In my opinion Slovenia have really good chances to make 3 points in today’s match up.

They have big advantage of home crowd in Ljubljana. All tickets are sold out.

Slovenia looked much better so far in qualies as they made 7 points and have realistic chances to get qualification into Euro. This game is extremely important and players will give absolutely everything to win this game. Slovenia scored 5 goals and conceded 4 in 4 matches so far, but according to the expected goals scored/conceded models they should score 6 and concede 3. On the other hand Northern Ireland looked horrible in last 3 matches as they lost three times in a row and even failed to score.

Slovenia also have much more quality players in squad, they have two superb players at both ends of the pitch – goalkeeper Oblak and extremely promising striker Sesko (he already scored two goals in current Bundesliga season). Northern Ireland have huge squad problems before this game, they coming here without many key players like Bradley, Lewis, Lavery, Dallas or Evans. That should have very bad impact on their performance today.

On those circumstances I see really strong value on home side.

在我看来，斯洛文尼亚在今天的比赛中有很好的机会得到3分。

他们在卢布尔雅那有很大的主场优势。所有的票都卖完了。

到目前为止，斯洛文尼亚在预选赛中表现要好得多，他们得到了7分，很有可能进入欧锦赛。这场比赛非常重要，球员们会尽一切努力赢得这场比赛。到目前为止，斯洛文尼亚在4场比赛中进了5球丢了4球，但根据预期的进球数/失球数模型，他们应该进6球丢3球。另一方面，北爱尔兰在最近三场比赛中看起来很糟糕，他们连输三场，甚至没有进球。

斯洛文尼亚也有更多的优秀球员，他们在球场的两端都有两名出色的球员——门将奥布拉克和非常有前途的前锋塞斯科(他已经在本赛季的德甲联赛中打进两球)。在这场比赛之前，北爱尔兰的阵容问题很大，他们没有布拉德利、刘易斯、拉弗里、达拉斯和埃文斯这样的关键球员。这将对他们今天的表现产生非常糟糕的影响。

在这种情况下，我认为主队非常有价值。