Utrecht VS FC Twente

Utrecht host Twente for this Dutch Eredivisie round 29 battle at Stadion Galgenwaard Sunday evening Beijing time. This league is not among the top-4 leagues in the world but still offers good-level football for fans to watch - and for us to bet on! Most teams play beautiful, offensive football with a lot of short passes. We can expect a pretty entertaining match here as well between these two good teams. Twente currently occupy the 6th place in this league with a total of 18 clubs. They have 51 points to their account. They have netted the ball 48 times in this league so far and have allowed just 22 goals. I, most football journalists as well as the betting market have been surprised by their defensive capability! Their defense has a good structure and the defenders – who are not super-skilled individually, have made very few silly mistakes. However, I want to highlight that their number of expected goals allowed is significantly bigger. A lot has been written about Twente's defense during the season – especially in the Dutch football media – and this seems to have really started to affect the odds too much now.. I am positive the visitors will allow more than 0.60 goals per game during the rest of the season! The biggest, quite often relatively smart bookmakers who accept the biggest bets from customers have, in my opinion, the wrong favorite here. These bookies offer the visitors odds of around 2.40 to take all three points - at least at the time of writing this analysis early Sunday morning Beijing time. However, I do expect the odds on Utrecht to go down before the kickoff as smart money is expected to pile up on them. With the expected lineups the hosts are narrow favorites here. The visitors will be without Ugalde – Hilgers and Sadilek are questionable. As for the hosts, the situation of several players is unclear at the time of writing this analysis. Players to watch include for example Utrecht’s Anastasios Douvikas who has scored in four of his latest six competitive games and started this round of play as joint-top scorer in the Eredivisie with 14 goals. Let's hope he finds the net – the talent is there! Twente left back Gijs Smal recorded three assists against Cambuur last week and now has eight decisive passes to his account in this league

The home advantage in Eredivisie is substantial on average and this is the case here as well. Indeed, Twente have been on fire at home but pretty lame on the road. They have won just three away games in this league so far this season and have a score difference of 12:15. Yes, they are a little better team than the hosts by pure class but the home advantage makes Utrecht favorites here. The hosts have 42 points in the bank but in terms of expected points would have deserved more! Furthermore, they can improve further, especially defensively. They have allowed 42 goals and I would say that the midfielders should be more active in defending – they are a bit lazy sometimes. However, in front of loud and demanding fans I expect the hosts to give their very best today! They need points to secure their place in the UEFA Europa League Play Offs - top-8 that is. They are currently in 7th place. Twente do have a chance of making it to UEFA Europa League Qualification (top-3) but this seems highly improbable as they would have to topple Sparta Rotterdam and AZ Alkmaar – the latter are much better than Twente in my view.. In their most recent game Utrecht played very well despite the narrow 2-1 away from home win over Groningen. They had only 47% ball possession but recorded 16 scoring attempts – the hosts had just six. Furthermore, they defended in a solid way and only allowed the hosts one shot on goal - and recorded four themselves. Moreover, Utrecht generated 2.43 in expected goals (xG) – the hosts' number was just 0.37. Before this they were very unlucky not to beat Volendam at home. No goals were scored despite the hosts having close to 70% ball possession and a whopping 18 goal attempts and many more shots on goal, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks – 69-32. Their xG was 2.71 – Volendam created just 0.40. Twente on the other hand, crushed the rock-bottom team, Cambuur, 4-0 at home after a strong performance. However, Cambuur looked like a team without true motivation - they will almost certainly be relegated.. Their defense was simply abysmal and Twente recorded over 4.00 in xG. I do not give this match too much emphasis going into today's game.

北京时间周日晚，荷甲第29轮荷甲联赛第29轮，乌得勒支主场迎战特温特。这个联赛不在世界排名前 4 的联赛之列，但仍然提供高水平的足球比赛供球迷观看 - 并让我们下注！大多数球队都踢着漂亮的攻势足球，有很多短传。我们可以期待这两支优秀球队之间的精彩比赛。特温特目前以18支球队在联赛中排名第6。他们的帐户有 51 点。到目前为止，他们在这个联赛中打进了 48 球，只丢了 22 个球。我，大多数足球记者以及博彩市场都对他们的防守能力感到惊讶！他们的防守有一个很好的结构，而且防守者——他们个人技术并不超强，很少犯愚蠢的错误。但是，我想强调的是，他们允许的预期目标数量要多得多。关于特温特的防守已经写了很多在赛季中——尤其是在荷兰足球媒体中——现在这似乎真的开始对赔率产生太大影响。我很肯定客队在本赛季剩下的时间里每场比赛的进球数将超过 0.60 个！在我看来，接受客户最大赌注的最大、通常相对聪明的机构在这里有错误的偏爱。这些博彩公司为客队提供了大约 2.40 的数据来获得全部三分 - 至少在北京时间周日凌晨撰写此分析时是这样。然而，我确实预计乌得勒支队在开球前的胜算会下降，因为聪明的钱会堆积在他们身上。凭借预期的阵容，主队在这里是狭隘的最爱。客队将缺少 Ugalde——Hilgers 和 Sadilek 值得怀疑。至于主队，在撰写此分析时，几名球员的情况尚不清楚。值得关注的球员包括乌得勒支队的阿纳斯塔西奥斯·杜维卡斯，他在最近的六场比赛中有四场进球竞争激烈的比赛，并以 14 个进球作为荷甲联赛最佳射手开始了本轮比赛。让我们希望他能找到球网——天赋就在那里！ 特温特左后卫 Gijs Smal 上周在对阵 Cambuur 的比赛中贡献了 3 次助攻，现在他在联赛中有 8 次决定性传球

平均而言，荷甲的主场优势很大，这里也是如此。事实上，特温特在主场表现出色，但在客场表现不佳。本赛季到目前为止，他们在联赛中只赢了三个客场比赛，分差为12:15。是的，他们在纯级别上比东道主好一点，但主场优势让乌得勒支成为这里的热门。主队有 42 分，但就预期积分而言，他们应该得到更多！此外，他们可以进一步提高，尤其是在防守方面。他们已经丢了 42 个球，我想说中场球员应该更积极地防守——他们有时有点懒惰。然而，在响亮的面前和要求苛刻的球迷，我预计主队今天能全力以赴！他们需要积分来确保他们在 UEFA Europa League 附加赛中的位置 - 即前 8 名。他们目前排在第7位。特温特确实有机会进入欧洲联赛资格赛（前 3 名），但这似乎极不可能，因为他们必须击败鹿特丹斯巴达和阿尔克马尔——在我看来，后者比特温特好得多。在他们最近期比赛乌得勒支尽管客场2-1险胜格罗宁根，但发挥非常出色。他们只有 47% 的控球率，但记录了 16 次得分尝试——主队只有 6 次。此外，他们防守稳固，只让主队射门一次——而他们自己射门四次。此外，乌得勒支的预期进球数 (xG) 为 2.43，主队的进球数仅为 0.37。在此之前，他们很不幸没有在主场击败沃伦丹。尽管主队拥有接近 70% 的控球率和高达 18 个进球，但没有进球尝试次数和更多的射门次数、总传球次数、完成的传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数——69-32。他们的 xG 是 2.71 – Volendam 创造了 0.40。另一方面，特温特凭借强势表现在主场4-0击败垫底球队坎布尔。然而，Cambuur 看起来像是一支没有真正动力的球队——他们几乎肯定会降级。他们的防守简直糟糕透顶，特温特的预期进球超过 4.00。我不会过分强调这场比赛。