FC Astana VS Ludogorets Razgrad

FC Astana and Ludogorets lock horns in this UEFA Europa League qualification first leg clash at Astana Arena late Tuesday evening Beijing time. The hosts are a Kazakhstani team and the visitors come from Bulgaria. The first leg in international club competitions is usually pretty defensive, sometimes even cautious football. The same is on the cards here as well – especially in the first half. Even a quick goal by either team would probably not change this.. Indeed, I see the match as more low-scoring than the betting market does. The probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 63%. The draw would certainly not surprise anyone and the probability of this result is also somewhat high – 32% to be precise. This result would be enough to bring my fans and me the 4th winner in a row with the recommended +0.5 goals handicap on Astana. There is, of course, no doubt about the fact that the visitors are the better team here by pure class. In terms of defensive quality the difference is smaller than in terms of offensive power. The hosts' players total market value according to Transfermarkt.com, a reliable and well-known source, is around 14 million euros but I would set the number at around 20-21 million. The Ludogorets squad is valued at some 43 million euros which is way too high in my view.. 31-32 million would be a more realistic number. Indeed, the players total market values usually reflects the teams' performances on the pitch pretty well but can also be misleading.. The home advantage in international club competitions is on average extremely high. Taking a look at long-term data betting on the better team away from home in these games has been an awful idea. Sometimes even incredibly lowly teams – compared to the opposition - say from for example Ireland, Northern Ireland, Estonia etc beat big teams at home - only to lose by a margin of many goals away from home. It seems the bookies do not fully realize this element in these games..I also want to mention that Astana have achieved some success in UEFA's competitions in the past! With the expected lineups I see this match as a coin toss – without an actual favorite. The biggest, sometimes pretty smart bookies, who offer the biggest betting limits, on the other hand see Ludogorets as solid favorites. The odds on the visitors to win are at around 2.35. 

Ludogorets were a massive disappointment in the Champions League qualification earlier this summer. Indeed, a Slovenian team, O. Ljubljana qualified with 3-2 on aggregate. This team's players estimated total market value is, interestingly, lower than that of Astana's.. In the first leg In Bulgaria it was a pretty balanced game and a 1-1 draw. Ludogorets were massive favorites in this game – priced around 1.35 to win by the bookies.. Even so, the visitors recorded more scoring attempts, attacks and dangerous attacks! Ludogorets did have more shots on target though. In Slovenia O. Ljubljana were the better team with 54% ball possession and more goal attempts, shots on goal, corner kicks, attacks and dangerous attacks. Last season a Finnish team from my home town, Helsinki, played a pretty balanced match at home and it was a 1-1 draw in the UEFA Europa League group stage. HJK are a much worse team than Astana! In their most recent match Ludogorets beat Potev Vratsa 5-0 away from home as huge favorites. Yes, they were clearly the better team but the final score still flatters them... Astana lost to a very good team, Dinamo Zagreb from Croatia, 0-6 on aggregate. I do not believe anyone believed they would have much of a chance anyway., Dinamo's squad is valued at over 111 million euros. In Croatia the hosts, huge favorites on the betting market, dominated the game. However, in Astana the hosts played much better despite the 0-2 loss. They even recorded more goal attempts, attacks and especially dangerous attacks – 84-46! They have good fans and against Ludogorets, with everything to play for, the atmosphere at the stadium is going to be ecstatic! This is a gigantic boost for the hosts..

阿斯塔纳VS拉兹格勒

北京时间周二晚，阿斯塔纳足球俱乐部和卢多戈雷茨将在阿斯塔纳球场进行欧联杯资格赛首回合的交锋。东道主是哈萨克斯坦队，客队来自保加利亚。国际俱乐部比赛的第一回合通常是非常防守的，有时甚至是谨慎的足球。同样的情况也会发生——尤其是在上半场。即使是任何一支球队的快速进球也可能不会改变这一点。事实上，我认为这场比赛的得分比博彩市场更低。总进球数少于2.5个的概率是63%。这个平局肯定不会让任何人感到惊讶，而且这个结果的概率也有点高——准确地说，是32%。这个结果足以让我和我的球迷在阿斯塔纳获得连续第4次冠军，并获得建议的+0.5进球障碍。当然，毫无疑问，客队在纯粹的水平上是一支更好的球队。在防守质量方面的差异小于进攻力量方面的差异。根据可靠且知名的Transfermarkt.com的数据，东道主球员的总市值约为1400万欧元，但我认为这个数字约为2000万至2100万欧元。卢多戈雷特队的身价约为4300万欧元，在我看来太高了。3100万到3200万是更现实的数字。的确，球员的总市场价值通常很好地反映了球队在球场上的表现，但也可能被误导。在国际俱乐部比赛中，主场优势平均非常高。从长期数据来看，在这些比赛中押注客场表现更好的球队是个糟糕的主意。有时候，即使是与对手相比水平低得令人难以置信的球队，比如来自爱尔兰、北爱尔兰、爱沙尼亚等国的球队，在主场击败了强队，但在客场却以多球之差输掉了比赛。似乎博彩公司没有完全意识到这些比赛中的这一因素……我还想提一下，阿斯塔纳在过去的欧足联比赛中取得了一些成功!对于预期的阵容，我认为这场比赛就像抛硬币一样——没有一个真正的最爱。另一方面，最大的，有时是相当聪明的博彩公司，他们提供最大的赌注限制，认为卢多戈雷特是可靠的宠儿。客队获胜的赔率约为2.35。

卢多戈雷茨在今年夏天早些时候的欧冠资格赛中表现得非常令人失望。事实上，斯洛文尼亚球队卢布尔雅那(O. Ljubljana)以总比分3-2晋级。有趣的是，这支球队的球员估计的总市值低于阿斯塔纳队。在第一回合对阵保加利亚的比赛中，我们以1比1战平。在这场比赛中，Ludogorets是最受欢迎的，博彩公司的价格在1.35左右。即便如此，客队还是记录了更多的得分尝试、进攻和危险进攻!不过，卢多戈雷茨的射门确实更多。在斯洛文尼亚，卢布尔雅那队的控球率为54%，进球次数、射门次数、角球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数都更多。上个赛季，一支来自我的家乡赫尔辛基的芬兰球队在主场踢了一场相当平衡的比赛，在欧联杯小组赛中以1比1战平。香港是一支比阿斯塔纳糟糕得多的球队!在最近的一场比赛中，卢多戈雷茨在客场5-0击败了弗拉察，成为夺冠热门。是的，他们显然是一支更好的球队，但最终的比分仍然让他们感到高兴……阿斯塔纳以总比分0-6输给了一支非常优秀的球队——克罗地亚的萨格勒布迪纳摩。我不相信任何人相信他们会有很大的机会。在美国，迪纳摩的球队价值超过1.11亿欧元。在克罗地亚，作为博彩市场上的大热门，东道主占据了比赛的主导地位。然而，在阿斯塔纳，尽管东道主以0比2输掉了比赛，但他们的表现要好得多。他们甚至记录了更多的进球尝试、进攻，尤其是危险的进攻——84比46!他们有很好的球迷，对阵卢多戈雷茨，有一切可以为之奋斗，球场的气氛将是狂喜的!这对东道主来说是一个巨大的鼓舞。