IFK Goteborg VS Kalmar

IFK Goteborg welcome Kalmar for this Swedish Allsvenskan round 17 clash at Gamla Ullevi early late Sunday evening Beijing time. This league is of somewhat low level by European standards but is still considerably better than for example the Finnish Veikkausliiga. When analyzing and betting on Allsvenskan it is important to realize that the home advantage in this league is on average much lower than in most big European leagues. In this match football fans and us serious football bettors cannot expect a particularly high-level or entertaining game between these two teams. Goteborg have won just one game in this league at their stadium this season! In fact, this is the only win for them in the Allsvenskan so far! The fans have, understandably, been very disappointing with their team this season and this is clearly starting to have a negative impact on the players. The betting market, I believe, gives the home advantage way too much emphasis..

 Goteborg are having an absolutely abysmal season! Indeed, they are the rock-bottom team in Allsvenskan with a pathetic 10 points to their account! Yes, they can improve in all areas of the game but the bookies still seem to give their potential too much emphasis and ignore the big problems Goteborg have had this season.. I have considerably lowered their power rating from my in-depth preseason analysis! I believe a significant improvement will not happen fast.. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is 13.12. Their offense has been very lame so far this season and they have netted the ball just 13 times in Allsvenskan. This is the lowest number in this league! Their offense has lacked speed, creativity and passing accuracy near the opponent's goal. Goteborg's offensive structure has also been poor in most games. Furthermore, their midfielders should be more active in attacking. Their confidence is understandably low and this can be seen missing goal attempts and making poor crucial passes when trying to break the opponents defense. According to my sources their team spirit is also poor. Moreover, I think their coach is overrated and not too great in terms of tactical skills. Goteborg have defended pretty well this season though and have allowed 19 goals. However, I want to highlight that their number of goals allowed (xGA) is 24.12. They have not won any of their latest 10 competitive games. In their most recent match they faced Halmstad at home and it was a rather boring match – no goals were scored Goteborg were clear favorites in this game – priced around 2.05 to take all three points. Goteborg recorded just 0.49 in expected goals (xG) – Halmstad's number was 0.43. 

The teams last locked horns on the 9th of April and the then hosts, Kalmar, took a comfortable 2-0 win. They recorded 1.98 in xG – Goteborg generated just 0.77. Kalmar had 57% ball possession and recorded many more shots on goal (6-1) and goal attempts – 14-7. Moreover, Goteborg have not beaten Kalmar in any of the latest seven games between the two teams! Even so, the bookies see them as solid favorites – with odds of around 2.25 to win. I strongly disagree! Based on my sophisticated, strongly data-based expert analysis – with the expected lineups – Kalmar should be slim favorites. The obvious smart bet is the visitors with the +0.5 goals handicap option. The goal expectancy here is lower than the bookies think – mainly due to both teams' offensive limitations. The probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 64%. The draw – the probability is 32% would surely not surprise anyone.. I also want to mention Kalmar finished in 4th place last season and the host ended up in 8th place – six points behind Kalmar. The visitors are in 6th place at the moment with 25 points in their pocket. Their number of xPTS is just 23.04 though. They have netted the ball 21 times in Allsvenskan but have defended in an organized way in most games and have allowed 21 goals. Their number of xGA is 18.12. Indeed, defensively their edge over Goteborg is only marginal. In their most recent match they beat Varberg 1-0 at home. They could easily have scored two or even three goals. They had 58% ball possession and recorded more goal attempts, shots on and off goal, corner kicks and dangerous attacks. Furthermore, the generated 2.32 in xG – the visitors managed 0.87. Before this they lost to Halmstad 1-3 from home despite 60% ball possession. They were big underdogs in this match – priced around 5.20 to win on the betting market. The loss was very unlucky as Kalmar generated 1.54 in xG – Halmstad's number was just 0.67. This was yet another example of them being undervalued by the bookies!

哥德堡VS卡尔玛

北京时间周日晚，哥德堡欢迎卡尔玛参加瑞典阿尔斯温斯坎队在加姆拉乌利维的第17轮比赛。按照欧洲的标准，这个联赛的水平有些低，但仍然比芬兰的维卡斯利加(Veikkausliiga)好得多。在分析和下注奥尔斯温斯卡时，重要的是要意识到这个联赛的主场优势平均比大多数欧洲联赛要低得多。在这场比赛中，球迷和我们这些严肃的足球投注者不能指望这两支球队之间有一场特别高水平或有趣的比赛。哥德堡本赛季在他们的球场只赢了一场比赛!事实上，这是他们迄今为止在阿尔斯温斯坎的唯一一场胜利!可以理解的是，球迷本赛季对他们的球队非常失望，这显然开始对球员产生负面影响。我认为，博彩市场过于强调主场优势了。

哥德堡正经历一个糟糕透顶的赛季!事实上，他们是阿尔斯温斯坎垫底的球队，只有可怜的10分!是的，他们可以在比赛的各个方面都有所提高，但博彩公司似乎仍然过于强调他们的潜力，而忽视了哥德堡本赛季遇到的大问题。根据季前赛的深入分析，我大大降低了他们的能量评级!我相信显著的改善不会很快发生。它们的期望值(xPTS)为13.12。本赛季到目前为止，他们的进攻非常差劲，他们在阿尔斯温斯坎只有13次进球。这是联盟中最低的数字!他们的进攻缺乏速度、创造力和在对手球门附近传球的准确性。哥德堡的进攻结构在大多数比赛中也很糟糕。此外，他们的中场应该在进攻中更加活跃。他们的信心不足是可以理解的，这可以从进球失败和试图突破对手防线的关键传球中看出。据我所知，他们的团队精神也很差。此外，我认为他们的教练被高估了，在战术技巧方面不太好。哥德堡本赛季防守很好，丢了19个球。然而，我想强调的是，他们的失球数(xGA)是24.12。他们在最近的10场比赛中没有赢过一场。在他们最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场面对哈尔姆斯塔德，这是一场相当无聊的比赛——没有进球——哥德堡在这场比赛中是明显的热门——价格在2.05左右，可以拿到三分。哥德堡的预期进球数仅为0.49，而哈尔姆斯塔德的数字为0.43。

两队上一次交锋是在4月9日，当时的东道主卡尔玛以2-0轻松取胜。他们在xG记录了1.98 -哥德堡只产生了0.77。卡尔玛有57%的控球率，并且有更多的射门(6胜1负)和射门次数(14胜7负)。此外，哥德堡在两队最近的7场比赛中没有击败卡尔玛!即便如此，博彩公司认为他们是最受欢迎的人——获胜的赔率约为2.25。我强烈反对!根据我老练的、强有力的基于数据的专家分析，加上预期的阵容，卡尔玛应该是微弱的热门。显然明智的赌注是客队的+0.5个进球障碍选项。这里的进球预期比博彩公司认为的要低——主要是由于两支球队的进攻限制。总进球数少于2.5个的概率是64%。平局的概率是32%，这肯定不会让任何人感到惊讶。我还想提一下，上赛季卡尔玛排名第四，而东道主最终排名第八，落后卡尔玛6分。客队目前以25分排名第六。不过，他们的xpt数量只有23.04个。他们在阿尔斯温斯坎队有21次进球，但在大多数比赛中防守都很有组织，丢了21个球。xGA的值是18.12。事实上，他们在防守上对哥德堡的优势只是微乎其微。在最近的一场比赛中，他们在主场1-0击败了瓦尔伯格。他们本可以轻松地进两个甚至三个球。他们有58%的控球率，并且记录了更多的射门次数、射门次数、角球次数和危险进攻次数。此外，在xG中产生了2.32 -访客管理了0.87。在此之前，他们在主场1-3输给了哈尔姆斯塔德，尽管控球率高达60%。他们在这场比赛中处于劣势，在博彩市场上的胜率约为5.20英镑。这场失利是非常不幸的，卡尔玛在xG的得分为1.54，而哈尔姆斯塔德的得分只有0.67。这是他们被博彩公司低估的又一个例子!