Crewe Alexandra VS Newport County

Crewe welcome Newport for this English League Two round 20 battle at Alexandra Stadium early Saturday morning Beijing time. This league is definitely of better quality than any other country's fourth level. Most teams play pretty straight forward, physically demanding football. Players are not very skilled but are expected to fight hard. The largest, usually pretty sharp bookmakers soo the visitors as favorites here. I cannot agree with this with today's expected line ups. Crewe currently occupy the 15th place with a total of 25 points. They have netted the ball 17 times and allowed 20. The visitors, on the other hand, have been somewhat disappointing so far this season. They are currently in 18th place with 19 points in the pocket. Their goal difference is 18:22. Last season they finished in 11th place but I expect them too be worse this season.

Both teams have had a pretty solid defense by League Two standards this but lack offensive structure and creativity to reach top-7. The goal expectancy here is, in my opinion lower than the betting market estimates. I would set the number at 2.02, the betting market at around 2.15. The draw would surprise no one and would be enough to bring my fans and me yet another winner betting on this very profitable league (for us) with the +0.5 goals handicap on Crewe. They should be the favorites here and our chance of winning is 72%. Crewe were relegated from League One after a very bad last season but should be able to do pretty well at this level – better than the 15th for sure. The bookies seem to have ”lost hope” in them but I have not lowered their power rating too much despite the unarguably difficult early season. They have, however, clearly improved a their level lately. They did lose to Bansley in their most recent match though. It was a FA match away from home and Barnsley, a team who play in League One, deserved the win but the 3-0 final score is still misleading. Crewe did have their chances and the hosts only recorded 53% ball possession. Nevertheless, before this they took four wins – without conceding a single goal! Very impressive especially in terms of defense. Their midfielders actively participate in defensing as well – definitely a good sign moving forward. They have good home fans to boost them against an out-of-form opponent. Indeed, Newport have suffered a defeat in all four of their most recent five games. They have allowed nine goals in these matches and seem to be low in confidence and shaky in defense at the moment. They can improve in this area of the game but I am not sure if they are going to win anyway.. Their manager will surely try to shutdown Crewe here but this would hurt their offense and they are definitely over-valued on the betting market!

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克鲁·亚历山德拉VS新港县

北京时间周六凌晨，克鲁队在亚历山德拉体育场欢迎纽波特队参加英乙联赛第20轮的比赛。这个联赛的质量绝对比其他任何国家的四级联赛都要高。大多数球队踢的都是直截了当、体力要求很高的足球。球员技术不是很好，但被期望努力战斗。规模最大、通常相当精明的博彩公司认为游客在这里是最受欢迎的。我不同意今天的阵容。克鲁目前以25分排名第15。他们17次得分，失球20次。另一方面，客队本赛季到目前为止有些令人失望。他们目前以19分的优势排在第18位。他们的净胜球是18:22。上赛季他们排在第11名，但我预计他们本赛季也会更糟。

按照英乙联赛的标准，这两支球队都有相当稳固的防守，但缺乏进攻结构和创造力，无法进入前七。在我看来，这里的目标预期比博彩市场的估计要低。我会把数字定在2.02，而博彩市场定在2.15左右。平局不会让任何人感到惊讶，这足以让我的球迷和我在这个非常赚钱的联赛中(对我们来说)赌上另一个赢家，克鲁有+0.5的进球数。他们应该是最受欢迎的，我们获胜的几率是72%。克鲁在上个赛季表现非常糟糕后从英甲降级，但在这个级别应该可以做得很好——肯定比第15名要好。博彩公司似乎对他们“失去了希望”，但我并没有降低他们的实力评级太多，尽管赛季初毫无疑问的困难。然而，他们最近明显提高了自己的水平。不过他们在最近的比赛中确实输给了班斯利。这是一场客场的英足总比赛，巴恩斯利，一支在英甲踢球的球队，理应获得胜利，但3:0的最终比分仍然具有误导性。克鲁确实有机会，东道主只有53%的控球率。然而，在此之前，他们取得了四场胜利——一球未失!非常令人印象深刻，特别是在防守方面。他们的中场球员也积极参与防守，这绝对是一个向前发展的好迹象。他们有良好的主场球迷支持他们对抗状态不佳的对手。事实上，新港在最近的五场比赛中四场都遭遇了失败。在这些比赛中，他们已经丢了9球，目前他们的信心似乎很低，防守也不稳定。他们在这方面可以提高，但我不确定他们是否会赢。他们的教练肯定会试图关闭克鲁，但这将损害他们的进攻，他们在博彩市场上肯定被高估了!