UC Dublin VS Derry City

UC Dublin host Derry City for this Irish Premier Division round 26 battle at UCD Bowl in Dublin, the capital of Ireland early Thursday morning Beijing time. This league is of low level by European standards. Most young and talented Irish players leave Ireland at an early age to play abroad. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettor cannot expect a particularly entertaining game here. There is clear difference in class between the two teams – there is no denying that. The visitors will most probably control the events on the pitch for the most of the 90 minutes. The hosts will likely be forced to defend hard and mainly rely on fast counter attacks, corner kicks - or perhaps a possible penalty to score here. I see this match as a more low-scoring one than the bookies do. Based on my in-depth, strongly data-based analysis the probability of under 3.5 goals to be scored is 70%. Derry City currently occupy the 2nd place in the standings with 50 points to their account. This is also their place in my power rating that reflects the teams’ pure class. However, they are only marginally better than St. Patricks and Bohemians. The visitors’ score difference is 41:22. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) is 47.89. Their offense has not bene particularly convincing for a top-3 teams this season, it sometimes lacks speed and creativity. They have netted the ball 41 times in this league which is the same number that Dundalk – in 6th place - have scored this season.

Derry City’s defense, on the other hand, has bene solid and they have conceded 22 goals. However, their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 26.11. Even so, UC Dublin’s offense is so lame that it would not be a big surprise to see them failing to score here. Indeed, they have scored just 15 goals in this league this season but their number of xG is 20.01. Derry City have won just one of their latest eight games by a margin of three goals. Away from home they have last done this in March! Indeed, the UC Dublin +2.5 goals handicap is the obvious smart bet here with a 68% chance of winning. Derry City have not been particularly good form lately winning just two of their latest eight games during the 90 minutes of play. Sime of these games were UEFA Europa Conference League qualification matches though. They were very lucky to win their most recent game 3-1 away from against Dundalk. The hosts had 72% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (19-9), shots on goal, shots off goal (13-5), corner kicks, attacks and especially dangerous attacks – 71-24! UC Dublin are the worst team in this league – this is clear. They have just 10 points in their pocket. However, they are better than the standings suggest! Especially at home they fight hard and their number of xPTS is 16.36 and can still improve in all areas of the game. Some of their young players do have some talent. In their latest game they lost to Drogheda as massive underdogs away from home 0-3. The score is very misleading though as UC Dublin had 51% ball possession and also recorded more goal attempts, shots off goal, attacks and dangerous attacks.

都柏林大学VS德里城

北京时间周四凌晨，在爱尔兰首都都柏林举行的爱尔兰超级联赛第26轮比赛中，都柏林大学主场迎战德里城队。按照欧洲的标准，这个联赛的水平很低。大多数年轻有才华的爱尔兰球员在很小的时候就离开爱尔兰去国外踢球。足球迷和我们这些严肃的、追求利润的赌客，不能指望这里会有一场特别有趣的比赛。两支球队在级别上有明显的不同——这是不可否认的。客队很可能在90分钟的大部分时间里控制着球场上的局势。东道主很可能会被迫加强防守，主要依靠快速反击、角球——或者可能是点球来得分。我认为这场比赛比博彩公司认为的更少。根据我深入的、基于数据的分析，得分低于3.5球的概率是70%。德里城目前在积分榜上以50分排名第二。这也是他们在我的力量评级中的位置，反映了球队的纯粹等级。然而，他们只比圣帕特里克和波西米亚人好一点点。客队的比分差距是41:22。然而，他们的期望值(xPTS)是47.89。他们的进攻本赛季并没有让前三的球队信服，有时缺乏速度和创造力。他们在这个联赛中有41次进球，这与排名第六的邓多克本赛季的得分相同。

另一方面，德里城的防守很稳固，他们已经丢了22个球。然而，他们的预期进球数(xGA)是26.11。即便如此，加州大学都柏林分校的进攻太差劲了，看到他们在这里不能得分也不足为奇。事实上，他们本赛季在联赛中只进了15球，但他们的xG数是20.01。德里城在最近的八场比赛中只赢了一场，领先三球。他们上次在客场这样做是在三月份!事实上，加州大学都柏林分校+2.5个进球障碍显然是明智的赌注，有68%的获胜机会。德里城最近的状态不是特别好，在最近的8场比赛中，在90分钟的比赛中只赢了两场。这些比赛中有几场是欧联杯资格赛。他们非常幸运地在客场3-1战胜了邓多克。主队有72%的控球率，并且有更多的进球尝试(19胜9负)、射正、射偏(13胜5负)、角球、进攻，尤其是危险的进攻——71胜24负!加州大学都柏林分校是联盟中最差的球队，这是显而易见的。他们的口袋里只有10分。然而，他们比排名显示的要好!特别是在主场，他们打得很努力，他们的得分是16.36，在比赛的各个方面都还可以提高。他们的一些年轻球员确实有些天赋。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在客场0-3输给了德罗海达。这个数字很容易误导人，因为都柏林大学有51%的控球率，并且有更多的射门次数、射门次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数。