Chelsea VS Liverpool

Chelsea and Liverpool lock horns in this English Premier League round 1 clash at Stamford Bridge in London late Sunday evening Beijing time. This is the best league in the world – most importantly we have yet another awesome betting opportunity here to increase the winning streak! Football fans and us profit-hungry, serious football bettors can expect a match of great level between these two gigantic world-class teams!Interestingly, both teams had a horribly disappointing last season. Indeed, Liverpool finished in 5th place with a total of 71 points to their account. Their number of expected points (xPTS) was lower - 68.78 to be precise.This is, of course not a satisfactory result for a team that probably almost everyone, including myself, ranked as the number one challenger for Manchester City for the title. City, as most of my fans probably know, took the title before Arsenal who surprised the football world with an amazing season despite fading away right at the end of the season. They are expected to be the second-best team in this league this season.  Liverpool struggled massively all the way to the last 10 or so games and it looked like they well might even fail to make it to the top-7! Real Madrid, for example, humiliated them 2-5 in an UEFA Champions League Play Offs first clash at Anfield Road! The Liverpool many of us remember from the previous 2-5 seasons would probably never have suffered a loss by a margin of three goals at home! Liverpool are expected to improve for this season, sure, but they still have many of the same key players in the squad - and of course the same manager, German Jurgen Klopp, an excellent but very demanding perfectionist. I have Liverpool in the 4th place in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class. Unlike many football journalists, bookies and professional football bettors I rate the ” Red Devils” from Manchester as a slightly better team with the optimal starting eleven.

 Offensively Liverpool were pretty strong last season – scoring 75 goals in the Premier League. In fact, their number of expected goals (xG) was even bigger. They have massive offensive power in the team – for example one of the best strikers in the whole world, Salah and a young talent in Darwin Nunez from Uruguay. However, Salah is not a young player anymore and I believe he is (finally) past his prime already and he will probably be a bit overrated by the betting market this season.. Nunez was a disappointment last season – wasting too many scoring chances – but will surely improve for this season. He has now had a full season to get used to the tempo and physically strong and fast defenders in this league as well as learn English which should help him in being an integral part of the Liverpool team. Even so, I still think the expectations for him are slightly too high for this season.. I think he will not peak until next season – or perhaps – 2025-2026. The Liverpool defense was very poorly organized and vulnerable in many games – not only in the Champions League but also in the Premier League last season. They allowed ”only” 47 goals in this league, but their number of goals allowed (xGA) was 56.12! For example Newcastle, who finished in third place allowed just 33 goals! The same potential defensive problems mainly exist for this season as well and it seems the bookies do not fully realize this. Liverpool pressed the opponents defense very aggressively for many seasons – with great results. However, their squad aging began to show on the pitch last season and they could not physically – or perhaps sometimes did not have the mental strength and desire to keep on doing this consistently.. This is understandable as Klopp's style is very demanding and the team had already won so much in the past – the Premier League as well as the Champions League. A good example of Liverpool's last season is the final game (round 38) against Southampton away from home as massive favorites according to the bookies – priced around 1.50 to win. Southampton were the rock-bottom team at the end of last season but the final score was – amazingly – 4-4!In the friendlies, on the summer break Liverpool's results are mixed but their defense has kept on failing to impress me. For example a pretty small German team, Greuther Furth forced Liverpool into a 4-4 draw. Furthermore, Bayern Munich beat Liverpool 4-3. They did, however, take three wins too, against lowly opponents - such as a German team, Darmstadt -  though. I expect Klopp and his team to do everything they can to improve the defense as if they do not improve even a top-6 finish is not certain.. 

Chelsea were a gigantic disappointment last season and ended up in the 12th place. They grabbed just 44 points and there is no denying that in many games nothing seemed to really work in their game and the team spirit was also - according to my sources  - far from optimal. Even so, their number of xPTS was still 54.45. Chelsea - with several managers last season - were more like a ”circus” than a serious, one of the richest football clubs on the planet! Now they have an excellent manager, Argentine M. Pochettino, who was able to make ” the forever losers” Tottenham Hotspur a serious team a few years ago and took the team to a Champions League League final. Even he could not win trophies with Tottenham though. He is a great leader, good at improving his players' skills and is a smart tactician as well. I think he is an underrated manager and this probably affects the odds too.. The Chelsea offense was hilariously inefficient last season and we cannot expect them to be a top-6 in this area of the game this season either.. However, it is clear that they have much room for improvement especially in this area of the game. ´

Chelsea scored just 38 goals in the Premier League last season but their number of xG was massively bigger – 52.12. Their defense was, in fact, pretty good and they allowed 47 goals. I expect them to rely on strong defense early in the season – it takes time to work on the offense at this level.. They spent some 600 million euros last season on new players but have recently sold some as well. There is immense potential in the squad and I believe football fans and bookies give the catastrophic last season too much emphasis ahead of this game.. I recommend my fans to watch especially the super-talented and fast Ukrainian left winger, Mudryk,22, very closely. Let's also remember that with a total players market value of over 900 million euros Chelsea are, on paper, a bit bigger team than Liverpool according to a well-respected German website, Transfermarkt.com! Even so, Liverpool are the slightly stronger team with the expected lineups here. However, the home advantage is massive here - the Chelsea fans must be very excited to see a new season starting! The bookies see Liverpool as solid favorites here - offering them odds of around 2.30 to take all three points. This is way too low in my expert opinion and the smart bet is Chelsea with the +0.5 goals handicap option. The goal expectancy here is bigger than in this league on average but it is still lower then the current odds reflect. The probability of under 2.5 goals to be scored is 47%. The draw would probably be a satisfactory start to the season for both teams. Lastly I want to mention that Chelsea have not lost any of their latest six games despite facing strong opponents like Dortmund, Fulham, Newcastle and Brighton!

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切尔西VS利物浦

北京时间周日晚，英超第一轮切尔西和利物浦将在伦敦斯坦福桥球场展开激战。这是世界上最好的联赛-最重要的是，我们有另一个很棒的投注机会来增加连胜纪录!足球迷和我们这些渴望利润的严肃的足球投注者可以期待这两支巨大的世界级球队之间的一场高水平比赛!有趣的是，两支球队上个赛季的表现都非常令人失望。事实上，利物浦以71分的积分排名第五。他们的预期得分(xPTS)较低，准确地说是68.78分。这当然不是一个令人满意的结果，因为几乎所有人，包括我自己，都认为这支球队是曼城夺冠的头号挑战者。正如我的大多数球迷可能知道的那样，曼城在阿森纳之前获得了冠军，尽管阿森纳在赛季结束时就消失了，但他们却以一个惊人的赛季震惊了足球界。他们有望成为本赛季联盟中第二好的球队。利物浦在过去的十多场比赛中一直在苦苦挣扎，看起来他们甚至可能无法进入前七名!例如，在欧冠联赛附加赛的第一场比赛中，皇马在安菲尔德路以2-5羞辱了他们!我们许多人记得的前2-5个赛季的利物浦可能从来不会在主场输掉3球!当然，利物浦本赛季有望取得进步，但他们仍然拥有许多同样的关键球员，当然还有同样的教练，德国人尤尔根·克洛普，一个出色但要求非常高的完美主义者。我把利物浦排在第四位，这反映了两支球队的实力。与许多足球记者、博彩公司和职业足球投注者不同，我认为来自曼彻斯特的“红魔”是一支稍强的球队，拥有最佳的首发11人。

上赛季利物浦在进攻端相当强大，在英超打进75球。事实上，他们的预期目标数量(xG)甚至更大。他们拥有强大的进攻力量，比如世界上最好的前锋之一萨拉赫和来自乌拉圭的年轻天才达尔文·努涅斯。然而，萨拉赫不再是一个年轻球员了，我相信他(最终)已经度过了他的黄金时期，他本赛季可能会被博彩市场高估。努涅斯上赛季表现令人失望，浪费了太多得分机会，但本赛季肯定会有所改善。他现在已经有一个完整的赛季来适应这个联赛的节奏和身体强壮、速度快的后卫，同时学习英语，这将有助于他成为利物浦球队不可或缺的一部分。尽管如此，我仍然认为这个赛季对他的期望有点太高了。我认为他要到下个赛季，或者2025-2026赛季才能达到巅峰。利物浦的防守组织得很差，在很多比赛中都很脆弱——不仅仅是在欧冠，上赛季的英超也是如此。他们在这个联赛中“只”丢了47个球，但他们的失球数(xGA)是56.12!例如纽卡斯尔，排名第三，只丢了33个球!同样的潜在防守问题在本赛季也主要存在，似乎博彩公司没有完全意识到这一点。利物浦在过去的几个赛季里都对对手的防守施加了很大的压力，并取得了很好的成绩。然而，他们的阵容老化在上个赛季开始在球场上表现出来，他们的身体状况不佳——或者可能有时没有精神上的力量和欲望来保持这种状态。这是可以理解的，因为克洛普的风格非常苛刻，而且球队在过去已经赢得了很多冠军——英超和欧冠。利物浦上个赛季的一个很好的例子是客场对阵南安普顿的最后一场比赛(第38轮)，根据博彩公司的说法，这是一场大热门，胜率在1.50左右。南安普顿是上赛季末的垫底球队，但最后的比分却是令人惊讶的4-4!在夏季的友谊赛中，利物浦的成绩好坏参半，但他们的防守一直没有给我留下深刻的印象。例如，一支相当小的德国队，格鲁瑟·弗斯迫使利物浦以4比4战平。此外，拜仁慕尼黑以4-3击败利物浦。然而，他们也取得了三场胜利，不过是战胜了实力较弱的对手，比如德国的达姆施塔特队。我希望克洛普和他的球队尽一切努力提高防守，如果他们不提高，即使是前6名也是不确定的。

切尔西上赛季非常令人失望，最后只排在第12名。他们格拉伯

埃德只有44分，不可否认的是，在许多比赛中，他们的比赛似乎没有什么真正发挥作用，团队精神也远没有达到最佳状态。即便如此，他们的xPTS数量仍然是54.45。切尔西——上赛季换了几位主帅——更像是一个“马戏团”，而不是一个严肃的、世界上最富有的足球俱乐部之一!如今，他们有了一位出色的主帅——阿根廷人波切蒂诺(M. Pochettino)。几年前，他把“永远的失败者”托特纳姆热刺(Tottenham Hotspur)打造成了一支劲旅，并带领球队进入了欧冠联赛(Champions League)决赛。即使是他也没能在热刺赢得奖杯。他是一个伟大的领袖，善于提高球员的技术，也是一个聪明的战术家。我认为他是一个被低估的教练，这可能也会影响到他夺冠的几率。上赛季切尔西的进攻效率太低了，我们也不能指望他们本赛季能在这方面进入前六。然而，很明显，他们有很大的改进空间，特别是在这个领域的游戏。´

切尔西上赛季在英超联赛中只进了38个球，但是他们的xG数要多得多——52.12。事实上，他们的防守相当好，他们丢了47个球。我希望他们在赛季初依靠强大的防守——在这个水平上，进攻需要时间。上个赛季，他们在新球员身上花费了大约6亿欧元，但最近也出售了一些球员。这支球队有巨大的潜力，我相信球迷和博彩公司在这场比赛之前过分强调了上赛季的灾难性。我建议我的球迷们仔细观察这位才华横溢、速度很快的乌克兰左翼球员，22岁的穆德莱克。让我们也记住，根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，切尔西的球员总市值超过9亿欧元，在纸面上比利物浦稍大一点!即便如此，利物浦的阵容还是稍强一些。然而，主场优势是巨大的——切尔西球迷一定非常兴奋地看到新赛季的开始!博彩公司认为利物浦是这里最受欢迎的球队，他们开出了2.30的赔率来拿下全部三分。这在我看来太低了，聪明的赌注是切尔西+0.5的进球障碍选项。这里的进球预期比这个联赛的平均水平要高，但仍然低于目前的赔率。进球少于2.5个的概率是47%。对于两支球队来说，平局可能是本赛季令人满意的开始。最后我想提一下，切尔西在最近的六场比赛中没有输过一场，尽管面对的是多特蒙德、富勒姆、纽卡斯尔和布莱顿这样的强敌!