If Newcastle is really so big favorite?
2023-02-04

Przem

外籍分析师

英超

02/05 01:30

已完赛

纽卡斯尔
1:0
西汉姆联
解读理由:

In my opinion West Ham have bigger chances to make positive result than bookies wants to suggest for us in their odds. +1.5 AH on away side looks like very safe bet to play.

In previous season West Ham won here 4:2 so I believe they coming for this game without big fear.

West Ham today without any new absences so their line up should look exactly the same like in previous round. We will see on the pitch two key midfielders - Paqueta and Rice. On the other hand Newcastle is without their one of the best player in current season - key central midfielder Bruno Guimaraes (3 goals & 3 assists). That should have very bad impact on their performance today. Newcastle failed to win in all 3 matches without him in current season.

Newcastle coming for this game after win against Southampton in EFL Cup - they qualified for big final at Wembley. What is interesting - in last 13 matches when team not from BIG6 made final, recorded only 2 wins in next league game. I not will be surprised to see the same story today.

West Ham situation in league table is very bad, but they plays much better than their results looks. West Ham scored 17 goals, but according to the expected goals scored model they should score 26.8. Hammer's conceded 25 goals, but according to the expected goals conceded model they should concede 22.6. It's big difference.

I believe West Ham is able to play very close match against Newcastle today. Lines are simply too high.


在我看来,西汉姆联有更大的机会取得积极的结果,客队 +1.5 看起来是非常安全的选择。

上个赛季,西汉姆在这里以 4:2 获胜,所以我相信他们不会有太大的恐惧来参加这场比赛。

西汉姆今天没有任何新的缺席,所以他们的阵容看起来应该和上一轮完全一样。我们将在球场上看到两名关键的中场球员——帕奎塔和赖斯。另一方面,纽卡斯尔没有他们本赛季最好的球员之一——关键的中场球员布鲁诺吉马良斯(3 球和 3 次助攻)。这应该会对他们今天的表现产生非常糟糕的影响。纽卡斯尔在本赛季没有他的情况下未能全部赢得三场比赛。

纽卡斯尔在联赛杯中击败南安普顿后参加了这场比赛——他们有资格参加在温布利举行的重要决赛。有趣的是——在过去13场非BIG6球队进入决赛的比赛中,下一场联赛只取得了2场胜利。我不会惊讶地看到今天也是同样的情况。

西汉姆在联赛积分榜上的情况很糟糕,但他们的表现比他们的成绩看起来要好得多。西汉姆打进 17 球,但根据预期进球模型,他们应该进 26.8 球。

西汉姆联丢了 25 个球,但根据预期的丢球模型,他们应该丢 22.6 个球。这是很大的不同。

我相信西汉姆今天能够与纽卡斯尔进行一场势均力敌的比赛。

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