LKS Lodz VS Korona Kielce

LKS Lodz welcome Korona Kielce for this Danish Polish Ekstraklasa round 3 clash at Stadion ŁKS very early Saturday morning Beijing time. This is the first tier of Polish football and its level is of mediocre level by European standards. In this game football fans and us serious, profit-hungry football fans cannot expect a match of very high quality by the Ekstraklasa standards between these pretty lowly teams. Indeed, the hosts were promoted to this level from Division 1 for this season. Neither team can realistically expect a very successful season.. I want to highlight that the difference between the first tier and the second tier is substantial and it will most probably take time for the LKS Lodz players to learn to deal with the much higher tempo in this league than in the Division 1. However, we must, of course, not forget about the ”newly promoted team boost” many teams have in the 5-10 rounds of play but it seems that the bookmakers are giving this factor too much emphasis here.. After all, LKS Lodz do not have that great fans by Ekstraklasa standards so the home advantage here is a little smaller than on average in this league.. The "newly promoted team boost" is usually at its strongest in home games..

Both teams are pretty small by Ekstraklasa standards in terms of financial resources and players total market value according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com. Indeed, the hosts' squad is valued at around 7.20 million euros. This number is still a bit too high in my expert opinion.. I would set the number at around six million. Korona Kielce are the bigger team by the players total market with some 8.30 million but this definitely too low and 10-10.50 million would be a more realistic number. At least three of their players are clearly undervalued in my opinion! As this is only the 3rd round of play this season it is crucial to take a look at last season that ended in June – some two months ago. LKS Lodz won the Division 1 last season with a respectactable 66 points to their account. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) was smaller – 63.04 to be precise. They netted the ball 58 times and allowed 36 goals. Their defense was not very impressive in many games – especially against the stroger teams and I expect this area of the game to be their biggest weakness this season.. Korona Kielce, on the other hand, played a pretty good season in this league last season and finished in 13th place – just five points behind Cracovia who ended up in as high as in the 7th place. They took a total of 41 points and their number of expected points (xPTS) was 42.89. Korona Kielce scored 39 goals and conceded 48 goals. In terms of expected goals (xG) they were neither lucky nor unlucky but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) was only 43.34. In terms of defensive quality I see them as much better than LKS Lodz! Offensively the edge is smaller but it is still there!

 he biggest, sometimes pretty smart bookies see the hosts as solid favorites here and offer them odds of around 2.40 to send the visitors home empty-handed.. I must disagree and based on my sophisticated, strongly data-based expert analysis the visitors deserve to be marginal favorites here. Neither team have convinced me offensively so far this season and the goal expectancy here is smaller than the betting market estimates. In fact, neither team have netted the ball at all this season!The probability of under 2.5 goals to be scored is 61%. The draw would most certainly not surprise anyone and I believe it would satisfy both teams.. With the expected lineups the obvious smart bet is Korona Kielce +0.5 goals handicap! Korona Kielce have played just one competitive match this season and it was a goalless draw at home against Slask Wroclaw as solid favorites according to the bookies. They were priced around 2.10 to win. They would, indeed, have deserved all three points as they had 58% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (11-4), shots on goal, shots off goal, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. They also generated more than the visitors in xG. I want to highlight the Slask Wroclaw defended very well in this game. LKS have lost both of their games in the Ekstraklasa this season. In the first round Legia crushed LKS Lodz 3-0 at home. Legia were the much better team and had 59% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (18-7), shots on goal (9-1), shots off goal, corner kicks, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. The LKS defense looked very vulnerable and unorganized in this game.. In their most recent game they were not that bad but lost to Ruch Chorozow, another newly promoted team, 0-2 away from home despite 61% ball possession. However, they lacked offensive creativity and passing accuracy at critical moments and only recorded two shots on goal but did still have some chances to score. They would have to improve a lot – or get lucky to beat Korona Kielce!

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就像罗兹VS凯尔切

北京时间周六凌晨，洛兹将在ŁKS球场迎来与丹麦和波兰的第三轮比赛。这是波兰足球的第一梯队，按照欧洲的标准，它的水平处于中等水平。在这场比赛中，球迷和我们这些严肃的、追求利润的球迷不能指望在这些相当低级的球队之间进行一场高质量的比赛。事实上，东道主是本赛季从甲级升入这个级别的。两支球队都不可能期待一个非常成功的赛季。我想强调的是，第一梯队和第二梯队之间的差异是巨大的，LKS Lodz的球员很可能需要时间来适应这个联赛比1级联赛快得多的节奏。然而，我们必须，当然，不要忘记许多球队在5-10轮比赛中有“新提升的球队推动”，但似乎博彩公司在这里过分强调了这个因素。毕竟，按照Ekstraklasa的标准，LKS Lodz没有那么好的球迷，所以这里的主场优势比这个联盟的平均水平要小一些。“新晋球队的推动力”通常在主场比赛中最为强劲。

根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，按照Ekstraklasa的标准，这两支球队的财力和球员的总市值都很小。事实上，东道主球队的身价约为720万欧元。在我看来，这个数字还是有点太高了。我估计这个数字在600万左右。Korona Kielce是一支更大的球队，拥有830万球员，但这个数字太低了，1000万到1050万是更现实的数字。在我看来，至少有三名球员被明显低估了!由于这只是本赛季的第三轮比赛，所以我们有必要看看上个赛季结束于6月的情况——大约两个月前。LKS Lodz上赛季以可观的66分夺得了甲级联赛冠军。然而，他们的期望值(xPTS)更小，准确地说是63.04。他们射门58次，失36球。他们的防守在很多比赛中都不是很令人印象深刻，尤其是面对更强的球队，我预计这将是他们本赛季最大的弱点。另一方面，科罗纳-凯尔切上赛季在联赛中表现不错，排名第13位，仅比排名第7的克拉科维亚落后5分。他们总共取了41分，期望分数(xPTS)为42.89分。科罗纳·凯尔采进39球，丢48球。在预期进球(xG)方面，他们既不幸运也不不幸，但他们的预期进球(xGA)只有43.34个。就防守质量而言，我认为他们比洛兹强得多!进攻端的优势变小了，但它仍然存在!

最大的，有时相当聪明的博彩公司认为东道主是这里的大热门，并提供2.40左右的赔率，让访客空手而归。我必须不同意，根据我的复杂，强烈的数据为基础的专家分析，游客应该是边缘的最爱在这里。本赛季到目前为止，两支球队都没有让我相信他们的进攻，而且这里的进球预期比博彩市场估计的要小。事实上，这两支球队本赛季都没有进球!进不到2.5球的概率是61%。平局肯定不会让任何人感到惊讶，我相信两支球队都会满意。有了预期的阵容，显然明智的赌注是科罗纳·凯尔采+0.5个进球障碍!科罗纳-凯尔采本赛季只打了一场正式比赛，而且是在主场0比0战平弗罗茨瓦夫，这是博彩公司的热门比赛。它们的定价在2.10美元左右。事实上，他们应该得到这三分，因为他们有58%的控球率，并且记录了更多的进球次数(11-4)，射门次数，射门次数，总传球次数，完成传球次数，进攻次数和危险进攻次数。他们的收入也超过了xG的访客。我想强调的是，弗罗茨瓦夫在这场比赛中防守得非常好。LKS本赛季在Ekstraklasa输掉了两场比赛。在第一轮比赛中，莱吉亚主场3-0击败了LKS Lodz。莱吉亚要好得多，控球率达到59%，并且有更多的射门次数(18-7次)、射正次数(9-1次)、射偏次数、角球次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数。在这场比赛中，LKS的防守看起来非常脆弱和没有组织。在最近的一场比赛中，他们的表现并不差，但输给了另一位新职业选手鲁奇·乔洛佐

尽管控球率为61%，但他们在客场0-2负。然而，他们缺乏进攻创造力和关键时刻的传球准确性，只有两次射门，但仍然有一些进球的机会。他们必须有很大的进步——或者运气好就能打败科罗纳·凯尔策!