In my opinion Porto have bigger chances to win this game than bookies wants to suggest for us in their odds.

In overall Porto is stronger team than Antwerp and they have much bigger experience on this stage, that should really make huge difference at the end of the day.

Porto is in solid form as they won 6 of 8 league matches and conceded only 6 goals in the process. They lost only against strong Benfica on away. Porto is well balanced team as they are rock solid at the back, but they have dangerous players in attack. In first away match in this group Porto won against Szachtar and that was fully deserved win: expected goals scored for Porto 1.84, for Shakhtar 0.48. In second match Porto lost 0:1 at home against Barcelona, but still that wasn’t bad performance: expected goals score for Porto 0.69, for Barcelona 1.28. Porto line up today should look exactly the same line in that game against team from Spain. Guests played last match 5 days ago.

On the other hand Antwerp played last match 4 days ago, so for sure freshness is not on their side. In addition to that their form in league is not convincing at all – they failed to win in 7 of 11 league matches. In this group they lost both matches so far and conceded 8 goals in the process. With such unstable defensive formation for me is very hard to see big chances for them against rock-solid Porto. 4 days ago Antwerp lost on away in league against Charleroi and had 2.72 expected goals conceded in that game. 20 days ago they lost at home against Shakhtar. In comparison to that game, today they are without key central midfielder Keita. It’s huge blow and should have very bad impact on their performance today.

On those circumstances I see really good value on away side.

在我看来，波尔图赢得这场比赛的机会比博彩公司给我们的赔率要大。

总的来说，波尔图是一支比安特卫普更强大的球队，他们在这个舞台上有更多的经验，这应该会在一天结束时产生巨大的不同。

波尔图在8场联赛中赢了6场，只丢了6个球。他们只在客场输给了强大的本菲卡。波尔图是一支很平衡的球队，他们在后防线上坚如磐石，但他们在进攻端也有一些危险的球员。在小组赛的第一场客场比赛中，波尔图战胜了萨赫特，这是一场完全应得的胜利:波尔图的预期进球数为1.84，矿工为0.48。在第二场比赛中，波尔图主场0:1输给了巴塞罗那，但这仍然不是糟糕的表现:波尔图的预期进球数为0.69，巴塞罗那为1.28。波尔图今天的阵容应该和那场对西班牙队的比赛一模一样。客人在5天前打了最后一场比赛。

另一方面，安特卫普的上一场比赛是在4天前进行的，所以可以肯定的是，新鲜感并不在他们这边。除此之外，他们在联赛中的状态一点也不令人信服——他们在11场联赛中有7场没有获胜。在这个小组中，他们目前输掉了两场比赛，在这个过程中丢了8个球。在这种不稳定的防守阵型下，我很难看到他们在对阵坚如磐石的波尔图的比赛中有很大的机会。20天前，他们在主场输给矿工队。与那场比赛相比，今天他们缺少了核心中场凯塔。这是一个巨大的打击，应该会对他们今天的表现产生非常糟糕的影响。

在这种情况下，我看到了客场的价值。