Amiens vs Bastia

Amiens welcome Bastia for this French Ligue 2 round 3 battle at Stade de la Licorne early Sunday morning Beijing time. This is the second-highest tier of French football and is of decent level by European standards. However, the difference between Ligue 1 and Ligue 2 is substantial. My fans and I  have yet another very lucrative betting opportunity here to increase the winning streak of 9/10-  at the time of writing this analysis early Saturday morning Beijing time. I have written an in-depth analysis on several other interesting games – in big leagues – and a free pick will be posted later today to thank my loyal fans! Football fans and us profit-hungry, serious football bettors can expect a game of pretty good level between these two teams! Neither of the two teams are, of course, among the top-3 teams in the Ligue 2 though. The goal expectancy here is lower than the bookies estimate as neither team's offense has fully convinced me - this is typical early season though as defending is easier than attacking.. The probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 62%.  Bastia performed very well last season and finished in 4th place with a fine 60 points to their account! However, the gap in terms of total points to the top-2 teams, Le Havre and Metz – was pretty big.. Offensively Bastia were very convincing last season and netted the ball 52 times in this league. For example, Le Havre, who grabbed 75 points, scored ”only” 46 goals. Bastia's number of expected goals (xG) was, in fact, even a little higher – 54.02 to be precise. However, defensively they were  simply not good enough to deserve a promotion to the Ligue 1. Indeed, their defensive structure was not solid enough and the defenders made too many - sometimes even pretty silly – individual mistakes.. Furthermore, the midfielders were often not active enough in defending. Sometimes Bastia also took too big offensive risks in an attempt to score. In my expert opinion, they should also press the opponent in a more organized way - and avoid being too aggressive which often results in fatigue – especially in the second half. However, I trust Bastia and their good coach to gradually improve defensively..  I want to mention that not that much has changed for Bastia for this season in terms of their pure class.. Bastia conceded 45 goals in the Ligue 1 last season but I want to highlight that Bastia's number of expected goals allowed (xGA) was ”only” 38.98..

Bastia have played well recently and have lost just one of their latest six games. They even beat a pretty big Italian team that play in the Serie A, Verona, 3-1 in a friendly game on the 29th of July. In their most recent match they easily defeated Valenciennes, a potentially dangerous team, 3-0 at home. They dominated the events on the pitch for the most of the 90 minutes despite rather weirdly having just 48% ball possession. However, the visitors could not do almost anything with the ball and the Bastia players clearly noticed this as the match progressed! Indeed, Valenciannes recorded just three shots on goal and one off goal. Bastia, on the other hand, recorded seven shots on target and six off target. Moreover, the hosts created 15 scoring chances. They also recorded more attacks and dangerous attacks. With this kind of performance Bastia have an excellent chance of taking at least a point here. The biggest, sometimes pretty smart bookies that accept the biggest bets from customers, see Amiens as the favorites here and offer them odds of around 2.50 to win. This is massively too low!  In my expert opinion Bastia deserve to be the favorites – not very clear though. The +0.5 goals handicap on the visitors is the obvious smart bet here for me growing a fan-base and me! In the opening round Bastia played far from their optimal level against Concarneau, a newly promoted team, away from home. Despite being only recently promoted to this level, this team are a pretty dangerous one and seem to be underrated by the betting market.. They played with amazing energy - clearly boosted by the fans - and the feeling of finally being able to challenge a pretty big team like Bastia! Even so, Bastia took a point through a goalless draw and proved that they have improved defensively - especially in terms of defensive structure - from last season. The hosts recorded three shots on goal – Bastia managed just one. 

Amiens, on the other hand, had a disappointing last season and endep up in the 12th place. They took a total of 47 points. However, their number of xPTS was even a bit lower. Yes, they can  - and taking a look at the list of players -  should improve but the betting market seems to give their potential too much emphasis! Let's not forget that they have lost for example centre-back Formose Mendy and centre-forward George Ilenikhena! Amiens scored 40 goals and allowed 52 in the Ligue 2 last season and were slightly lucky in terms of number of xG. In terms of xGA they were neither lucky nor unlucky. With the expected lineup Bastia have an edge in all areas of the game here! Yes, the home advantage is there, of course, but Amiens do not, in all honesty, have very good fans and were not very impressive at their stadium last season.. In the opening round they faced Quevilly Rouen and took a narrow 1-0 win at home. They were only marginally better in this game where they were favorites according to the bookies. The visitors recorded one more shot on goal – both teams managed just two shots on target. I was pretty disappointed with Amien's offense as they lacked speed and creativity near the opponents goal. Amiens did record more attacks and dangerous attacks but either team could easily have taken all three points. In their most recent game Amiens took a very lucky win away from home over a pretty strong team, Auxerre, 1-0. The hosts were the much better team on the pitch with 69% ball possession. Moreover, Auxerre recorded many more goal attempts - 15-7. They also had many more total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks – 90-56. This massively undeserved win as big underdogs probably affects the odds quite a lot here!

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亚眠对巴斯蒂亚

北京时间周日凌晨，亚眠人欢迎巴斯蒂亚参加法甲联赛第三轮在独角兽球场的比赛。这是法国足球的第二高级别联赛，以欧洲标准来看，这是一个不错的水平。然而，法甲和法甲之间的差异是巨大的。我的粉丝和我还有另一个非常有利可图的投注机会，可以增加9/10的连胜率——在北京时间周六早上写这篇分析的时候。我已经写了一篇关于其他几场有趣的比赛的深入分析——在大联盟里——并且今天晚些时候会发布一个免费选秀权来感谢我的忠实粉丝!足球迷和我们这些渴望利润的严肃的足球投注者可以期待这两支球队之间的一场相当好的比赛!当然，这两支球队都不是法甲前三的球队。这里的进球预期比博彩公司估计的要低，因为两支球队的进攻都没有完全让我信服——这是典型的赛季初期，尽管防守比进攻容易。总进球数少于2.5个的概率为62%。巴斯蒂亚上赛季表现非常好，以60分的成绩获得了第四名!然而，与前两名球队勒阿弗尔和梅斯的总积分差距相当大。在进攻端，巴斯蒂亚上赛季非常有说服力，他在联赛中有52次进球。例如，拿下75分的勒阿弗尔队“只”进了46球。事实上，巴斯蒂亚的预期进球数(xG)甚至更高，准确地说是54.02。然而，他们的防守还不足以晋级法甲。事实上，他们的防守结构不够稳固，防守队员犯了太多——有时甚至是非常愚蠢的——个人错误。此外，中场球员在防守中往往不够活跃。有时，巴斯蒂亚也会在进攻端冒太大的风险，试图得分。在我的专家看来，他们还应该以更有组织的方式压迫对手，避免过于激进，这通常会导致疲劳，尤其是在下半场。然而，我相信巴斯蒂亚和他们的好教练会逐渐提高防守。我想说的是，从纯粹的水平来看，巴斯蒂亚这个赛季并没有太大的变化。巴斯蒂亚上赛季在法甲丢了45个球，但我想强调的是，巴斯蒂亚的预期失球数(xGA)“只有”38.98。

巴斯蒂亚最近打得很好，最近六场比赛只输了一场。他们甚至在7月29日的一场友谊赛中以3-1击败了意甲的意大利强队维罗纳。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场以3比0轻松击败了一支潜在的危险球队瓦朗谢纳。尽管奇怪的是只有48%的控球率，但在90分钟的大部分时间里，他们在球场上占据了主导地位。然而，客队几乎不能用球做任何事情，随着比赛的进行，巴斯蒂亚球员清楚地注意到这一点!事实上，瓦伦西亚内斯只有3次射正，1次越位。另一方面，巴斯蒂亚记录了7次射正，6次射偏。此外，东道主创造了15次得分机会。他们还记录了更多的袭击和危险的袭击。以这样的表现，巴斯蒂亚很有可能至少得一分。最大的、有时相当聪明的博彩公司接受客户最大的赌注，他们认为亚伦是这里的热门球队，并为他们提供约2.50的赔率。这太低了!在我的专家看来，巴斯蒂亚应该是最受欢迎的——虽然不是很清楚。客队+0.5个进球的障碍对我和我自己来说显然是一个明智的选择!在首场比赛中，巴斯蒂亚队在客场对阵新升班马康纳诺队时的表现远未达到最佳水平。尽管最近才升到这个级别，但这支球队是一支相当危险的球队，似乎被博彩市场低估了。他们踢出了惊人的活力——显然是受到了球迷的鼓舞——他们终于有能力挑战像巴斯蒂亚这样的强队了!尽管如此，巴斯蒂亚还是在一场0比0的平局中拿到了一分，并证明了他们在防守方面的进步——尤其是在防守结构方面——与上赛季相比。主队三次射正球门，而巴斯蒂亚只射进了一次。

另一方面，亚眠上赛季表现令人失望，最终排在了第12位。他们一共得了47分。然而，他们的xpt数量甚至更少。是的，他们可以-看看球员名单-应该改善，但赌博

市场似乎过于强调他们的潜力!让我们不要忘记他们失去了中后卫福尔摩斯·门迪和中锋乔治·伊莱尼科纳!上赛季，亚眠在法甲联赛中打进40球，失52球，在球员数量上略显幸运。就xGA而言，他们既不幸运也不不幸。有了预期的阵容，巴斯蒂亚在比赛的各个领域都有优势!是的，主场优势当然存在，但说实话，亚眠并没有非常好的球迷，上赛季在他们的球场也没有给人留下深刻的印象。在首场比赛中，他们面对鲁昂，并在主场以1-0险胜。他们在这场比赛中只是稍微好一点，因为他们是博彩公司的最爱。客队又射正了一脚，两队都只射正了两脚。我对阿明的进攻很失望，因为他们在对手的球门附近缺乏速度和创造力。亚眠确实记录了更多的进攻和危险的进攻，但是任何一支球队都可以轻易地拿到三分。在他们最近的一场比赛中，亚眠非常幸运地在客场以1比0战胜了一支非常强大的球队欧塞尔。主队在场上的表现要好得多，控球率达到69%。此外，欧塞尔的进球次数更多，15胜7负。他们也有更多的总传球、完成传球、进攻和危险进攻——90比56。这场不值得的大赢家可能会影响到这里的赔率很多!