Mjallby AIF VS Djurgarden

Mjallby welcome Djurgarden for this Swedish Allsvenskan round 17 battle at Strandvallen in Hällevik Sunday evening Beijing time. This the highest level of Swedish football but is of pretty low level by European standards but is still much better than for example the Finnish Veikkausliiga. When analyzing and betting on Allsvenskan it is important to realize that the home advantage in this league is on average somewhat lower than in most big European leagues. However, Djurgarden have won just one game on the road in this league so far and their goal difference away from home is poor – 8:14!  At home they are massively better. I want to highlight that here home advantage is big by Allsvenskan standards! Football fans and us serious profit-hungry football bettors can expect a quite high-level or entertaining game between these two better than average teams. Djurgarden currently occupy the 4th place in the standings and have a total of 30 points to their account. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) is just 26.34. Furthermore, their score difference is not very impressive 25:22 – to be precise. Last season they finished in 2nd place but are clearly worse this season! The bookies have seemingly not fully realized the drop in their level of game. They took a total of 57 points last season but were lucky in many balanced games and their number of xPTS was just 54.21. 

Djurgarden were lame in their latest game and lost to a mediocre Swiss team, Luzern, 1-2 at home in a UEFA Conference League Qualifying first leg battle as clear favorites on the betting market – priced around 2.10 to win. This match was played late on Thursday so the visitors have just two full days to recover and prepare for this game. This is far from optimal in professional football! Before this they were abysmal at home and lost to Elfsborg 0-4 at home as solid favorites – priced around 2.20 by the bookies to take all three points. The visitors recorded many more shots on goal (8-1) and goal attempts -  11-5. Furthermore, they recorded 2.87 in expected goals (xG), poor Djurgarden managed just 0.34! Their defense looked very poorly organized and vulnerable as a whole..  Yes, they can improve but the current odds of around 2.15 on them to win available on the betting market at the time of writing this analysis Sunday morning Beijing time is still much too low! Based on my sophisticated expert analysis the visitors are only narrow favorites here -unless new important absentees are announced later on. The hosts are without Adolfsson, Johansson, Nwankwo and Petersson. Bjornson is questionable. The visitors will are missing Bengtsson and Kack. Mjallby with the +0.5 goals handicap option is the obvious smart bet here!

Mjallby have struggled offensively this season - there is no denying this and Djurgarden have a clear edge in this area of the game. Indeed, the hosts have scored just 16 goals in this league so far. Mjallby have allowed less goals than Djurgarden but I still see the teams more or less equal in this area of the game going into this game. The hosts' offense has lacked creativity, speed and passing accuracy near the opponent's goal in many matches so far. However, on Monday they scored three goals away from home against Sirius – taking a fine 3-2 win! Surely a big boost for them! They were clear underdogs in this game – according to the bookies and were priced around 3.35 to win. I disagreed and my fans and I comfortably won a bet on Mjallby! They generated 2.35 in expected goals (xG) - Sirius' managed 1.98. I have previewed another game on this league for today as well – with lucrative odds- of course!The bookies make many mistakes with their odds on this league! They put more resources on the big leagues that are played in the summer – for example the Brazilian Serie A and the MLS. I do trust Mjallby's very capable coach and players to improve further -  at least a little -  offensively as the season progresses – there is still work to do if they want to climb up the standings. I expect Mjallby to be pretty defensive here against a dangerous opponent and rely mainly on fast counter attacks to score here. Djurgarden, too, are often pretty passive away from home and also need to save some energy and avoid injuries; the second leg against Luzern is very important.. Some squad rotation is expected too.. Indeed, the goal expectancy here is a little lower than the bookies think – the probability of under 2.5 total goals is - based on my strongly data-based analysis - 62.5% here. 

Mjallby's number of xG is 17.47. Last season they scored 33 goals in the Allsvenskan. When looking at both teams' players total market value on a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com Djurgarden are the bigger team but their squad is clearly overvalued! In my opinion Mjallby's squad is - at around nine million -  undervalued. As I have mentioned before many times the market values can also sometimes be misleading.. Everything suggests that this will be a balanced clash! Mjallby have lost just one of their latest five games and have even won three of these five matches. Their much better form and level of confidence must be given enough emphasis here! Before beating Sirius Mjallby were defeated by Norrkoping at home 1-2 and were far from their best. The match was somewhat balanced though.. Before this they achieved a great 2-1 win as huge underdogs – priced around 10.00 to win - away from home against very strong Malmo! Malmo are the biggest club in Sweden despite not topping the standings at the moment.. They have a strong squad - valued at 31.25 million euros according to Transfermarkt.com and even played in the UEFA Champions League group stage 2021! The bookies do not have not given this win enough emphasis and keep on underestimating Mjallby. We must take advantage of this..

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jallby AIF VS Djurgarden

欢迎尤尔加登参加北京时间周日晚上在Hällevik举行的瑞典Allsvenskan第17轮比赛。这是瑞典足球的最高水平，但与欧洲标准相比仍处于较低水平，但仍比芬兰的维克斯利加(Veikkausliiga)要好得多。在分析和下注奥尔斯温斯坎时，重要的是要意识到这个联赛的主场优势平均比大多数欧洲联赛要低。然而，到目前为止，尤尔加登在联赛中只赢了一场客场比赛，他们的客场净胜球也很低——8:14!在国内，他们要好得多。我想强调的是，以阿尔斯温斯卡的标准来看，主场优势是很大的!足球迷和我们这些极度渴望利润的足球投注者可以期待这两支比一般球队更好的球队之间的高水平或娱乐性的比赛。jurgarden目前在积分榜上排名第四，总共有30分。然而，他们的期望值(xPTS)只有26.34。此外，准确地说，他们的比分差距不是很大，只有25:22。上赛季他们排在第二，但本赛季显然更差了!博彩公司似乎还没有完全意识到他们比赛水平的下降。上赛季他们总共得到57分，但在许多平衡的比赛中，他们很幸运，他们的得分只有54.21分。

尤尔加登队在最近的比赛中表现不佳，在欧足联预选赛首回合主场1-2输给了一支平庸的瑞士球队卢塞恩队，在博彩市场上，他们是最受欢迎的球队，胜率在2.10左右。这场比赛在周四晚些时候进行，所以客队只有整整两天的时间来恢复和准备这场比赛。这在职业足球中远非最佳!在此之前，他们在主场表现糟糕，在主场0-4输给了埃尔夫斯堡，虽然他们是最受欢迎的球队，但他们的价格在2.20英镑左右，可以拿到全部三分。客队的射门次数(8胜1负)和射门次数(11胜5负)更多。此外，他们的预期进球数(xG)为2.87，可怜的尤尔加登仅为0.34!他们的防守看起来组织得很差，整体上很脆弱。是的，他们可以提高，但在北京时间周日上午写这篇分析时，目前投注市场上他们赢球的赔率约为2.15，仍然太低了!根据我老练的专家分析，访客在这里只有微弱的希望——除非稍后宣布新的重要缺席者。东道主没有阿道夫松、约翰逊、恩万科沃和彼得森。比约恩森值得怀疑。客队将失去本特森和卡卡。Mjallby的+0.5个进球障碍选项显然是明智的选择!

米哈尔比本赛季在进攻端表现不佳——这是不可否认的，而尤加登在这方面有明显的优势。事实上，东道主到目前为止在联赛中只进了16球。贾尔比丢的球比尤尔加登少，但我仍然认为两支球队在这方面或多或少是平等的。到目前为止，主队的进攻在许多比赛中都缺乏创造力、速度和在对手球门附近传球的准确性。然而，星期一，他们在客场对阵小天狼星的比赛中进了三个球——以3比2的比分大胜!这对他们来说肯定是一个很大的鼓舞!在这场比赛中，他们显然处于劣势——根据博彩公司的说法，他们的胜率在3.35左右。我不同意，我的粉丝和我轻松赢得了Mjallby的赌注!他们创造了2.35个预期进球(xG)，而小天狼星则创造了1.98个。我还预演了今天联赛的另一场比赛——当然，赔率很高!博彩公司在这个联赛的赔率上犯了很多错误!他们把更多的资源投入到夏季举行的大型联赛中，比如巴西甲级联赛和美国职业足球大联盟。我相信Mjallby非常有能力的教练和球员会进一步提高——至少是一点点——随着赛季的进展，他们在进攻端还有很多工作要做，如果他们想要在积分榜上攀升。我希望米哈尔比在这里面对一个危险的对手时能够很好的防守，并且主要依靠快速的反击来得分。Djurgarden在远离家乡的时候也很被动，也需要节省一些能量，避免受伤;第二回合对卢塞恩的比赛非常重要。也会有一些阵容轮换。事实上，这里的进球预期比博彩公司认为的要低一些——根据我强烈的基于数据的分析，总进球低于2.5的概率是62.5%。

Mjallby的xG数是17.47。上个赛季他们在阿尔斯温斯坎打进33球。当观察两支球队球员的总市场价值时

著名且受人尊敬的德国网站Transfermarkt.com, jurgarden是一支更大的球队，但他们的阵容显然被高估了!在我看来，米哈尔比的阵容——大约900万——被低估了。正如我之前多次提到的，市场价值有时也会被误导。一切都表明这将是一场平衡的冲突!在最近的五场比赛中，Mjallby只输了一场，甚至赢了其中的三场。他们更好的状态和信心水平必须在这里给予足够的重视!在击败小天狼星之前，米哈尔比在主场1-2被诺尔雪平击败，远未达到最佳状态。不过比赛在某种程度上是平衡的。在此之前，他们取得了一个伟大的2-1的胜利，作为一个巨大的不被看好的人，在主场对阵非常强大的马尔默。马尔默是瑞典最大的俱乐部，尽管目前还没有排名第一。他们拥有一支强大的球队，根据Transfermarkt.com的数据，他们的身价为3125万欧元，他们甚至参加了2021年的欧洲冠军联赛小组赛!博彩公司并没有给予这场胜利足够的重视，并继续低估了米哈尔比。我们必须利用这一点……