high-level game here by the Champions League standards. The match is played on artificial turf, and this definitely favours Young Boys. Even so, there is, of course, a big difference in class between these two teams. As I have written many times before – Manchester City are the best team on the planet. However, they are still very often overrated on the betting market. There is long-term data to suggest that betting on the visitors as heavy favourites – with the -1.5 goals handicap – not to mention -2.5 or bigger is a very bad idea in the long run. This is the case here as well. Odds on Manchester City to take all three points are below 1.20 on the betting market and this is too low. Yes, of course, Manchester City deserve to be heavy favourites, but I would say that they have a 75% chance of winning. Young Boys are not a bad team at all, and this is not the first – or probably the last time – that the Swiss Champions are undervalued by the bookies! They have amazing fans and the home advantage here is big! The biggest bookmakers who accept the biggest bets from customers offer the Young Boys +2.5 goals handicap bet odds of around 1.55-1.58 at the time of writing this analysis early Wednesday morning Beijing time. However, I would not be at all surprised if the odds on the hosts were to drop before the kick off as smart money is expected to pile up on Young Boys. The chance of my fans and me winning the 6th pick in a row is 72%! I will post a pick on many other Champions League games soon. I want to highlight that they have not lost any of their last 29 games by a margin of more than two goals. Man City, on the other hand, have won just one of their most recent 11 matches by at least the goals margin.

Man City are currently in second place in the English Premier League standings, two points behind Tottenham and just two points more than Aston Villa to their account. Their season has been a slight disappointment, but they have also suffered from quite a few injuries lately. Now the situation in this regard is better but they are still missing their most important - and best players in the world - Belgian midfielder Kevin de Bruyne. This has hurt and will hurt Man City’s chances more than the betting market seems to believe. Without Kevin they create much less in expected goals (xG). Kevin passing the ball to Haaland, the Norwegian “monster”, has been one of City’s best ways of scoring. City have lost three of their last five games and were not very impressive in their last game. It was a 2-1 home win over Brighton as huge favourites – priced below 1.40 to win by the bookies. Man City had 55% ball possession and recorded more goal attempts and shots on target but generated only marginally more in xG – 0.87-0.86 to be precise. Before this they were pretty lame away from home against Arsenal – especially offensively. They recorded just one shot on goal and Arsenal recorded many more goal attempts 12-4 and dangerous attacks – 61-29. In the second round of Champions League, they were strong in Germany – beating surprisingly passive and overall poor Leipzig 3-1. However, before this they lost to Wolves 1-2 at home as big favourites – priced around 1.40 to win. Man City recorded only a little more than Wolves in xG – 0.69-0.52. Young Boys have started the Swiss Super League well, losing just one of the 10 games and they have a good goal difference of 20:9. They have not lost any of their last four games but of course the opponents have been much weaker than Man City. Even so, Young Boys have looked confident on the pitch lately. In their most recent game, they had to settle for a draw at home against Zurich, a very dangerous opponent. They had 60% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts – 15-8. They would have deserved a narrow win. Before this they crushed Basel at home 3-0. I expect Young Boys to be very defensive here – their fans will probably understand and accept this. They would probably be happy with a point. A draw would not be a huge disappointment to Man City either as they have won both games in this group. The goal expectancy here is lower than the bookies estimate. In my expert opinion the probability of under 3.5 to be scored is 67%. Man City have one of the biggest games this season coming up on Sunday against Manchester United and their legendary manager is expected to do some squad rotation here. If they manage to take a 2-0 or say 3-1 lead, I do not believe they want to waste a lot of energy or risk injuries in an attempt to go for more goals. In fact, Man City very seldom win away games by a big margin..

少年队VS曼城

北京时间周四凌晨，欧冠小组赛G组第3轮的比赛将在旺克多夫球场打响。比赛共进行6轮。赌注很高，因为所有球队仍然有真正的机会进入前二，从而有资格进入季后赛。足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者，不能指望以欧冠的标准来看一场特别高水平的比赛。比赛在人造草皮上进行，这对年轻的男孩们无疑是有利的。即便如此，当然，这两支球队在阶级上还是有很大的不同。正如我之前写过很多次的，曼城是这个星球上最好的球队。然而，在博彩市场上，它们仍然经常被高估。长期数据表明，从长远来看，把客队押注为大热门是一个非常糟糕的主意，更何况客队的进球率为-1.5，更不用说胜率为-2.5或更大。这也是这里的情况。在博彩市场上，曼城拿到全部三分的赔率低于1.20，这太低了。是的，当然，曼城应该是大热门，但我想说他们有75%的获胜机会。年轻的小伙子们根本不是一支糟糕的球队，这不是第一次——也可能是最后一次——瑞士冠军被博彩公司低估了!他们有很棒的球迷，主场优势很大!在北京时间周三凌晨撰写本文时，接受客户最大投注的最大博彩公司提供的Young Boys +2.5球障碍投注赔率约为1.55-1.58。然而，如果东道主的赔率在开球前下降，我一点也不会感到惊讶，因为聪明的钱预计会堆积在年轻男孩身上。我和我的粉丝连续赢得第6个选秀权的机会是72%!我将在不久的将来发布一篇关于其他欧冠比赛的文章。我想强调的是，他们在过去的29场比赛中没有输过超过两个球的比赛。另一方面，曼城在最近的11场比赛中只赢了一场进球以上的比赛。

曼城目前在英超积分榜上排名第二，落后热刺两分，只比阿斯顿维拉多两分。他们这个赛季有点令人失望，但他们最近也受到了不少伤病的困扰。现在在这方面的情况有所好转，但他们仍然缺少他们最重要的，也是世界上最好的球员——比利时中场凯文·德布鲁因。这对曼城的机会造成的伤害比博彩市场所认为的要大得多。没有凯文，他们创造的预期进球要少得多(xG)。凯文将球传给挪威“怪物”哈兰德，这是曼城最好的进球方式之一。曼城在最近的五场比赛中输掉了三场，在上一场比赛中表现不佳。主场2-1战胜布莱顿是大热门，博彩公司开出的赔率低于1.40。曼城有55%的控球率，他们的进球次数和射正次数都比曼城多，但在xG(0.87-0.86)比赛中，他们的进球次数和射正次数只比曼城多一点点。在此之前，他们在客场对阵阿森纳的比赛中表现很差，尤其是在进攻端。他们只有一次射门，而阿森纳的进球次数更多，12比4，还有61比29的危险进攻。在欧洲冠军联赛第二轮，他们在德国表现强劲，以3-1击败了令人惊讶的被动和整体表现不佳的莱比锡。然而，在此之前，他们在主场以1比2输给了狼队，被认为是最大的热门——胜率约为1.40。曼城在xG - 0.69-0.52的比分上只比狼多一点点。年轻男孩在瑞士超级联赛开局不错，10场比赛中只输了一场，他们的净胜球是20:9。他们在过去的四场比赛中没有输过一场，但对手当然比曼城弱得多。尽管如此，年轻的男孩们最近在球场上看起来很自信。在最近的一场比赛中，他们不得不在主场面对苏黎世，一个非常危险的对手。他们有60%的控球率，并且有更多的进球次数——15胜8负。他们本应以微弱优势取胜。在此之前，他们在主场3-0击败了巴塞尔。我希望年轻的男孩在这里是非常防御性的-他们的球迷可能会理解和接受这一点。他们可能会很高兴得到一个点。一场平局对曼城来说也不会是一个巨大的失望，因为他们在小组赛中赢得了两场比赛。这里的预期进球比博彩公司估计的要低。在我看来，得分低于3.5分的概率是67%。周日，曼城将迎来本赛季最重要的比赛之一，对手是曼联和他们的传奇