Club Brugge Ⅱ VS FCV Dender

Club BruggeⅡ welcome Dender for this Challenger Pro League round 15 cash at The Nest in Roeselare early Saturday morning Beijing time. This is the second-highest tier of Belgian football and is of decent level by European standards – better than for example the Finnish Veikkausliiga. The largest, usually quite sharp bookies see the the hosts favorites at the time of writing this, however, I would not be surprised to see the visitors as narrow favorites by the start of the match. I see Dender having a 43% chance of winning. The goal expectancy here is higher than in most top leagues on average but is still, in my opinion, lower than the betting market estimates. The probability of a draw is 29%. This league and would be enough for my fans and me to win with the recommended handicap option of +0.5 goals on Dender. They are a pretty defensive team and are usually not aim to avoiding risk especially away from home. Quite interestingly they have been better on the road than in front of their home fans. Indeed, they have lost just once away from home. Their goal difference away from home is 9:4.

Dender were promoted to this league for this season and do not have massive offensive talent in the team. Well-organized defense is the way for them to succeed. This strategy is probably easier to execute away from home without the pressure to entertain the quite demanding home fans. Either by players' individual skill level they cannot match the top teams. Their coach Regi van Acker seems to be very good at organizing the defense and midfield into a solid unit! The bookies really should stop underestimating this quite small by financial resources club. I believe they have a genuine chance to even make it to the top-6 - and play in the Promotion Group later this season. According to my sources they also have an amazingly good team spirit. In terms of offensive capability the hosts do have an edge but not as big as the number of goals scored - 25 and 17 would reflect! Defensively Dender are massively better. Dender have in better form lately - the hosts have not won any of their latest four games and were massively dominated by Beerschot in their most recent match away from home. They did not really convince me even in in their previous 4-5 matches before the Beerschot game. They could easily have lost 3-0 or 4-1 but 1-0 was the final score. Dender, on the other hand, were excellent in their most recent match and beat Anderlecht U23, a strong team 2-1 at home as underdogs. Dender have taken 18 points so far but their number of expected points (xPTS) is 23. As for Club Brugge II the xPTS is 18 and actual number of points is 17.