Four more TOP16 games are left in the World Cup and the 1st game on Monday night is going to be between England and Nigeria. While England is a clear favorite in this game, I'm saying that they won't win by more than 1 goal.

England didn't start the tournament very well. Yes, they won all three games but after the first two, they had only a total of 2 goals scored. They dominated against Haiti and Denmark but weren't able to score more. A real scoring rain was in the last game against China where the best European team scored a total of 6 goals and crushed the opponents 6:1. Despite three victories and a clean group stage, the English attack hardly dazzled in two of its three matches. They created less than 2 non-penalty xG against Haiti and finished the group stage with just the ninth-most xG created of 32 teams in the field.

Nigeria didn't have the easiest group. They started the tournament with a 0:0 draw against Canada which was followed by a shocking 3:2 win over Australia. In the last group game, they needed one point to secure a place in the 2nd round which happened as they drew 0:0 against Ireland. Canada created 0.7 xG compared to 0.5 for Nigeria, total shots were 15-11 Canada and the Canadians had just eight more touches in the attacking penalty area.

Nigeria closed +1.25 against Canada and then closed +1 on the road at Australia (without Sam Kerr or Oshoala) in the second match of the group stage. The Super Falcons outperformed expectations in both matches and are now priced as an even bigger underdog against England in the round of 16. Prior to the tournament, Nigeria lost only 1:2 to the USA, 0:1 to Mexico and Columbia, and was able to beat teams like Costa Rica, New Zealand and Haiti. I don't think that Nigeria should be such an underdog. England could be a little bit overhyped and I'm expecting a close match on Monday afternoon.

世界杯前16强还剩下四场比赛，周一晚上的第一场比赛将是英格兰和尼日利亚之间的比赛。虽然英格兰队在这场比赛中很受欢迎，但我说他们不会赢超过一球。

英格兰队在比赛开始时表现不佳。是的，他们赢了所有三场比赛，但在前两场比赛之后，他们总共只进了2个球。他们在对阵海地和丹麦的比赛中占据优势，但没能取得更多进球。真正的进球雨是在上一场与中国队的比赛中，欧洲最好的球队共进6球，以6:1击败对手。尽管在小组赛中取得了三场胜利，英格兰的进攻在三场比赛中几乎没有两场表现出色。在对阵海地的比赛中，他们创造了不到2个非点球进球，小组赛结束时，他们创造的非点球进球在32支球队中排名第九。

尼日利亚的小组并不轻松。他们以0:0战平加拿大开始比赛，随后又以3:2击败澳大利亚。在上一场小组赛中，他们以0比0战平爱尔兰，只需要1分就能确保进入第二轮。加拿大创造了0.7倍的射门机会，尼日利亚创造了0.5倍的射门机会，加拿大的总射门次数为15比11，加拿大在进攻禁区内的触球次数仅比尼日利亚多8次。

尼日利亚在小组赛第二场对阵加拿大时以+1.25的比分结束比赛，然后在客场对阵澳大利亚时以+1的比分结束比赛(山姆·科尔和奥肖阿拉缺阵)。在两场比赛中，超级猎鹰队的表现都超出了预期，现在在16强对阵英格兰队的比赛中，超级猎鹰队的表现甚至更弱。在比赛之前，尼日利亚只以1:2输给美国，0:1输给墨西哥和哥伦比亚，并且能够击败哥斯达黎加，新西兰和海地等球队。我认为尼日利亚不应该处于劣势。英格兰可能有点被夸大了，我预计周一下午会有一场势均力敌的比赛。