Huracan VS Argentinos Juniors

Huracan and Argentinos Juniors lock horns in this Argentinian Liga Profesional round 12 clash at Estadio Tomás Adolfo Duco in Buenos Aires Sunday morning Beijing time. This league is of worse level as a whole by global standards than many football fans probably think - taking into account what an awesome football country Argentina is in terms of football culture and – of course, Argentina lifted the World Cup trophy last December in Qatar! Huracan have undoubtedly been a disappointment so far this season and I have now clearly lowered their power rating from the sophisticated in-depth preseason analysis. The biggest, often sharp bookmakers have, luckily for my fans and me, reacted less and see the visitors only as pretty narrow favorites here – offering them odds of around 2.55 to take all three points. I disagree and with today's expected lineups I see the visitors as solid favorites here with a 44% chance of winning. However, all my fans and I need to make a profit is for the visitors not to lose. The hosts are missing Castro and Pizarro. Argentinos Juniors have three missing players: Ambrogio, Rodriguez and Torren. There is no denying the fact that Huracan have had big defensive problems in many games this season. Indeed, they have allowed 17 goals. This is the third highest number in this league with a total of 28 clubs. However, I need to mention their number of xGA is just 14.09. Taking into account the potential they have I do expect them to improve in this area but this will probably take quite a lot of time. Argentinos Juniors have a solid defense – with a lot of individual skill and a great structure. Offensively the difference in their favor is smaller though - they have scored 15 goals in Liga Profesional. The hosts have netted the ball 13 times.

Huracan have 12 points to their account but their number of expected points (xPTS) is somewhat higher. Yes,  last season Huracan finished in 4th place with 47 points but now the bookies fail to see how bad they are at the moment and seem to give the last season too much emphasis.  Even so, I do expect the hosts to climb up from the current 20th place. Their current form is abysmal and I was very disappointed with their performance just three days ago. In professional football having just two full days between matches is not optimal – a small edge for the visitors there. Huracan lost to the newly-promoted Belgrano 0-2 away from home and the hosts could have scored even more goals. They had just 54% ball possession but recorded many more goal attempts (13-4), shots on goal (5-1), total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. Huracan have now lost six of their most recent seven games! Before the Belgrano game they did not have much of a chance against a big club River Plate and lost 0-3 at home – again recording just one shot on goal. The visitors, on the other hand, are in fine form and have lost just one of their most recent eight games. In their most recent match they crushed Union de Santa Fe 5-1 at home after an impressive offensive performance. I would not be surprised to see them score several goals here!