Casa Pia VS Trofense

Casa Pia welcome Trofense for this Portuguese League Cup round at Estádio Nacional do Jamor in Lisbon – Oeiras late Sunday evening Beijing time. Neither team have taken a win so far in this competition so far. More specifically, both have one defeat and a draw to their account. There is no doubt about the fact that Casa Pia are the favorites here. They have an edge over Trofense in all areas of the game. However, their odds are way too low in my opinion! I see them having a 59% to take all three points today. However, their offense is not very strong which make is hard for them them to cover the -1.5 goals' handicap here. Indeed, they have won just two their most recent 14 matches by more than one goal's difference. Both wins came over very small team in Portuguese Cup. On the 16th of October they beat Sao Maritimo 2-0 away from priced round 1.30 to win by the bookies. Furthermore, on the 9th of November they beat another very small team Valadares Gaia 2-0 at home priced below 1.15 to win. It was not a very convincing performance! Casa Pia were promoted to Liga Portugal for this season and have played much better than expected.I have, as result, raised their power rating that illustrates the teams' pure class. However, the bookies have got carried away be their performances and clearly over-value them once again here. They are in the 5th place in this league with a total of 18 teams. They have grabbed 23 points and have a score difference of 13:10. However, in terms of expected points (xPTS) they have been quite lucky. They would have deserved just 10.25 points.. I would be very surprised to see them finish in the top-8.. Many of their players, especially several defenders and midfielders have played above their actual level so far and this cannot go on for much longer.

I expect Trofense to be the slightly more motivated team here. For the hosts this competition is not the main priority. Trofense have had a very disappointing season so far in Liga Portugal2 and League Cup is a good chance for them to get positive results and boost to their self-confidence too before Liga Portugal2 continues after the break. They have grabbed just eight points so far and are in the 17th place. However, their xPTS is 12.35 and have the potential to significantly climb up the standings.. The bookies seem to have lost faith in them by now – I have not. They have had surprisingly big defensive problems this season but defended well as clear underdogs in their most recent match against Pacos Ferreira. It was a 1-1 draw at home after a somewhat balanced match. The visitors, who play in Liga Portugal, only recorded three shots on goal. They have not won a game for quite a long time - but we would win if they avoid losing by more than one goals' difference. The chance is 69%! Casa Pia are also in bad form at the moment and have suffered two losses and taken one draw in their three most recent matches. Casa Pia, too, played a 1-1 draw against P. Ferreira some three weeks ago but recorded just one shot on goal and did not really deserve even the one point..

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Casa Pia VS Trofense

北京时间周日晚，卡萨皮亚将在里斯本奥伊拉斯球场Estádio国家体育场欢迎特伦芬斯参加这轮葡萄牙联赛杯。到目前为止，两队都没有在这场比赛中取得胜利。更具体地说，双方都有一场失利和一场平局。毫无疑问，Casa Pia在这里是最受欢迎的。他们在游戏的所有领域都比特伦芬斯有优势。然而，在我看来，他们的几率太低了!我认为他们今天有59%的几率拿下这三分。然而，他们的进攻不是很强大，这使得他们很难在这里弥补-1.5个进球的障碍。事实上，在最近的14场比赛中，他们仅以1球以上的优势赢了两场比赛。两场胜利都是在葡萄牙杯的一个小球队身上取得的。10月16日，他们以2-0击败了Sao Maritimo，赢得了博彩公司的冠军。此外，在11月9日，他们在价格低于1.15的主场以2-0击败了另一支非常小的球队Valadares Gaia。这不是一场令人信服的表演!卡萨皮亚本赛季升入了葡萄牙甲级联赛，他们的表现比预期要好得多。因此，我提高了他们的功率等级，这说明了团队的纯粹等级。然而，博彩公司被他们的表现冲昏了头脑，显然再次高估了他们的价值。他们在这个共有18支球队的联赛中排名第五。他们已经拿到23分，比分相差13:10。然而，就预期积分(xPTS)而言，他们是相当幸运的。他们只应该得到10.25分。如果他们能进入前8，我会非常惊讶。到目前为止，他们的许多球员，尤其是几名后卫和中场球员的表现都超出了他们的实际水平，这种情况不会持续太久。

我希望特伦芬斯会是一支更有动力的球队。对于东道主来说，这场比赛并不是首要任务。到目前为止，特伦芬斯本赛季在西甲的表现非常令人失望，联赛杯对他们来说是一个很好的机会，他们可以取得积极的成绩，并在休息后继续进行的西甲比赛中增强自信。到目前为止，他们只拿到了8分，排在第17位。然而，他们的xPTS是12.35，有潜力显著攀升的排名。博彩公司现在似乎已经对他们失去了信心——我没有。本赛季他们的防守出现了令人惊讶的大问题，但在最近对阵帕科斯·费雷拉的比赛中，他们防守得很好，显然处于劣势。两队在主场1-1战平，双方的比赛有些平衡。客队在葡萄牙甲级联赛中只有3次射门。他们已经很长一段时间没有赢过一场比赛了，但如果他们能避免超过一球的差距输掉比赛，我们就会赢。几率是69%!卡萨皮亚目前的状态也很糟糕，他们在最近的三场比赛中输了两场，取得了一场平局。卡萨皮亚也在三周前1-1战平了费雷拉，但只射正了一球，连1分都配不上。