Paok Saloniki vs AEK Athens

Aris host AEK Athens for this Greek Super League round 23 clash atToumba Stadium in Thessaloniki early Monday morning Beijing time. However, in reality the visitors have played just 21 matches so far. There is no doubt about the fact that AEK Athens are clearly the better team by pure class. Indeed, the visitors do have an edge in all areas of the game! The biggest difference between the teams in the visitors' favor is in offensive quality. Indeed, AEK Athens have netted the ball a whopping 44 times this season in this league so far. This is clearly the highest number in the Greek Super League. Panathinaikos, who currently top the standings with 54 points, have scored just 34 goals.. The visitors' number of expected goals (xG) is slightly smaller though. PAOK have scored 34 goals so far. PAOK, however, do have a relatively solid defense and in this area of the game the AEK Athens' edge is not massive. I believe PAOK will be pretty defensive, perhaps even cautious here against a very strong opponent – even in front of their demanding and loud home fans. A draw would probably be a somewhat satisfactory result for both teams - but particularly for the hosts. A low-scoring match is expected here and my probability estimation on the under 2.5 goals being scored is 71%. The probability of a draw is also much higher than on average in this league – 35% to be precise. The biggest, often somewhat bookmakers with the largest betting limits see PAOK as slim favorites here offering them odds of around 2.75 to send the visitors back to Athens empty-handed but I must disagree with this. According to my sophisticated in-depth analysis AEK deserve to be the favorites – but not very clear of course.

The visitors' defense has been stunningly solid this season, especially in this league. Indeed, they have conceded just nine goals. Furthermore, they have not allowed a single goal in their most recent three games. They have 50 points to their account and are in second place in the league table. The battle for the championship is fierce between the three best teams – Olympiacos are currently in third place with 46 points. I would indeed be very surprised to see PAOK challenging for the title this season. Last season they were much better and it seems that the bookies fail to fully realize how much their level has dropped.. They currently occupy the 4th place in the standings and this is also their place in my power rating that illustrates the teams' pure class. I believe they will find it very difficult to break the visitors' extremely well-structured defense that also has a lot of individual skill. AEK's defenders make very few mistakes - even against the good teams. They have been in stunning form for quite a long time already winning nine games in a row! On the 9th of this month they crushed Olympiacos 3-0 at home and did not allow the strong visitors any shots on goal! Moreover, Olympiacos only recorded two goal attempts. PAOK are in good for as well and have not lost a match for a pretty long time. Even so, the visitors have looked better than PAOK on the pitch recently. They have played three draws in their latest four games. I did not like their performance in their most recent game. It was a 2-2 draw away from home against a mediocre team, Asteras Tripolis. They were very clear favorites in this game – priced around 1.70 to win on the betting market but were only marginally the better team with 54% ball possession. Both teams recorded six shots on target. They would have to improve a lot from this game -  or get lucky -  to beat AEK..