PSV Eindhoven vs Sturm Graz

PSV Eindhoven and Sturm Graz lock horns in this UEFA Champions League qualification first leg clash at Philips Stadion in Eindhoven early Wednesday morning Beijing time. The hosts are a Dutch team and the visitors come from Austria. The first leg in international club competitions is often pretty defensive, sometimes even cautious football. The same can be expected here as well – especially in the first half. Even a quick goal by either team would probably not change that much. Yes, Durch teams usually play offensive football, especially at home, but I do not expect even the hosts to be overly aggressive – taking too big offensive risks. Indeed, the visitors are good at counter-attacking against better teams. Sturm Graz have many skilled and fast offensive players. I expect them to defend very hard here and to mainly rely on counter attacks, corner kicks, free kicks – or a possible penalty kick to score.. They would most probably be pretty happy with the draw here. I see the match as more low-scoring than the betting market does. The probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 49%. Furthermore, the probability of a draw is higher than the current odds suggest – 26% to be precise. However, my fans and I will win the recommended bet of +1.5 goals on Sturm Graz even if they were to lose by a margin of one goal. The probability is 70%!

There is, of course, no doubt about the fact that the hosts are the better team here by pure class. In terms of defensive quality the difference is thinner than in terms of offensive power. The hosts' players total market value according to a German website,Transfermarkt.com, a reliable and well-known source, is around 157 million euros but this is definitely too high! At least four players are clearly over-valued. I would set the number at around 110-112 million. The Sturm Graz squad is valued at some 48 million euros which is way a bit low too high in my view.. 50-51 million would be a more realistic number. Indeed, the players total market values usually reflects the teams' performances on the pitch pretty well but can also be misleading.. My point here is that whilst the hosts are the bigger club – Sturm Graz,too, have a long list of very good players and that the difference in class between the two teams is smaller than many football fans and the betting market realize. The biggest, sometimes pretty smart bookies, who offer the biggest betting limits, on the other hand see PSV as big favorites. The odds on them to win are at around 1.50 and this is too low. With the expected lineups I see them having a 58% chance to win.

The home advantage in international club competitions is on average extremely high this the case here as well and this does not fool an experienced professional football bettor like me! Last season PSV finished in 2nd place in the Dutch Eredivisie with only points 75 in their pocket. Their number of expected points (xPTS) was, however, lower – 70.12 to be precise. I expect them to be worse this season and seeing them drop outside the top-3 would not be a massive surprise,. They were strong offensively scoring 89 in the domestic league, more than the champions, Feyenoord, but were very lucky in terms of expected goals (xG). Their defense, on the other hand, was not very solid and they conceded 40 goals, more than Sparta Rotetrdam who ended up in 6th place. The Austrian visitors do have a good chance to score as the PSV defense is not expected to have significantly improved for this season.. They beat Feynoors as clear underdogs in their most recent game 1-0. It was the Dutch Super Cup final and PSV did play well – above their normal level. Even so, the match was relatively balanced and Feynoors were weirdly lame in his game. The bookies seem to give this match too much emphasis ahead of this big qualification game! Sturm Graz played strongly last season in the Austrian Bundesliga and finished second behind the dominant Salzburg. Sturm Graz grabbed 42 points but their number of xPTS was 45.12. Things look good for them as they have started the season with two easy wins – 3-0 away from home over a dangerous team, Austria Vienna, who finished 4th last season. In their most recent game they beat LASK, a good team, 2-0 at home recording much more in xG than the visitors. They also had many more scoring attempts, dangerous attacks, goal attempts (16-6), shots on goal (6-1) and shots off goal – 6-3. They were a strong team even away from home in the Bundesliga, losing just three of the 16 games!

埃因霍温vs格拉茨

北京时间周三凌晨，埃因霍温和格拉茨将在埃因霍温的飞利浦球场进行欧冠资格赛首回合的交锋。东道主是荷兰队，客队来自奥地利。国际俱乐部比赛的第一回合通常是非常防守的，有时甚至是谨慎的足球。同样的情况在这里也会发生——尤其是在上半场。即使是任何一支球队的快速进球也不会有太大的改变。是的，荷兰队通常踢进攻型足球，尤其是在主场，但我不认为东道主会过于激进——冒太大的进攻风险。事实上，客队很擅长对强队进行反击。格拉茨有很多技术娴熟、进攻速度快的球员。我认为他们在这里会非常努力地防守，主要依靠反击、角球、任意球——或者可能的点球来得分。他们很可能会对抽签结果非常满意。我认为这场比赛的得分比博彩市场更低。总进球数少于2.5个的概率是49%。此外，平局的可能性比目前的赔率要高——准确地说是26%。然而，我的球迷和我将赢得推荐的+1.5个进球的赌注，即使他们输了一个球。概率是70%!

当然，毫无疑问的事实是，东道主在实力上更胜一筹。在防守质量方面的差距比在进攻能力方面的差距要小。根据德国一家知名可靠的网站Transfermarkt.com，东道主球员的总市值约为1.57亿欧元，但这绝对太高了!至少有四位球员显然被高估了。我估计这个数字在1.1亿到1.12亿之间。格拉茨队的价值约为4800万欧元，在我看来有点低，太高了。5000万到5100万是比较现实的数字。的确，球员的总市场价值通常很好地反映了球队在球场上的表现，但也可能被误导。我的观点是，虽然东道主是更大的俱乐部——同样是斯特姆格拉茨，但他们也有一长串非常优秀的球员，而且两支球队之间的等级差异比许多球迷和博彩市场意识到的要小。另一方面，最大的，有时是相当聪明的博彩公司，他们提供最大的赌注限制，将埃因霍温视为大热门。他们获胜的几率在1.50左右，这太低了。根据预期的阵容，我认为他们有58%的机会获胜。

国际俱乐部比赛的主场优势平均来说非常高，这里的情况也是如此，这骗不了像我这样经验丰富的职业足球投注者!上个赛季，埃因霍温仅以75分的积分排名荷甲联赛第二。然而，他们的期望值(xPTS)较低，准确地说是70.12。我预计他们本赛季会更糟，看到他们跌出前三并不会让人感到意外。他们在进攻端表现强劲，在国内联赛中打进89球，比冠军费耶诺德多，但在预期进球方面非常幸运(xG)。另一方面，他们的防守并不稳固，他们丢了40个球，比排名第六的罗特勒丹斯巴达还多。奥地利客队确实有很好的机会进球，因为埃因霍温的防守本赛季不会有太大的改善。在最近的一场比赛中，他们以1比0击败了明显处于劣势的费努尔斯。这是荷兰超级杯决赛，埃因霍温踢得很好，超出了他们的正常水平。即便如此，这场比赛还是相对平衡的，费努尔斯在比赛中表现得很糟糕。在这场重要的资格赛之前，博彩公司似乎给了这场比赛太多的重视!上赛季在奥地利德甲联赛中，格拉茨队表现强劲，排名第二，落后于强势的萨尔茨堡队。格拉茨狂飙得到42分，但他们的得分为45.12分。情况看起来不错，因为他们本赛季开局两场轻松获胜——客场3-0战胜了一支危险的球队，奥地利维也纳，他们上赛季排名第四。在他们最近的一场比赛中，他们击败了LASK，一支优秀的球队，主场2比0，在xG上的记录比客队多得多。他们也有更多的得分尝试、危险进攻、进球尝试(16胜6负)、射正(6胜1负)和射偏(6胜3负)。即使在德甲客场，他们也是一支强队，在16场比赛中只输了3场!