Slavia Prague vs Zorya Luhansk

Slavia Prague host Zorya Luhansk for this UEFA Europa League Qualification final round battle at Fortuna Arena early Friday morning Beijing time. The hosts are a Czech team and the visitors come from Ukraine. This is the second-highest of UEFA's club competitions. Neither team are among the very best clubs in Europe so I expect both teams to be highly motivated here.As a whole the Czech Fortuna Liga is of higher level than the Ukrainian Premier League.Yes, there are Shkahtar Donetsk and Dynamo Kiev that are big clubs with some great players but the level drops significantly behind these clubs in terms of pure class. The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine has also affected football in Ukraine. Zorya Luhansk are not a traditional - or big - club in Ukraine. They finished in 3rd place last season with a total of 64 points. However, they were lucky in several games.. Indeed, their number of expected points (xPTS) was 58.99. I expect their level to drop this season.. The home advantage in UEFA's competitions, between clubs from two different countries, is almost always substantial, even bigger than the bookies seem to realize.. This is true here as well! With the expected lineups – based on my sophisticated, strongly data-based analysis, the hosts have a 68% chance of winning by a margin of at least two goals. The biggest, sometimes somewhat sharp bookies with the biggest stake limits offer odds of around 1.60 on the Slavia -1.5 goals handicap option - at the time of writing this analysis early Thursday evening Beijing time. However, I would not be at all surprised the odds to drop before kickoff as smart money is expected to pile up on the host.

Slavia Prague are the significantly bigger club than Zorya in terms of players total market value according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com. Their squad has an estimated total market value of around 40 million euros. This is a little too low in my expert opinion though. I would say that 44-45 million is the accurate number. The Zorya Luhansk players, on the other hand, have a total market value of only 17 million which is still too high! I would set the number at around 13 million. Three of their players are overvalued! Slavia have played well in the Fortuna Lig so far winning all five games and must be high in confidence They have netted the ball nine times nut their number of expected goals (xG) is 11.98. Moreover, they have allowed just two goals. In their most recent game they totally dominated Ostrava recording 18 goal attempts. Furthermore, they had six shots on goal - Ostrava did not have any. Slavia also generated 2.67 in xG and would have deserved a clear victory. In the previous round of Europa League qualification they easily beat another team from Ukraine, Dnipro-1 4-1 on aggregate. They were the much better team in both games. At home they won 3-0 despite Ogbu being sent off in the 58th minute. Wallem even scored to make it 3-0 when Slavia were playing with 10 men. Dnipro-1 recorded just two shots on goal. I want to highlight that by pure class Zorya are a worse team than Dnipro-1! Zorya were disappointing in their most recent game and it was a goalless draw at home against Oleksandriya as favorites according to the bookies. Even so, Zorya failed to record any shots on goal!

斯拉维亚布拉格vs Zorya卢甘斯克

北京时间周五凌晨，布拉格斯拉维亚队主场迎战卢甘斯克队，参加欧联杯资格赛最后一轮的比赛。东道主是捷克队，客队来自乌克兰。这是欧足联俱乐部比赛中第二高的成绩。这两支球队都不是欧洲最好的俱乐部，所以我希望这两支球队在这里都有很高的动力。总的来说，捷克的幸运联赛比乌克兰的超级联赛水平要高。是的，顿涅茨克矿工队和基辅迪纳摩队都是拥有一些伟大球员的大俱乐部，但从纯粹的水平来看，他们明显落后于这些俱乐部。俄罗斯和乌克兰之间正在进行的战争也影响了乌克兰的足球。Zorya lugansk在乌克兰并不是一个传统的或者大的俱乐部。上赛季他们以64分排名第三。然而，他们在几场比赛中都很幸运。事实上，他们的期望值(xPTS)是58.99。我预计他们这个赛季的水平会下降。在欧足联的比赛中，来自两个不同国家的俱乐部之间的主场优势几乎总是巨大的，甚至比博彩公司似乎意识到的还要大。这里也是如此!根据我基于数据的复杂分析，根据预期的阵容，东道主有68%的机会以至少两个进球的优势获胜。在北京时间周四傍晚撰写这篇分析时，最大的、有时有些尖锐的博彩公司对斯拉维亚的赔率为1.60左右，赔率为1.5个进球障碍。然而，我一点也不会对开球前赔率下降感到惊讶，因为预计聪明的钱会堆积在东道主身上。

根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，在球员总市值方面，布拉格斯拉维亚比佐利亚大得多。据估计，这支球队的总市值约为4000万欧元。但在我看来，这有点太低了。我认为4400万到4500万是准确的数字。另一方面，Zorya Luhansk球员的总市值只有1700万，这仍然太高了!我估计这个数字在1300万左右。他们的三个球员被高估了!到目前为止，斯拉维亚在幸运联赛中表现出色，五场比赛全部获胜，他们的信心一定很高。他们打进了9球，预期进球数(xG)为11.98。此外，他们只丢了两个球。在最近的一场比赛中，他们完全控制了俄斯特拉发，有18次射门。此外，他们有6次射门，而俄斯特拉发没有。斯拉维亚在xG中也取得了2.67的成绩，她应该获得一场明显的胜利。在上一轮的欧联杯预选赛中，他们以总比分4:1轻松击败了另一支来自乌克兰的球队——第聂伯-1。他们在两场比赛中都表现得好得多。在主场，尽管奥格布在第58分钟被罚下，他们还是以3比0获胜。瓦勒姆甚至在斯拉维亚队只有10人的情况下进球将比分改写为3-0。Dnipro-1只记录了两次射门。我想强调的是，纯职业Zorya是一支比第聂伯-1更糟糕的球队!Zorya在最近的比赛中表现令人失望，根据博彩公司的说法，他们在主场0比0战平了aleksandriya。即便如此，佐利亚还是没有射门!