Bodo Glimt VS Club Brugge

Bodo/Glimt host Club Brugge for this UEFA Europa Conference League Group D round 2 battle at Aspmyra Stadion in Bodø very early Friday morning Beijing time. The hosts are a Norwegian team - the visitors come from Belgium. Both teams started the group phase playing a draw. Bodo/Glimt faced a Swiss team, Lugano, away from home and it was a goalless draw. The visitors were, rather surprisingly, clear favorites in this game according to the bookies – priced around 2.00 to take all three points. However, it was clear before, during and after the game that Bodo/Glimt were overvalued on the betting market. Indeed, both teams had 50% ball possession and Lugano recorded many more attacks (103-77) and dangerous attacks. They also generated more in expected goals (xG) – 1.12-0.73 to be precise. The visitors did record a few more goal attempts and shots on goal though. With this kind of performance, they are unlikely to beat Club Brugge - a team of very different caliber compared to Lugano. Club Brugge, on the other hand, faced one of the biggest teams in Turkey, Besiktas, at home. It was a 1-1 draw but the hosts would definitely have deserved a win! Indeed, they recorded a whopping 22 goal attempts - the visitors managed just six. Furthermore, Club Brugge also recorded many more shots on goal (9-3), shots of goal (6-1), corner kicks (12-0) as well as dangerous attacks – 69-30. Moreover, they recorded almost 4.00 in xG – Besiktas’s number was just 0.89.

Yes, the home advantage is substantial in international club competitions and here it is even slightly bigger than on average as the match is played on artificial turf. Even so, it seems the bookies give this factor too much emphasis – as well as undervalue the visitors. The biggest, sometimes rather smart bookies that offer the biggest stake limits see the hosts as favorites here – offering them odds of around 2.50 of sending the visitors home empty-handed. I must strongly disagree – the visitors deserve to be solid favorites with a 44% chance of winning. We will go for the +0.5 goals handicap option. Club Brugge has a clear edge in all areas of the game. Let’s not forget that they even played in the UEFA Champions League group phase last season taking many fine wins. They even beat a strong Portuguese team, Porto, away from home. In fact, they even qualified for the Playoffs but were beaten by Benfica, a very strong team. According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com , the visitors are very clearly the better team here. Their squad has an estimated market value of around 122 million euros. This number is more or less correct. The hosts’ players have a market value of around 37 million with is too low but the difference compared to the visitors is still massive. Both teams have been in good form not losing any of their last five games. The hosts were not quite at their best in their latest game though and played a 1-1 draw at home against St. Truiden as big favorites on the betting market,. Brugge would have deserved a win though as the generated 2.02 in xG – the visitors recorded only 0.54. I believe this result affects the odds too much here..

博多·格利姆特VS布鲁日俱乐部

北京时间周五凌晨，博多和格里姆特将在博多的阿斯迈拉体育场举行欧联杯小组赛D组第二轮比赛，主场迎战布鲁日俱乐部。东道主是挪威队，客队来自比利时。两队在小组赛一开始打成平局。博多/格里姆特在客场对阵瑞士球队卢加诺，双方0比0战平。令人惊讶的是，在这场比赛中，根据博彩公司的说法，客队显然是最受欢迎的球队，他们的价格约为2英镑，可以获得全部三分。然而，很明显，在比赛之前、期间和之后，Bodo/Glimt在博彩市场上被高估了。事实上，两支球队都有50%的控球率，卢加诺的进攻次数更多(103比77)，而且进攻很危险。他们也产生了更多的预期目标(xG)——准确地说是1.12-0.73。客队的进球次数和射门次数都有所增加。以这样的表现，他们不太可能击败布鲁日俱乐部——一支与卢加诺实力截然不同的球队。另一方面，布鲁日俱乐部在主场面对土耳其最大的球队之一贝西克塔斯。虽然平局是1比1，但东道主绝对应该赢得一场胜利!事实上，他们有22次进球尝试，而客队只有6次。此外，布鲁日俱乐部的射门次数(9胜3负)、射门次数(6胜1负)、角球次数(12胜0负)和危险进攻次数(69胜30负)也更多。此外，他们在xG的得分接近4.00，而贝西克塔斯的得分仅为0.89。

是的，主场优势在国际俱乐部比赛中是巨大的，而在这里，由于比赛是在人造草坪上进行的，主场优势甚至比平均水平还要大一些。即便如此，博彩公司似乎过于强调这一因素，同时低估了客队的价值。最大的，有时相当聪明的博彩公司提供最大的赌注限制，认为东道主在这里是最受欢迎的——他们提供了2.50左右的赔率，让游客空手而归。我必须强烈反对——客队应该是最受欢迎的，有44%的获胜机会。我们将选择+0.5个目标的障碍选项。布鲁日俱乐部在比赛的各个方面都有明显的优势。让我们不要忘记，他们上赛季甚至参加了欧冠小组赛，取得了许多精彩的胜利。他们甚至在客场击败了强大的葡萄牙球队波尔图。事实上，他们甚至有资格进入季后赛，但被一支非常强大的球队本菲卡击败。根据德国一家知名且受人尊敬的网站Transfermarkt.com，客队显然是这里更好的球队。据估计，这支球队的市值约为1.22亿欧元。这个数字多少是正确的。东道主球员的市场价值约为3700万美元，虽然太低，但与客队相比差距仍然很大。两支球队最近五场比赛都保持着良好的状态。然而，东道主在最近的比赛中并没有发挥出最佳状态，他们在主场1-1战平了圣特鲁登，成为博彩市场上的热门球队。布鲁日本应该赢得一场胜利，因为在xG比赛中，布鲁日的得分为2.02，而客队的得分只有0.54。我认为这个结果对这里的胜算影响太大了。