Villarreal vs Barcelona

Villarreal and Barcelona lock horns in this Spanish LaLiga round 21 clash at Estadio de la Ceramica early Monday morning Beijing time. Football fans and bettors have every reason to expect a high-class and hopefully pretty entertaining battle! This is the second-best league in the world - after the English Premier League and we have done extremely well betting on it! Once again I see a lucrative betting opportunity here! Indeed, the biggest, often relatively sharp bookmakers that accept the biggest bets from customers see Barcelona as very clear favorites – offering odds of only around 1.80 for them to travel back to Catalonia with all three points in the pocket. . I must strongly disagree with the bookies! It is of course clear for everyone who follows LaLiga that Barcelona are the better team here. Villarreal cannot match Barcelona in any area of the game. Barcelona have netted the ball a whopping 42 times this season - this is the highest number in LaLiga – Real Madrid have scored 40 goals. Quite interestingly, their number of expected goals (xG) is even higher – 45.56 to be precise. Villarreal's offense is pretty good too. Their number of goals scored – 22 – is very misleading as their number of expected goals is 30.78! With that number of goals they would most probably have grabbed much more points than the actual 31. Their defense has been the key to success this season. They have allowed just 17 goals – the same number as Real Madrid, currently in second place with 45 points. However, in terms of expected goals allowed (xGA) they should have conceded more goals. I expect their excellent coach to play pretty defensive, perhaps even cautious football here against a very dangerous opponent.. Villareal have been the underdogs, even at home, against Real Madrid and Barcelona in most games during the past 10 years so the loyal and loud home fans surely understand and accept this game plan.. Villarreal will surely get their chances here – probably on counter attacks or through corner kicks or perhaps even a penalty kick. I believe they would be pretty satisfied with a draw. This result – with a probability of 28% - would be enough for my fans and I to extend the awesome winning streak betting on LaLiga with the recommended +0.5 goals handicap on the host. With the expected lineups I see Villareal having a 54% chance of taking at least a point.

The hosts will be missing N. Jackson due to a muscle injury, Lo Celso (leg), Moreno (calf) and Pedraza (thigh). As for Barcelona the list is shorter at the time of writing this preview Saturday afternoon Beijing time. The experienced S. Busquets is out because of an ankle injury, O. Dembele has a muscle injury and is also out. In LaLiga Barcelona have defended well allowing just seven goals so far. Yes, they have definitely surprised me positively in this area of the game but we must not let this number fool us. Their number of xGA is 16.03! Moreover, they have grabbed 53 points so far but their number of expected points (xPTS) is just 43.11. Villarreal, on the other hand, have taken 31 points and this is very close to their number of xPTS. Barcelona have improved as the season has progressed but have, as a result, unarguably become way too hot on the betting market! Let's not forget that they failed to qualify for the UEFA Champions League playoffs – for the second season in a row and will have to continue their international campaign in the UEFA Europa League. What a massive disappointment for a club of Barca's caliber. This proves that Barcelona are still pretty far from the glory days in the 2010s when they still had Leo Messi and many other super stars like Iniesta and the current coach, Xavi. They managed to take only seven points in Group C beating just a very lowly team at this level – Plzen. Bayern Munich humiliated them in Barcelona – 0-3 was the final score and in Germany it was 2-0. Inter, far from their best days as well, finished in second place in this group. Let's remember that Villrreal are often at their best as underdogs and once again proved this last spring in the Champions League beating Bayern Munich 1-0 at home. In Munchen it was a 1-1 draw. At the end Liverpool turned out to be too strong but Villarreal challenged them well. Villarreal are not quite at this level at the moment but would still earn much more respect in the betting market. They were, however, simply bad in their most recent match and lost to the rock-bottom team, Elche 1-3 away from home. I want to mention, though, that Elche played clearly above their normal level in this clash. Villarreal did have their chances too and had 72% ball possession. They recorded many more total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. The hosts,however, created more shots on goal and scoring chances. The final score is somewhat misleading and probably affects the odds too much here. Before this game Villarreal were unlucky to lose to a dangerous team, Rayo Vallecano, currently in 5th place, 0-1 at home despite recording 1.32 in xG – the visitors created just 0.74. We must remember how substantial the home advantage is here. Taking a look at data from the last 10 years, LaLiga has one of the biggest home advantages on average of the top-30 leagues in the world – excluding the matches played without crowd due to Covid-19 restrictions.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：

北京时间周一凌晨，西甲联赛第21轮比利亚雷亚尔和巴塞罗那在陶瓷球场展开激战。足球迷和投注者完全有理由期待一场高水平的、希望非常有趣的战斗!这是世界上第二好的联赛——仅次于英超联赛，我们在这方面做得非常好!我又一次看到了一个有利可图的赌博机会!事实上，那些接受客户最大赌注的规模最大、通常相对精明的博彩公司，将巴塞罗那视为非常明显的热门，为他们提供的赔率仅为1.80左右，让他们带着全部三分回到加泰罗尼亚。我坚决不同意博彩公司的说法!当然，对于每个关注西甲联赛的人来说，巴塞罗那是这里更好的球队。比利亚雷亚尔在任何方面都比不上巴萨。巴塞罗那本赛季进球数达到了惊人的42次，这是西甲联赛中最多的，而皇马已经进了40个球。非常有趣的是，他们的预期进球数量(xG)甚至更高——准确地说是45.56个。比利亚雷亚尔的进攻也很不错。他们的进球数是22个，这是非常具有误导性的，因为他们的预期进球数是30.78个!以这样的进球数，他们很可能会获得比实际的31分多得多的积分。他们的防守是本赛季成功的关键。他们只丢了17个球，与目前以45分排名第二的皇马相同。然而，就预期失球(xGA)而言，他们应该丢更多球。我希望他们优秀的教练在面对一个非常危险的对手时能踢出防守，甚至是谨慎的足球。在过去的10年里，即使在主场，比利亚雷亚尔在对阵皇马和巴萨的大多数比赛中都处于劣势，所以忠实的主场球迷肯定理解并接受这个比赛计划。比利亚雷亚尔肯定会在这里获得机会——可能是反击或角球，甚至可能是点球。我相信他们会对平局很满意。这个结果——有28%的概率——足以让我的球迷和我延续在西甲联赛上的连胜，并推荐东道主+0.5个进球。按照预期的阵容，我认为比利亚雷亚尔至少有54%的机会拿到一分。

东道主将因肌肉受伤而缺席n·杰克逊、洛·塞尔索(腿部)、莫雷诺(小腿)和佩德拉萨(大腿)。至于巴塞罗那，在北京时间周六下午写这篇预告时，名单比较短。经验丰富的布斯克茨因脚踝受伤缺席比赛，登贝莱也因肌肉受伤缺席比赛。在西甲联赛中，巴萨防守出色，到目前为止只丢了7球。是的，他们在这方面确实给了我很大的惊喜，但是我们不能让这个数字欺骗我们。他们的xGA数是16.03!另外，虽然目前已取得53分，但期望分数(xPTS)仅为43.11分。另一方面，比利亚雷亚尔已经拿到了31分，这与他们的xPTS数量非常接近。随着赛季的进展，巴塞罗那已经有所改善，但结果，毫无疑问，在博彩市场上变得太热了!别忘了，他们已经连续两个赛季无缘欧洲冠军联赛季后赛，不得不继续在欧联杯中征战国际赛场。对于巴萨这样的俱乐部来说，这是一个巨大的失望。这证明了巴塞罗那距离21世纪10年代的辉煌还很遥远，当时他们还有里奥·梅西和伊涅斯塔等许多超级巨星，以及现任教练哈维。他们在C组只拿到了7分，击败了一个级别非常低的球队——Plzen。拜仁慕尼黑在巴塞罗那羞辱了他们——最终比分是0-3，而在德国是2-0。国米也远没有达到他们最好的状态，在小组中排名第二。让我们记住，比利亚雷亚尔经常在不被看好的情况下处于最佳状态，去年春天在欧冠主场1-0击败拜仁慕尼黑再次证明了这一点。在慕尼黑，双方1-1战平。最后利物浦表现得太强大了，但是比利亚雷亚尔很好地挑战了他们。比利亚雷亚尔目前还没有达到这个水平，但仍然会在博彩市场上赢得更多的尊重。然而，他们在最近的一场比赛中表现糟糕，在客场1-3输给了排名垫底的埃尔切。我想说的是，埃尔切在这场比赛中表现得明显高于正常水平。比利亚雷亚尔也有机会，他们有72%的控球率。他们记录了更多的总传球、完成传球、进攻和危险的进攻。然而，东道主创造了更多的射门和得分机会。最终的分数有些误导，可能会对赔率产生太大影响。在这场比赛之前，比利亚雷亚尔不幸输给了一支危险的球队，雷约·巴列卡诺，目前在主场0-1排名第5，尽管他们的xG值为1.32，客队的xG值仅为0.74。我们必须记住，主场优势在这里是多么重要。看看过去10年的数据，西甲在世界排名前30位的联赛中拥有平均最大的主场优势之一——不包括因新冠疫情限制而没有观众的比赛。