Ireland vs Greece

Ireland welcome Greece for this EURO Qualification Group B round 7 battle at Aviva Stadium in Dublin early Saturday morning Beijing time. However, in reality both team have played five games so far. Football fans and us serious football bettors can expect a match of mediocre level here by international standards. Ireland currently occupy the 4th place in the standings with there more games left to play. They have just three points to their account. They took these points at home in June when they beat Gibraltar at home 3-0. Gibraltar are a very poor team and Greece were massive favourites in this game according to the bookies – priced around 1.05 to take all three points. This win does not excite me too much. Ireland’s chances of qualifying for the EURO 2024 in Germany next summer are almost non-existent. Indeed, the top-2 teams qualify. Netherlands, Iin second place, have taken nine points. France top the group with 15 points in their pocket and will almost certainly win the group. Greece, on the other hand, are in 3rd place and still have a genuine chance of qualifying as they have taken nine points so far. Indeed, there is a big edge in terms of motivation here and it seems that the betting market has not given this factor emphasis to this factor. I’m, however, of course not implying that the hosts would be demotivated – just letting Greece win easily here - but some squad rotation would not be a surprise at all. Ireland do have some young, relatively talented players who are eager to prove their skills. The biggest bookmakers who accept the biggest bets from customers see Ireland as favourites here offering them odds of around 2.60 to take all three points. Based on my strongly data-based expert analysis this is incorrect. Greece deserve to be the favourites in this game with a low goal expectancy. We will go for the Greece +0.5 goals handicap to increase the hot winning streak of six picks! The probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 70%. Ireland are a lame team offensively - they lack individual skill and creativity in offense. Their defence is decent though and they have allowed seven goals. Greece have scored a respectable 10 goals but usually play pretty defensive football away from home but are great at counterattacking! Greece have allowed just five goals and do have an edge over Ireland also in this area of the game. The biggest difference between the two teams is in the offensive players' individual skill level.

The teams locked horns on the 16th of June in Greece. They fully deserved the 2-1 win. They had 54% ball possession and recorded more goal attempts (20-6), shots on target (6-3), shots off goal (7-2), corner kicks, attacks and dangerous attacks – 57-37. Greece also generated much more in expected goals – 1.78-1.18 to be precise. In their most recent game Ireland lost to Netherlands 1-2 at home but did not play poorly. However, Netherlands played below their normal level in this game. The visitors did record more in xG – 1.65-1.13. Before this Ireland did not have much of a chance against France away from home and lost 0-2. Greece crushed Gibraltar in their latest game 5-0 at home. Gibraltar failed to record any goal attempts at all in this match. Before this Greece suffered a 0-3 away from home against Netherlands but the final score is misleading. Yes, the host deserved the win but generated only 1.21 in xG. Greece were pretty lame offensively though and their xG was 0.34. The hosts were big favourites in this game – priced around 1.45 to win. Let’s also not forget that Greece are ranked better than Ireland in the FIFA ranking. Indeed, they are in the 51st place which is a little too low in my expert opinion. Ireland occupy the 55th place – this is too high. I would say that 58-60th would be a more realistic place. Lastly I want to mention that Greece have a better situation in terms of absentees. Notable defensive absentees have plagued Ireland ahead of this month’s fixtures as Liverpool’s number two goalkeeper Caoimhin Kelleher is out with a knee injury which required 12 stitches. John Egan, Enda Stevens and Aaron Connolly are also out.

爱尔兰vs希腊

北京时间周六凌晨，爱尔兰将在都柏林英杰华体育场迎接希腊队参加欧洲杯预选赛B组第7轮比赛。然而，实际上到目前为止，两支球队已经打了五场比赛。足球迷和我们这些认真的足球投注者可以期待一场以国际标准衡量的平庸水平的比赛。爱尔兰目前在积分榜上排名第四，还有更多的比赛要打。他们的账户上只有3分。今年6月，他们在主场以3-0击败直布罗陀，取得了这些积分。直布罗陀是一支非常糟糕的球队，而希腊是这场比赛的大热门，根据博彩公司的说法，他们的价格在1.05左右，可以拿到全部三分。这场胜利并没有让我太兴奋。爱尔兰参加明年夏天在德国举行的2024年欧洲杯的机会几乎为零。事实上，前两名的球队都能晋级。排名第二的荷兰队积9分。法国队以15分排名小组第一，几乎肯定会赢得小组头名。另一方面，希腊排在第三位，他们目前已经拿到9分，仍然有出线的机会。确实，在动机方面有很大的优势，似乎博彩市场并没有给予这个因素重视。然而，我当然不是在暗示东道主会失去动力——只是让希腊在这里轻松获胜——但是一些阵容轮换根本不会让人感到意外。爱尔兰确实有一些年轻的、相对有天赋的球员，他们渴望证明自己的技术。接受客户最大投注的最大博彩公司将爱尔兰视为最受欢迎的球队，提供约2.60的赔率来获得所有三分。根据我基于数据的专家分析，这是不正确的。希腊队理应成为这场比赛的大热门，他们的进球期望值很低。我们将为希腊+0.5个进球障碍，以增加六次选秀的热连胜!总进球数少于2.5个的概率为70%。爱尔兰在进攻端是一支蹩脚的球队——他们在进攻端缺乏个人技术和创造力。他们的防守还不错，他们丢了7个球。希腊已经进了10个球，但通常在客场踢得很防守，但反击很好!希腊只丢了5个球，在这方面也比爱尔兰有优势。两队最大的差别在于进攻队员的个人技术水平。

两支球队于6月16日在希腊发生争执。他们完全配得上2:1的胜利。他们有54%的控球率，进球次数(20-6)、射正(6-3)、射偏(7-2)、角球、进攻和危险进攻(57-37)更多。希腊的预期目标也要高得多——准确地说是1.78-1.18。在最近的一场比赛中，爱尔兰主场1-2负于荷兰队，但表现并不差。然而，荷兰队在这场比赛中的表现低于他们的正常水平。访问者在xG - 1.65-1.13的记录确实更多。在此之前，爱尔兰在客场对阵法国的比赛中并没有多少机会，最终以0-2输掉了比赛。在最近一场比赛中，希腊主场5比0大胜直布罗陀。直布罗陀在本场比赛中没有进球。在此之前，希腊在客场0-3负于荷兰队，但最终比分令人误解。是的，东道主应该获胜，但在xG中只产生了1.21。希腊在进攻端相当差劲，他们的xG是0.34。东道主是这场比赛的大热门，他们的胜率约为1.45英镑。我们也不要忘记，希腊在国际足联的排名比爱尔兰好。事实上，他们排在第51位，在我的专家看来，这有点太低了。爱尔兰排在第55位——这太高了。我想说58-60会是一个更现实的地方。最后我想提一下，希腊在缺勤率方面的情况要好一些。值得注意的是，在本月的比赛之前，后卫缺阵的情况一直困扰着爱尔兰，利物浦的二号门将凯莱赫因膝伤缺阵，缝了12针。约翰·伊根、恩达·史蒂文斯和亚伦·康诺利也将出局。