Netherlands VS Greece

Netherlands welcome Greece for this EURO 2024 qualification Group B round 5 clash at Philips Stadion in Eindhoven early Friday morning Beijing time. However, in reality Greece have played three games and the Netherlands only two games in this group. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of pretty high level here but there is still a significant difference between these two teams in terms of pure class. Indeed, I expect the hosts to have 65-70% ball possession and control the events on the pitch for the most of the 90 minutes. Greece will most probably have to defend very hard and mainly rely on fast counter attacks to score – these are something they are actually pretty good at. The Dutch should be careful not to attack too aggressively.. Perhaps a corner kick, free kick or a penalty might bring them a goal but I believe that in this scenario the hosts can score at least twice as Greece's defence is vulnerable despite having a decent structure. Let’s not forget that the hosts are in 7th place in the FIFA ranking and according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, their squad has a total estimated market value of around 660 million euros. Greece, on the other hand, are in 50th place in this ranking but in my expert opinion even this is a bit too high. The Greek squad is valued at approximately 133 million. This is clearly too high. At least four players are over-valued. I would say that 90-93 million would be a more realistic number. Greece cannot match the hosts in any area of the game!

The stakes are high as three teams fight for the second place in this group. France will most probably win the group as they already have 12 points in their pocket and are a top-3 country in the world. Greece have a total of six points to their account. However, we should not be fooled by the two wins they have taken. In round 1 they defeated a very poor country, Gibraltar, 3-0 away from home. Yes, they were the much better team but I give this win very little emphasis. The Netherlands, on the other hand, beat Gibraltar 3-0 in this group after recording an almost unbelievable 49 goal (!) attempts - Gibraltar had none. The Dutch generated 5.78 in expected goals (xG) and should have won at least 5-0! In their second qualifying game Greece beat Ireland 2-1 but this match was pretty balanced as a whole despite Greece being clear favorites in this game – priced around 2.10 to win by the bookies. The ball possession was 52%-48% and Greece recorded just one more attack – 86-85. They did record many more goal attempts than Ireland but many of these had a very low goal expectancy. Indeed, the Greek generated only marginally more in (xG) 1.43-1.38. In their 3rd game in this group, they lost only 0-1 in France but the French dominated the game and could easily have taken a clearer win. They recorded many more goal attempts (19-6), total passes, completed passes, attacks and especially dangerous attacks – 80-26. There is no denying the fact that the Dutch have not been in their best form after the World Cup 2022.However, we should not react too much to a few disappointing performances. In the World Cup they forced the eventual champions, Argentina, to penalties. During the 90+30 minutes they had 52% ball possession and recorded more total passes, completed passes, attacks (129-88) and dangerous attacks – 36-21. They could easily have won this memorable game! Greece, on the other hand, have not even made it to the latest two World Cups – are even European Championships.

The Netherlands started the qualification by losing 0-4 in France. Yes, France deserved to win but the final score is very misleading and probably affects the odds here as well.. Indeed, the Dutch had 55% ball possession and recorded more total passes, completed passes, attacks (108-62) and dangerous attacks. France did record one more goal attempt though but only recorded marginally more in xG - 1.75 - 1.72 Losing to a strong team - as heavy underdogs is - as such, nothing to be ashamed of and does not really worry me ahead of this game. The Dutch people passionately love their team and the home advantage here is substantial – even bigger than in international games on average. Greece are usually pretty lame away from home – against mediocre – not to mention the top-teams. Thye often lack confidence and are too passive/defensive outside Greece. In their most recent match the Netherlands were somewhat unlucky to lose to Italy, a very dangerous team, of course. The Dutch had 57% ball possession and recorded more goal attempts (19-12), shots on goal (6-3) total passes, completed passes, attacks (71-58) and especially dangerous attacks – 71-20. Yes, the Netherlands will be without the injured Memphis Depay (hamstring), Steven Bergwijn (knee), Jurrien Timber (ACL), Sven Botman (ankle), Justin Bijlow (broken wrist), Tyrell Malacia (muscle) and Brian Brobbey (unspecified) but the betting market seems to have overreacted to these absentees.. The hosts’ manager, the legendary R. Koeman, could stick with a back four that would most probably include center-back duo van Dijk and Geertruida, with Dumfries and Ake operating as full-backs. As for Greece, West Ham United defender Mavrapanos is suspended after being sent off in the previous game against France which hurts them a lot! Their captain Tasos Bakasetas has scored seven goals and provided three assists in his latest 12 matches for Greece and the playmaker is a player to watch closely here.. However, I trust the Dutch defense to shackle him here. The hosts are very clear favorites and the odds of around 1.45 – widely available – are too high! The fans wanting to go for bigger odds can take the Netherlands -1.5 goals handicap option with a 50% chance of winning.

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荷兰VS希腊

北京时间周五凌晨，荷兰将在埃因霍温飞利浦球场迎来2024年欧洲杯预选赛B组第5轮对阵希腊的比赛。然而，实际上希腊在这个小组只踢了三场比赛，而荷兰只踢了两场。球迷和我们这些贪婪的赌徒可以期待一场高水平的比赛，但这两支球队在纯粹的级别上仍然有很大的不同。事实上，我预计东道主将有65-70%的控球率，并在90分钟的大部分时间里控制球场上的局势。希腊很可能不得不非常努力地防守，主要依靠快速反击来得分——这些实际上是他们很擅长的。荷兰人应该小心，不要进攻得太猛烈。也许一个角球、任意球或点球可能会给他们带来一个进球，但我相信在这种情况下，东道主至少可以进两球，因为希腊的防线虽然结构不错，但仍然很脆弱。让我们不要忘记，东道主在国际足联排名中排名第七，根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，他们的总市值估计在6.6亿欧元左右。另一方面，希腊在这个排名中排名第50位，但在我的专家看来，即使这个排名也有点太高了。希腊队的身价约为1.33亿欧元。这显然太高了。至少有四位球员被高估了。我认为9000万到9300万是更现实的数字。希腊在比赛的任何方面都无法与东道主匹敌!

由于有三支球队争夺小组第二的位置，这场比赛的赌注很高。法国队最有可能赢得小组冠军，因为他们已经拿到了12分，是世界排名前三的国家。希腊的账户上总共有6分。然而，我们不应该被他们取得的两场胜利所愚弄。在第一轮比赛中，他们客场3-0击败了一个非常贫穷的国家——直布罗陀。是的，他们是一支更好的球队，但是我很少强调这场胜利。另一方面，荷兰队在小组赛中以3比0击败直布罗陀队，他们在小组赛中取得了令人难以置信的49次进球(!)，而直布罗陀一球都没有。荷兰队的预期进球数为5.78，本应至少以5比0取胜!在他们的第二场预选赛中，希腊2-1击败了爱尔兰，但这场比赛总体上是相当平衡的，尽管希腊在这场比赛中是明显的热门——博彩公司的胜率在2.10左右。控球率是52%比48%，希腊只多了一次进攻，86比85。他们的进球次数确实比爱尔兰多，但其中很多人的进球预期都很低。实际上，希腊货币在1.43-1.38年期间仅略微多了一点。在小组赛的第三场比赛中，他们只以0比1输给了法国，但法国控制了比赛，很容易就能取得更明显的胜利。他们的进球次数(19胜6负)、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数，尤其是危险进攻次数——80胜26负。不可否认的事实是，荷兰队在2022年世界杯后并没有处于最佳状态。然而，我们不应该对一些令人失望的表现反应过度。在世界杯上，他们迫使最终的冠军阿根廷队进入点球大战。在90+30分钟内，他们有52%的控球率，记录了更多的总传球、完成传球、进攻(129-88)和危险进攻(36-21)。他们本可以轻松赢得这场难忘的比赛!另一方面，希腊甚至连最近两届世界杯都没进，甚至连欧洲杯都没进。

荷兰队在预选赛中以0-4不敌法国。是的，法国队应该获胜，但最终比分非常具有误导性，可能也影响了赔率。事实上，荷兰队有55%的控球率，并且记录了更多的总传球、完成传球、进攻(108胜62负)和危险进攻。法国队确实又进了一个球，但只比xG多了一点点——1.75比1.72输给了强队——就像严重的失败者一样——因此，没有什么可羞愧的，在这场比赛之前我并不真正担心。荷兰人热情地热爱他们的球队，在这里的主场优势是巨大的——甚至比国际比赛的平均优势还要大。希腊在客场的表现通常都很差劲——面对的是平庸的球队——更不用说顶级球队了。他们往往缺乏信心，在希腊之外过于被动/守势。在最近的比赛中，荷兰队有点不走运，输给了意大利队，当然，这是一支非常危险的球队。荷兰队的控球率为57%，进球次数(19-12)、射正次数(6-3)、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数(71-58)以及特别危险的进攻次数(71-20)也更多。

是的，荷兰队将没有受伤的孟菲斯·德佩(腿筋)，史蒂芬·伯格维恩(膝盖)，Jurrien Timber (ACL)，斯文·博特曼(脚踝)，贾斯汀·比伊洛(手腕骨折)，提利尔·马拉西亚(肌肉)和布莱恩·布罗比(未确定)，但博彩市场似乎对这些缺阵的球员反应过度了。东道主主教练，传奇人物科曼，可能会坚持使用四后卫，其中最有可能包括中后卫范迪克和格特鲁达，邓弗里斯和阿克担任边后卫。至于希腊，西汉姆联后卫马夫拉帕诺斯在上一场对阵法国的比赛中被罚下，这对他们造成了很大的伤害。他们的队长塔索斯·巴卡塞塔斯在最近为希腊出战的12场比赛中打入7球并送出3次助攻，这位组织者是值得密切关注的球员。不过，我相信荷兰的辩护律师会把他关在这里。东道主是非常明显的热门，大约1.45的赔率-广泛存在-太高了!想要获得更大赔率的球迷可以选择荷兰队-1.5个进球障碍选项，有50%的获胜机会。