Wolves VS Brighton

Wolves welcome Brighton for this English Premier League round 2 clash at Molineux Stadium in Wolverhampton late Saturday evening Beijing time. This is clearly the best league on the planet but most importantly we have yet another very lucrative betting opportunity here to increase the winning streak of 9/10! Last week we won a pick in this league as well! Football fans and us profit-hungry, serious football bettors can expect a game of mediocre level between these two teams! Neither team are, of course, among the top-5 teams in the Premier League and the difference in pure class is substantial in Brighton's favor! The best teams are Manchester City - followed by Arsenal who fought hard for the championship last season despite fading away – and also running out of the good luck they had had in many games - in the last rounds of play.  Behind these two teams there are Manchester United, Liverpool and Newcastle. Chelsea, Tottenham, Aston Villa and Brighton can, however, challenge and perhaps even beat these teams depending on for example - but not limited to -  luck, injuries and possible new players.. These teams are probably much less worse by pure class than the three teams mentioned above! I also want to mention that the transfer window is still open and even important/expensive players come and go almost daily in the Premier League.. Brighton played a fine last season and finished as high as in 6th place last season – just five points behind a much bigger club, Liverpool! Brighton managed to grab a fine 62 points. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) was 70.98! A massive difference that probably explains Brighon quite possibly being undervalued in many early season games. With the 70-71 points they would have been very close making it to the top-4 and the UEFA Champions League! There is no reason to believe that they would not play another strong season! 

 Yes, Brighton have - once again – lost important players to bigger clubs. Indeed,  the fresh World champion Alexis Mac Allister left to play for Liverpool and Moisés Caicedo was recently bought by Chelsea..   However, Brighton have an amazing ability to buy relatively cheap but talented, often pretty young players and improve them in just 1-2 years and then sell them with a huge profit! Indeed, Chelsea paid over 100 million euros for Caicedo and also Liverpool wanted to buy him..  They also have an excellent manager, Italian Roberto De Zerbi, and they played incredibly beautiful and well-organized football under him last season. It was no easy task for De Zerbi as he joined the club midseason.   Based on my sophisticated, in-depth – strongly data based expert analysis they deserve to be very clear favorites here! With the expected lineups I see them having a 58% chance of taking all three points. The biggest bookies who accept the biggest bets from customers offer them odds of around 1.85-1.90 to win at the time of writing this analysis late Friday evening but I would not be surprised to see their odds going down before the kick off as smart money is expected to pile up on them. As mentioned before, they can expect yet another strong season from Brighton but there is no denying that without buying a new high-quality striker they can probably only dream of a top-4 position.. For example ex-Manchester United striker, Danny Welbeck, 32, can score goals but is not, in all honesty, even close to an elite striker at this level..

In the first round Brighton crushed Luton, a newly promoted and a very small team by this league's standards. Even so, it was a magnificent performance from Brighton! They dominated the events on the pitch for almost the whole 90 minutes cruising to a 4-1 win. They had 71% ball possession and recorded a whopping 27 goal attempts and many more shots on goal (12-3), shots of goal (15-6), total passes, completed passes as well as attacks (130-53) and dangerous attacks. Moreover, they generated an amazing 4.12 in expected goals (xG)! Luton managed just 0.97. Wolves, on the other hand, somehow managed to finish in 13th place last season. This is very hard to believe based on their performances on the pitch! Even so, many bettors as well as the bookies will probably give the last season's standings (too) much emphasis when betting on the first 1-5 rounds of the 2023-2024 season.. I want to highlight that their number of xPTS was just 33.98 and they should have been relegated! In fact, this was the lowest number in the Premier League! Well, they are at big risk to be relegated this season despite Luton and Sheffield United looking pretty limited at this point..

 Wolves lost many key players after last season and according to my sources the atmosphere within the team is far from great.. Indeed,  Ruben Neves, Nathan Collins, Conor Coady, Raul Jimenez, Joao Moutinho, Adama Traore and Diego Costa have all left Wolves. Moreover, their excellent coach Julen Lopetegui left just days before the start of the season! This will surely have a negative effect on Wolves as the new manager Gary O'Neil is not at the same level as Lopetegui in terms of tactical skills or as a leader. In my expert opinion O'Neil is an overrated manager. On a more positive note I want to mention Brazilian centre-forward, Matheus Cunha,24, who is back from a loan from Atletico Madrid and looked very sharp and energetic against Manchester United on Monday. He performed several long, dynamic runs with the ball and will surely score some goals later on.. Cunha is a player to follow closely for my fans this season. However, Brighton have a well-organized defense so Cunha probably will not net the ball today.. Against ManU Wolverhampton were better than I – or probably any professional football bettor – would have expected. However, ManU were far from their best level and were amazingly unorganized in the midfield and defense in this game. ManU manager Erik ten Hag's hilariously angry face reflected the events on the pitch well. He was not very satisfied with his team's performance even after the game.. 

ManU were priced slightly below 1.30 to win by the bookies at the time of kickoff and in my opinion the price was more or less correct but I was wrong this time and can admit that.  The hosts recorded only marginally more than Wolves in expected goals (xG) – 1.87-1.85 – to be precise. Furthermore, the visitors even recorded many more shots on and off goal as well as goal attempts – 23-15. Rather weirdly, Wolves were denied a penalty late into the match. It was a very questionable decision from the referee and was heavily criticized by the Wolves players, the football media and many experts commenting on the game on TV. The referee is expected to be punished for his decision in this game by the federation.. However, this big game was one of the few big matches on Monday  and the denied penalty got so much media attention that it seems to have a big effect on Wolves's odds here. against Brighton who after all, have a massive adge in all areas of the game – especially in terms of goal scoring potential.. We should not react too much to Wolves being ”better than okay” against a big team like ManU! They are still a limited team despite a few experienced quality players in the squad. The new manager surely needs time with the team to reach the optimal level with his men.. It is – in general – important to trust the preseason power rating early into the season and not make big adjustments based on one – or even 2-5 matches. This is clear to most professional football bettors – for the recreational bettors and bookies not so much.. We must take advantage of the too high odds here – and in the future!

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

狼队VS布莱顿

北京时间周六晚，狼队将在狼队汉普顿的莫利纽球场迎来与布莱顿的英超第二轮比赛。这显然是地球上最好的联赛，但最重要的是，我们还有一个非常有利可图的投注机会，可以增加9/10的连胜纪录!上周我们还在联赛中赢得了一个选秀权!足球迷和我们这些渴望利润的严肃的足球投注者可以期待这两支球队之间的一场平庸的比赛!当然，这两支球队都不是英超前五的球队，纯粹的等级差异对布莱顿有利!最好的球队是曼城，紧随其后的是阿森纳，尽管他们在上个赛季逐渐式微，但他们还是为冠军而努力奋斗，而且在最后几轮比赛中，他们也失去了很多比赛中的好运气。在这两支球队之后是曼联、利物浦和纽卡斯尔。然而，切尔西、热刺、阿斯顿维拉和布莱顿可以挑战甚至击败这些球队，这取决于(但不限于)运气、伤病和可能的新球员。这些球队可能比上面提到的三支球队要好得多!我还想提一下，转会窗口仍然是开放的，甚至重要/昂贵的球员在英超几乎每天都有进进出出。布莱顿上赛季踢得很好，上赛季排名第六，只落后大得多的俱乐部利物浦五分!布莱顿获得了62分。然而，他们的期望值(xPTS)是70.98!这一巨大的差异可能解释了布里根在许多赛季早期的比赛中被低估的原因。如果得到70-71分，他们将非常接近进入前四和欧洲冠军联赛!没有理由相信他们不会打出另一个强劲的赛季!

是的，布莱顿再一次失去了重要的球员去了更大的俱乐部。事实上，刚刚获得世界冠军的麦克阿利斯特去了利物浦，卡伊塞多最近也被切尔西买走了。然而，布莱顿有一种惊人的能力，可以买到相对便宜但有才华的球员，通常是漂亮的年轻球员，并在1-2年内提高他们，然后出售他们赚取巨额利润!事实上，切尔西为卡塞多支付了超过1亿欧元，利物浦也想买下他……他们还有一位出色的教练，意大利人罗伯托·德泽比，上赛季在他的带领下，他们踢出了令人难以置信的漂亮和有组织的足球。对于赛季中期加盟的德泽比来说，这不是一件容易的事。根据我的复杂，深入-强烈的数据为基础的专家分析，他们应该是非常明确的最爱在这里!根据预期的阵容，我认为他们有58%的机会拿到全部三分。在周五晚些时候撰写这篇分析时，接受客户最大赌注的最大博彩公司提供的赔率约为1.85-1.90，但如果他们的赔率在开球前下降，我不会感到惊讶，因为预计聪明的钱会堆积在他们身上。如前所述，他们可以期待布莱顿又一个强劲的赛季，但不可否认的是，如果不买一个新的高质量前锋，他们可能只能梦想进入前四。例如，32岁的前曼联前锋丹尼·维尔贝克(Danny Welbeck)可以进球，但老实说，他甚至无法接近这个级别的精英前锋。

在第一轮比赛中，布莱顿击败了卢顿，这是一支新升级队，按照联赛的标准，这是一支非常小的球队。尽管如此，布莱顿的表现还是很精彩的!在几乎整个90分钟的比赛中，他们在场上占据了主导地位，最终以4-1大胜。他们有71%的控球率，并且记录了惊人的27次进球尝试，更多的射门(12-3)，射门(15-6)，总传球，完成传球以及攻击(130-53)和危险攻击。此外，他们产生了惊人的4.12的预期进球(xG)!卢顿仅获得0.97分。另一方面，狼队上赛季以某种方式排在第13位。从他们在球场上的表现来看，这很难让人相信!即便如此，许多投注者和博彩公司在投注2023-2024赛季的前1-5轮时，可能会把上个赛季的排名(过于)强调。我想强调的是，他们的xPTS数只有33.98，他们应该降级!事实上，这是英超联赛中最低的数字!嗯，尽管卢顿和谢菲尔德联队在这一点上看起来相当有限，但他们本赛季有很大的降级风险。

上个赛季之后，狼队失去了很多关键球员

根据我的消息来源，球队内部的气氛远不是很好……事实上，鲁本·内维斯、内森·柯林斯、康纳·科迪、劳尔·希门尼斯、若昂·穆蒂尼奥、阿达玛·特拉奥雷和迭戈·科斯塔都离开了狼队。此外，他们优秀的教练洛佩特吉在赛季开始前几天就离开了!这肯定会对狼队产生负面影响，因为新主帅加里·奥尼尔在战术技巧和领导能力上都无法与洛佩特吉相提并论。在我看来，奥尼尔是个被高估的经理。在一个更积极的方面，我想提一下24岁的巴西中锋库尼亚，他从马德里竞技租借回来，在周一对阵曼联的比赛中表现得非常犀利和充满活力。他带球进行了几次长距离、有力的跑动，以后一定会进几个球的。库尼亚是我的球迷本赛季应该密切关注的球员。然而，布莱顿有一个组织良好的防守，所以库尼亚今天可能不会进球。对阵马努时，伍尔弗汉普顿的表现比我——或者任何职业足球投注者——预期的都要好。然而，在这场比赛中，马努远没有达到他们的最佳水平，中场和防守都令人惊讶地缺乏组织。曼努埃尔主教练埃里克·滕·黑格的愤怒表情很好地反映了球场上发生的事情。即使在比赛结束后，他也对球队的表现不太满意。

在开球时，马努的价格略低于1.30，在我看来，价格或多或少是正确的，但这次我错了，我可以承认这一点。准确地说，东道主的预期进球数仅略高于狼队——1.87比1.85。此外，客队甚至记录了更多的射门和射门次数- 23-15。更奇怪的是，狼队在比赛后期的点球被判无效。这是裁判的一个非常有问题的判罚，狼队球员、足球媒体和许多在电视上评论比赛的专家都严厉批评了这个判罚。预计裁判员将因其在这场比赛中的判罚而受到国际足联的处罚。然而，这场重要的比赛是周一为数不多的几场重要比赛之一，被拒的点球得到了如此多的媒体关注，这似乎对狼队在这里的赔率产生了很大的影响。对阵布莱顿，毕竟他们在比赛的各个方面都有巨大的优势——尤其是在进球潜力方面。我们不应该对狼队在对阵马努这样的强队时表现得“比还好”反应过度!尽管球队中有一些经验丰富的优秀球员，但他们仍然是一支实力有限的球队。新教练肯定需要时间和球队在一起，以使他的队员达到最佳水平。一般来说，重要的是要在赛季初期相信季前赛的能量评级，而不是根据一场甚至2-5场比赛进行大的调整。这对大多数职业足球投注者来说是很清楚的——对于娱乐投注者和博彩公司来说就不是那么多了。我们必须利用现在和将来的高概率!